September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

In other news, good chance Pelosi just threw the 2020 election to Trump today. Jesus H. Christ.

 

 

Moot point.    The Dems can't put up an electable candidate anyways... and have gone way too far left and nutty.   Trump is pretty entertaining in his buffoonery and I prefer conservative policies (for the most part) compared to the alternative I am seeing on the other side.   

 

Give me a sane Republican to replace Trump and they have my vote!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Moot point.    The Dems can't put up an electable candidate anyways... and have gone way too far left and nutty.   Trump is pretty entertaining in his buffoonery and I prefer conservative policies (for the most part) compared to the alternative I am seeing on the other side.   

 

Give me a sane Republican to replace Trump and they have my vote!  

 

Only Mitt can save us!

[Requiem]

We should elect Demiurge, the Gnostic god of creation. 

[Phil]

We avoided a big October cold snap. That would have been the winter cancel card.

So a cold snap this October = winter cancel?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So a cold snap this October = winter cancel?

 

Yep. Thinking about 2002-03 gives me PTSD.

[MossMan]

Yeah, I keep it right next to my cooled seats and my manicure kit.

I knew it! Cooled seats are the best, aren’t they!

[Jesse]

Yep. Thinking about 2002-03 gives me PTSD.

 

Don't even get me started on the crapfests of 2006-07, 2003-04, 1995-96, 1985-86, etc.

[Requiem]

Looks like the 00Z is about the same. Maybe a little warmer/colder in certain areas, but hasn't backed down on the cold. In fact, some 850 temps look even colder.

[BLI snowman]

Don't even get me started on the crapfests of 2006-07, 2003-04, 1995-96, 1985-86, etc.

 

The record lows of mid October 1949 led directly to the record warmth experienced in early March that winter.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like the 00Z is about the same. Maybe a little warmer/colder in certain areas, but hasn't backed down on the cold. In fact, some 850 temps look even colder.

Looks slightly less impressive west of the crest. This is still up in the air still could be more impressive again by the 06z or the 12z again. Either way its impressive for this early in the season.

[Requiem]

Looks slightly less impressive west of the crest. This is still up in the air still could be more impressive again by the 06z or the 12z again. Either way its impressive for this early in the season.

 

Just a smidgen. Still cold for this time, for sure!

[TT-SEA]

Yep. Thinking about 2002-03 gives me PTSD.

 

 

Its gonna be OK, Tiger.

 

Sometimes the weather is not nasty as sh*t.    Sometimes its just pleasant.    

 

On here... its accepted to complain about nice weather, but complaining about gloomy weather that stretches well beyond normal is not allowed.     

[Jesse]

Sounds like the 00z GFS really took a dump...that’s a shame.

[Deweydog]

Looks pretty chilly for late September.

[Requiem]

Sounds like the 00z GFS really took a dump...that’s a shame.

 

In the long range, yeah. Always have time to recover though

[MossMan]

Sounds like the 00z GFS really took a dump...that’s a shame.

Took a dump as in warm and dry? We are due!

[BLI snowman]

Thought we were finally going to see a good one.

 

 

Dang.

[Requiem]

Thought we were finally going to see a good one.

 

 

Dang.

 

Yeah, that was not a good long range run. Last run was good, so it could always flip back. Nothing is gospel yet.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Its gonna be OK, Tiger.

 

Sometimes the weather is not nasty as sh*t. Sometimes its just pleasant.

 

On here... its accepted to complain about nice weather, but complaining about gloomy weather that stretches well beyond normal is not allowed.

Hanging a fat worm on that hook.

[Deweydog]

Word travels fast. The “sorry for your statistical weather model loss” section at the Hallmark Store was completely picked over.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Word travels fast. The “sorry for your statistical weather model loss” section at the Hallmark Store was completely picked over.

GF got her Hallmark Christmas ornament announcement in the mail. I still haven’t even gotten all of my kids’ Halloween costumes yet.

[Deweydog]

GF got her Hallmark Christmas ornament announcement in the mail. I still haven’t even gotten all of my kids’ Halloween costumes yet.

How many kids?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So a cold snap this October = winter cancel?

 

It is not a Nino. Keep up Phil...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

How many kids?

4

[GHweatherChris]

4

D**n

[TT-SEA]

The weekend is almost totally dry on the 00Z ECMWF with a decent amount sun... and then full sun by Monday and Tuesday.

 

No low clouds over the weekend... but some high and mid level clouds at times coming in from the east.

 

Looks like low temps bottom out in the upper 30s to around 40 in Seattle and Portland on Monday and Tuesday morning. But colder in the usual spots like Olympia.

 

The trough looks a little less impressive overall at the 500mb level compared to the last couple runs.

[TT-SEA]

And a nice little bonus on this run with the next trough cutting off to the west... it shows highs around 70 again by Wednesday and still sunny. 

[Phil]

It is not a Nino. Keep up Phil...

It will eventually be, most likely, as the cold tongue gets torpedoed by the next downwelling OKW.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1176506322352652288

 

[Phil]

Then again, these seasonal climate models seem to have warm SST/temperature biases just about everywhere.

 

Been so bad lately that I really don’t use climate models for seasonal forecasts anymore. The NMME is unusable now for cold season temperature outlooks.

[The Swamp]

I’m intrigued by the excitement over a high of 60 and a low of 40 and referring to that as a “cold snap”.

[Front Ranger]

That guy is also claiming the PDO influences the climate system...

[TacomaWaWx]

Last nights gfs run was a bit better than the 0z. Looks like the morning low last night was 50 degrees.

[TacomaWaWx]

I’m intrigued by the excitement over a high of 60 and a low of 40 and referring to that as a “cold snap”.

Getting some potential record lows for September is pretty interesting from a statistical standpoint. It’s interesting seeing something like this develop very early in the “cold season”. Also the fact that this is going to bring some record early snowfalls back east is pretty intriguing imo.

[ShawniganLake]

44 here. Arctic front is on the move.

[MossMan]

I’m intrigued by the excitement over a high of 60 and a low of 40 and referring to that as a “cold snap”.

Because this could be our only cool snap of the season according to Phil.

[MossMan]

44 here. Arctic front is on the move.

Already hit here!

[TacomaWaWx]

44 here. Arctic front is on the move.

Lol. we should probably think of a better name for it since it’s not really an artic front by any means.

[TT-SEA]

Already have some sun here this morning... should be a decent day.

 

And the models have sped up the timing of the rain tomorrow which means it might be sunny by afternoon.

[Front Ranger]

Getting some potential record lows for September is pretty interesting from a statistical standpoint. It’s interesting seeing something like this develop very early in the “cold season”. Also the fact that this is going to bring some record early snowfalls back east is pretty intriguing imo.

 

Puyallupjon cares not about such things. All that matters to him is maintaining a golden tan in the summer, and building snow monsters in the winter.

[BLI snowman]

Lol. we should probably think of a better name for it since it’s not really an artic front by any means.

 

It technically will be one. Just a September version of it. Same mechanisms though.