September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

The rent in your brain is too high.

#poorjess

[jcmcgaffey]

Humans can die from too much water too.

 

Much more common to see dehydration deaths, though.

actually more people die from water than dehydration...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Precip was pretty much normal here over the summer... Meaning...Not much, but not completely dry. 

[Jesse]

#poorjess

#stolenreimbursedsummer

[Front Ranger]

actually more people die from water than dehydration...

Not talking about drowning, of course.

[ShawniganLake]

actually more people die from water than dehydration...

I think he was talking about over hydration and not drowning. Perhaps you were being sarcastic though

[TT-SEA]

Look at the past 3 or 4 runs of the 12Z ECMWF at 120 hours... noticeable shift eastward and less amplified.

[Deweydog]

Trending east!!!

 

-Timmy

[TT-SEA]

My wife has a big work event on Thursday that is partially outdoors so I have been tracking it closely.   It looked really wet for several runs in a row... now it looks basically dry on the last couple runs including the new 12Z ECMWF.

 

[Deweydog]

My wife has a big work event on Thursday that is partially outdoors so I have been tracking it closely. It looked really wet for several runs in a row... now it looks basically dry on the last couple runs including the new 12Z ECMWF.

 

We have some friends having an outdoor wedding on November 16th.

[TT-SEA]

A little wetter on Friday afternoon... but not bad.

 

[Phil]

Probably when the original owners cleared this portion of the property to build it changed how the water went. I’m sure glad everyone knows my property better than I do! Sorry big guy, we are not dying of dehydration up here...even though you wish we were so you can continue your everything is dying agenda.

There’s no new water supply there..just the stripping of nutrients/organic material from the soil via erosion following the lot clearing/loss of vegetation. Which decreases water uptake by the soil, hence your ponding of water there. Which renders those trees depleted of nutrients, timed perfectly to the recent hot/dry summers.

 

Clearing a lot will accelerate erosion, which is what you’re seeing in that picture. It won’t change/reverse the direction of runoff. Or cause ponding that wasn’t already happening beneath the underbrush.

[GHweatherChris]

Technically true for JJA.

 

But from June 18th - August 31st... it rained more frequently than normal in many areas of the PNW. That is the majority of the summer. And yet it was also warmer than normal... thanks to the high humidity.

 

In the spirit of long range forecasting and based on my experience personally... Phil did a good job and provided a good guide to this summer. Its not the same as a forecast contest.

You can't simply ignore 17 days in June from the stats, that is all.

[Deweydog]

Better pattern for getting us some of the good continental .

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim has fantasies where our climate is like that of Baja and Jesse dreams of the PNW turning into SE Alaska.

[jcmcgaffey]

To be fair, this is not what you were saying before.

I accidentally typed a double negative on the last sentence but what I said is exactly what I originally said. Not sure why it is so confusing. Just making the statement that more trees die from too much rain than drought around here and concerns that climate change is going to create more drought is not what most local studies show. They show more heavy rain and warmer weather for the northwest and also the nw is to going to be affected less than most other parts of the world. So in reality if we are very concerned about climate change and tree die off we should be more concerned about more rain and warmer weather. Although I do see trees dying from the recent hot and dry summers but I think that is a short term issue overall outside of possible a few trees.

[Phil]

Not disputing your regional analysis.

 

But July and August were wetter than normal in the Seattle area and out here.

 

It normally rains on 13 days total in the Snoqualmie Valley in July and August combined. This year... it rained on 24 days in July and August. The rain was much more frequent than normal up here in July and August. And it felt like it was raining more often than normal... because it was. We never had to water at all the entire summer for the first time in 15 years.

 

So I am giving Phil credit based on my experience. You don't have to... that is fine.

 

It certainly seemed like there was a "much better moisture transport" this summer as he predicted.

Dude, Jared would rather castrate himself than give me credit for a seasonal forecast.

[TT-SEA]

You can't simply ignore 17 days in June from the stats, that is all.

Spirit of the long range forecast. Not judging by stats for JJA. You can certainly do that if you want. I treat this differently than a forecast contest.

 

And I would be the first to call out a completely wrong forecast.

[TacomaWaWx]

Yep. Then add in June and you're looking at a very normal summer on average. A little drier than average overall most places.

Yeah that’s accurate.

[ShawniganLake]

[TT-SEA]

Tim has fantasies where our climate is like that of Baja and Jesse dreams of the PNW turning into SE Alaska.

Nah... I stay in the bounds of normal for my area. We are free to move if we don't like it.

[jcmcgaffey]

Most places, most the rain fell on a handful of days. And again, that's disregarding what was a very dry June for much of the area...that's one third of the summer.

 

Overall, a very average summer in the precip department historically. That's what the stats say.

One of the muggiest ever stat wise. I think this summer was similar to what summers will more likely be like in the future.

