October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[MossMan]

.02” so far today. Currently cloudy and 49. Had the heat on in my shop for the first time while I was tuning up my chainsaw. Winter is here.

[Jesse]

Sunny morning. Had a low of 43.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I think a neutral winter is pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point ie; 75% chance or greater.

 

Fine by me, since those statistically have the best chance of significant lowland snowfalls in my area.

[TacomaWaWx]

12z showing even lower heights associated with the system early next week along with cooler 850s. Nice shot of cool air for early October.

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs shows some rain day 9-10 but other than that and the system early next week it’s dry.

[ShawniganLake]

The Gem is also significantly colder early next week with 528 thickness briefly crossing into Whatcom county

[snow_wizard]

Look at you panicking lol.

 

I think we get a major cold event either way.  Any Nino region warmth that may emerge won't have any effect until January at the earliest.

[snow_wizard]

12z showing even lower heights associated with the system early next week along with cooler 850s. Nice shot of cool air for early October.

 

No doubt this run is a notch colder.  Good shot at record lows after it clears out.

[TacomaWaWx]

No doubt this run is a notch colder. Good shot at record lows after it clears out.

Tuesday-Thursday morning should have some cold lows.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

39 this morning. Up to 48 under sunny skies.

[MossMan]

51 and raining.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

54/41 here yesterday. Looks like SLE came in with a -4 departure yesterday too.

[Jesse]

I’m liking the 12z ensembles. Trough looking stout and the long range looking WET.

 

[Jesse]

No, never read that...

I actually messed up on the title. It's just "Flatland". But it sort of deals with what you were talking about. Beings in a lower dimension that simply can't conceive of the existence of higher dimensions, or at least don't have the tools to perceive them.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flatland

[jakeinthevalley]

Very dense fog this morning. Reminds me of the Octobers of my youth!!

[snow_wizard]

The WRF indicates clear skies for a good part of next week.  Quite possible we could see frost on a number of days.  It also indicate very cool max temps Tuesday and Wednesday.  Great leaf turning weather!

[TacomaWaWx]

The WRF indicates clear skies for a good part of next week. Quite possible we could see frost on a number of days. It also indicate very cool max temps Tuesday and Wednesday. Great leaf turning weather!

leaves are already turning nicely across the region already this should help though! Good chance if it clears out we see even cooler temps than we did on the morning of 10/1 in the middle of next week.

[TacomaWaWx]

Gloomy day so far, but dry here in the south sound. 55 degrees.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I’m liking the 12z ensembles. Trough looking stout and the long range looking WET.

 

431813E1-1832-4B74-930F-9BD3B10EA575.png

Definitely looks like the beginning of the fall storm train.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like the euro is stepping up the cold shot a notch as well on the latest run.

[Timmy]

Did you guys hear about cliff mass?!?!?

[MossMan]

Did you guys hear about cliff mass?!?!?

No.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Did you guys hear about cliff mass?!?!?

Huh?

[Jesse]

Did you guys hear about cliff mass?!?!?

I guess he got jaya’d pretty bad.

[TacomaWaWx]

Did you guys hear about cliff mass?!?!?

never heard of her.

[Deweydog]

Did you guys hear about cliff mass?!?!?

Got impeached?

[MossMan]

I guess he got jaya’d pretty bad.

He retired badly?

[Front Ranger]

Latest Euro looks like the coldest yet.

 

Too bad it's the Euro

[Jesse]

Latest Euro looks like the coldest yet.

Too bad it's the Euro

It’s still pretty good once it gets inside 4-5 days.

[Front Ranger]

Latest Euro looks like the coldest yet.

 

Too bad it's the Euro

Quite a bit ridgier in the mid range, though.

[Jesse]

Quite a bit ridgier in the mid range, though.

Crap model.

[Front Ranger]

It’s still pretty good once it gets inside 4-5 days.

I know.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Don’t we want to get the warmth out of the way now? I’d be concerned if this pattern continues because it’ll just flip like clockwork to warmer once we get into the prime time. It would be nice to have some warmer and wetter weather now before the hammer drops in mid/late November-mid Jan.

[Jesse]

Don’t we want to get the warmth out of the way now? I’d be concerned if this pattern continues because it’ll just flip like clockwork to warmer once we get into the prime time. It would be nice to have some warmer and wetter weather now before the hammer drops in mid/late November-mid Jan.

I’m sure if it were torching right now you would be seeing it as a bad thing too.

 

#theweathercan’twin

 

#ugh

[Jesse]

Years that have recurring cold patterns like this set up starting in late-September/early October have a VERY good track record, FWIW. I feel like that has already been discussed a lot here.

 

Historically speaking, if there's any time we would want to "get the warmth out of the way" so we can score later it would be end of October into November.

[Phil]

I think we get a major cold event either way. Any Nino region warmth that may emerge won't have any effect until January at the earliest.

The atmosphere appears to be “ahead” of the ocean right now, if anything. Note the phase 8/1 loop on the unfiltered RMM plots (tied to +IOD/low pass IPWP subsidence).

 

Again, I’m not saying this matters for winter. In fact I don’t think a weak niño hurts at all in this particular case. But denying the existence of a +ENSO lean in the system state is just silly.

[TacomaWaWx]

Has turned into a nice partly sunny day here in Tacoma and 57 degrees. Had some light drizzle earlier this morning but didn’t amount to anything.

[TacomaWaWx]

Years that have recurring cold patterns like this set up starting in late-September/early October have a VERY good track record, FWIW. I feel like that has already been discussed a lot here.

 

Historically speaking, if there's any time we would want to "get the warmth out of the way" so we can score later it would be end of October into November.

Warm up and cool down around thanksgiving?

[Jesse]

Warm up and cool down around thanksgiving?

 

Who knows. But it's hard to spin the fact that we are seeing recurrent cold shots right now as a bad sign.

[TacomaWaWx]

Who knows. But it's hard to spin the fact that we are seeing recurrent cold shots right now as a bad sign.

I agree, we have had cold weather this year that hasn’t really been seen this early in the season in a long time. Plus another similar system coming through early next week. One thing we know is there will be lots of cool downs after warm ups and vice versa.