September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Timmy Supercell]

.  Dark clouds !  .

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs still showing drier but cooler conditions headed into early October. Makes sense considering how wet it has been this month.

[jcmcgaffey]

Nice list. But these all look like assumptions and personal opinions rather than scientifically based facts and predictions. And the further down the list you go you start getting into opinions and assumptions bolstered by previously stated opinions and assumptions.

 

I can link you to some actual peer reviewed literature on the subject once I get back to my home computer tonight, if you’d like. But considering the fact that you even admit you are sort of just playing devil’s advocate in the last point shouldn’t make it hard for you to see why I feel like spending any more energy on this is essentially just a waste of my time.

Sure. I take it then you disagree with all the statements above. I don’t think my statements above were ridiculous enough that they are not worth time discussing.

[TT-SEA]

Gfs still showing drier but cooler conditions headed into early October. Makes sense considering how wet it has been this month.

 

 

Snow for Jared to start October!

 

[snow_wizard]

18Z 850 temps are most certainly warmer than last run, but I'm not sure about the surface.

 

The surface pressure gradients are very favorable for cold nights on this run.  It will be interesting to see how the final details work out.

[TacomaWaWx]

Snow for Jared to start October!

 

Hopefully we can get some cold clear nights. Looks like a cool crisp pattern overall, big time change from 55+ nights for most of the last 3 months. Looks like a good chance for some early snowfall in the cascades as well maybe even as low as Stevens pass this weekend.

[snow_wizard]

This is some interesting stuff. I have actually read that the seed time for many of those giant Douglas firs high in the Wenatchee mountains (well above their current growth zone) was actually BEFORE the little ice age, back during the Medieval warm period.

 

That is quite interesting indeed.  It sounds like they actually happened higher up at one time then.  The hill I'm referring to lies within the 3000 to 4000 foot range.  There are still new Doug fir trees growing in that altitude range.  The next mountain over is over 6000 feet and the cutoff for Doug fir is about 4500 to 5000.  After that it goes into larch and alpine type fir trees.  As I mentioned earlier it's amazing that such huge fir trees were ever able to grow in such a relatively dry climate zone.  They are spaced fairly far apart, but there are a lot of them.

 

It sounds like the Medieval warm period must have been warmer in the NW than present.

[Deweydog]

Nice day and nice 18z.

[Timmy Supercell]

Nice day and nice 18z.

 

How about we post a model run that has consumed a few less shots? 

 

#DrunkUncleRuns

[Timmy Supercell]

.  Rain coming down moderately. Loving it.  .

[Blizzard777]

.  Rain coming down moderately. Loving it.  .

Been kind of sucky here along with the game...mist rain at times here and just blah

[Blizzard777]

.26 and looks like precipitation is about to end

63*

[TacomaWaWx]

.26 and looks like precipitation is about to end

63*

.31 and 62 degrees here, definitely think the precip is winding down for the day.

[snow_wizard]

1971 has been consistently coming up as a top analog to the coming pattern.  Fabulous / cold fall and a great winter especially for WA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well many of you aren't going to like the 18z...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.41" of rain today.

[Deweydog]

18z looks nice and crispy to me.

[Phil]

1) the summers are not going to keep getting drier

In the paleo record, warming periods have always coincided with an expansion of the Pacific Hadley Cell and 4CH, which would almost certainly lead to drier summers in the PNW should that trend continue. It’s one of the most consistent relationships we know of. So I think you’re wrong on this one.

 

That being said, that massive system of circulation varies wildly on its own over long periods of time, and much of the swing from the LIA to WWII was likely natural in origin.

 

2) The recent dry summers were not caused by climate change

In the general sense I think this is true..the 2014-18 period was highly anomalous, but it existed within a long term background state trending towards widened ITCZ/Hadley Cells/+NAM, which has been ongoing since ~ 1700AD. So you have to figure that into the equation.

 

3) Storms are going to be stronger and we will see more heavy rain events and temps will get warmer due to climate change.

This is NOT a given at the regional level. Assuming the climate warms as GCMs expect (lol) there will be very significant differences from region to region..some areas well even cool (such as the NATL/southern Greenland).