[GHweatherChris]

Spirit of the long range forecast. Not judging by stats for JJA. You can certainly do that if you want. I treat this differently than a forecast contest.

 

And I would be the first to call out a completely wrong forecast.

With this logic stats shouldn't be observed at all then, for anything.

[ShawniganLake]

That’s some Purdy blocking across the arctic.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z ensemble bascially doubles the duration of the really chilly stuff as compared to earlier runs.  Also...the blob is rapidly breaking up and will get decimated by the coming pattern change.  Everything is falling into place nicely!

 

 

[snow_wizard]

That’s some Purdy blocking across the arctic.

 

No way this is not a good sign given the context of this year.  

[TT-SEA]

With this logic stats shouldn't be observed at all then, for anything.

Not true. But a couple stats don't always tell the whole story.

[Jesse]

Tim has fantasies where our climate is like that of Baja and Jesse dreams of the PNW turning into SE Alaska.

Our climate turning into the PNW of the 1950s-70s would be just fine with me.

[Phil]

This is getting silly.

 

The original forecast I made (back in March) for PNW precipitation spanned the entire “warm season”. It was not confined to J/J/A and those arbitrary cutoff dates. You cannot cherry-pick time intervals of a *seasonal forecast* down to the day/hour like that. I would never place such absurd cutoff dates on a seasonal forecast.

 

If you believe you can do that, you’re a moron. Plain and simple.

[GHweatherChris]

Not true. But a couple stats don't always tell the whole story.

Real precip totals observed and documented do for an accurate timeframe.

[Jesse]

I accidentally typed a double negative on the last sentence but what I said is exactly what I originally said. Not sure why it is so confusing. Just making the statement that more trees die from too much rain than drought around here and concerns that climate change is going to create more drought is not what most local studies show. They show more heavy rain and warmer weather for the northwest and also the nw is to going to be affected less than most other parts of the world. So in reality if we are very concerned about climate change and tree die off we should be more concerned about more rain and warmer weather. Although I do see trees dying from the recent hot and dry summers but I think that is a short term issue overall outside of possible a few trees.

You keep making all of these claims, but they are wrong. And repeating them over and over again won’t make them right. This whole post just comes off a bunch of poorly written bullshi**ing to be frank.

[ShawniganLake]

The 12z ensemble bascially doubles the duration of the really chilly stuff as compared to earlier runs. Also...the blob is rapidly breaking up and will get decimated by the coming pattern change. Everything is falling into place nicely!

Will that high pressure sitting offshore not just likely relocate the blob further to the west.

[GHweatherChris]

This is getting silly.

 

The original forecast I made (back in March) for PNW precipitation spanned the entire “warm season”. It was not confined to J/J/A and those arbitrary cut-off dates. You cannot cherry-pick time intervals of a *seasonal forecast* down to the day/hour like that.

 

If you believe otherwise, you’re a moron. Plain and simple.

There is only 4 seasons, I don't recall "warm" being the name of any of them, just saying...

[Requiem]

Much less amplified and cold EURO run in general.

[TT-SEA]

Real precip totals observed and documented do for an accurate timeframe.

There is more to the story. Just like some days are darker than other days.

 

On a broad scale... and based on personal experience... I think Phil made a good call in the spirit of long range forecasting.

[TT-SEA]

Much less amplified and cold EURO run in general.

Really nice run in my opinion. Not much rain at all... and more sun.

[jcmcgaffey]

You keep making all of these claims, but they are wrong. And repeating them over and over again won’t make them right. This whole post just comes off a bunch of bullshi**ing to be frank.

only doing so because it seemed that you are confused. I am not trying to start a fight and am interested on hearing other people’s thoughts (probably on another thread). I was just playing devils advocate a little yesterday after I had noticed a lot of trees down the last few weeks along the trails that I typically run along and it made me think about that. It’s not all hard facts some are just thoughts based off of the articles I have read from local climatologists.

[Requiem]

Really nice run in my opinion. Not much rain at all... and more sun.

 

Meh, I'd prefer colder to sunnier, but you do you.

[Phil]

This is getting silly.

 

The original forecast I made (back in March) for PNW precipitation spanned the entire “warm season”. It was not confined to J/J/A and those arbitrary cutoff dates. You cannot cherry-pick time intervals of a *seasonal forecast* down to the day/hour like that. I would never place such absurd cutoff dates on a seasonal forecast.

 

If you believe you can do that, you’re a moron. Plain and simple.

This gets repeated ad-nauseam yet the message never seems to get through. Seasonal forecasts cannot possibly have sharp time intervals, because the methods used to predict on such timescales do not allow for such precision. It’s impossible.

 

Please remember this. A “summer prediction” I make will never arbitrarily cut off a June 1st or September 1st.

[snow_wizard]

I wear shorts all through winter, our cold isn't that cold.

 

Usually that is.  You would have looked pretty foolish in Jan 1950 or Jan 1930 or even Dec 2008 for instance.