 

4) More trees are killed by storms (rain/wind) than drought or dry weather

That depends where and when your analysis takes place.

[GHweatherChris]

This tree debate is dumb.

[Phil]

This is some interesting stuff. I have actually read that the seed time for many of those giant Douglas firs high in the Wenatchee mountains (well above their current growth zone) was actually BEFORE the little ice age, back during the Medieval warm period.

Could it have been back in the late 1200s/early 1300s at the tail end of the MWP, when the ISM was weakening rapidly and seasonality was significantly reduced with warm/very wet conditions across NW North America?

 

A multitude of proxies suggest there was a 100-150yr period of almost uninterrupted +EPO/SW flow as high latitude temperatures were plummeting (along with NATL and IO SSTs). It was such a different climate state then..eventually that climatological gradient tightened and it went cold/wet then frigid/dry in the PNW by the mid/late 1400s, as far as I know.

[Deweydog]

This tree debate is dumb.

Yeah, let’s get back to Phil’s vacation.

[GHweatherChris]

Yeah, let’s get back to Phil’s vacation.

He said he sent you his nude selfies from Haida Gwaii so I let it go.

[Timmy Supercell]

Yeah, let’s get back to Phil’s vacation.

 

Phil Niño 2019-2020

[snow_wizard]

Could it have been back in the late 1200s/early 1300s at the tail end of the MWP, when the ISM was weakening rapidly and seasonality was significantly reduced with warm/very wet conditions across NW North America?

 

A multitude of proxies suggest there was a 100-150yr period of almost uninterrupted +EPO/SW flow as high latitude temperatures were plummeting (along with NATL and IO SSTs). It was such a different climate state then..eventually that climatological gradient tightened and it went cold/wet then frigid/dry in the PNW by the mid/late 1400s, as far as I know.

 

Glad I wasn't here during that century of +EPO and SW flow.  Yuck!

 

BTW...that progression is obvious even in much shorter term pattern evolutions.  Warm / dry, warm / wet, cool / wet, cold / dry.  I used that to deduce we were probably going to have a significant cold snap after all of the rain.

[Deweydog]

He said he sent you his nude selfies from Haida Gwaii so I let it go.

All these years I had assumed he was circumcised. Life is full of surprises!

[Omegaraptor]

Rain event seems to have busted here. 0.13" at Hillsboro despite a forecast of almost half an inch yesterday.

[Front Ranger]

This tree debate is dumb.

Wind, rain, fire, drought...

 

So many ways the poor trees can bite the dust.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

He said he sent you his nude selfies from Haida Gwaii so I let it go.

The down-low angle too so as to see the treetops.

[TT-SEA]

Wind, rain, fire, drought...

 

So many ways the poor trees can bite the dust.

Nature is cruel.

 

And the climate is always changing.

 

And we are only here for a brief moment in time.

 

As Matt says... sh*t happens.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Rain event seems to have busted here. 0.13" at Hillsboro despite a forecast of almost half an inch yesterday.

Been super wet here. Your east Yamhill and Washington county donut hole continues to rear its ugly head.

[Timmy Supercell]

Been super wet here. Your east Yamhill and Washington county donut hole continues to rear its ugly head.

 

Not the way it used to be before I moved here. The good years...

[Front Ranger]

Nature is cruel.

 

And the climate is always changing.

 

And we are only here for a brief moment in time.

 

As Matt says... sh*t happens.

Exactly. Deregulate logging.

[MossMan]

Going to be a wraw wet wild Woolley winter!

[TT-SEA]

Exactly. Deregulate logging.

No... we should keep a clean house during our short time here. But the universe marches on with perpetual change and nature is cruel.

[Omegaraptor]

Been super wet here. Your east Yamhill and Washington county donut hole continues to rear its ugly head.

 

Never mind lol. Coming down decently hard here now. Looks like there's a yellow-orange blob right near me on the radar.

[Omegaraptor]

Well that intensified quickly. Still coming down. Looks like the street is completely covered in water.

[Deweydog]

Our maples look fantastic this year.

[Timmy Supercell]

.  Still not many colors until probably early October here  .  .

[MossMan]

Lots of color happening at the top of Stevens Pass yesterday!

[Requiem]

Downpour over the West Hills and still pouring as I type.