October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

The 6z is a lot prettier for early in week two.  Dropped to 39 here.

[Blizzard777]

39* at 7:09 this morning currently 41*

 

Loving the way thing are panning out!

Seemed easy to get thunderstorms this past year

Perhaps it will be easy to get snow as well out here in the PNW!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Awesome!  I haven't really looked at the models the last few days between work and turning wrenches but I just checked Wunderground and it is showing low 30's middle of this week, and it seems like lately it has been too warm with its low temps.

 

It's increasingly looking like KBLI will score the freeze we missed out on last week, thanks to strategically-timed winds and clouds.

[Blizzard777]

Under the blanket here as well but nearby lots of sun!

[TacomaWaWx]

It's increasingly looking like KBLI will score the freeze we missed out on last week, thanks to strategically-timed winds and clouds.

It’s looking like it’ll be colder for the whole region in general than last weeks cold temps. Should dip into the upper 30s even in the top warmest location downtown Seattle.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Lack of housing is absolutely NOT one of the main contributors to homelessness.

 

Silly me.

[Omegaraptor]

The models should definitely get colder as the calendar turns to November and then December.

[TT-SEA]

The models should definitely get colder as the calendar turns to November and then December.

 

 

Interesting.   The models might do that... but is it normal for it to get colder as we move into November and December?   I need to check the averages.   

[Omegaraptor]

Interesting.   The models might do that... but is it normal for it to get colder as we move into November and December?   I need to check the averages.   

Interestingly, I think the models will start warming up starting in January and moving forwards from there. So yeah, a warm up after the cool down.

[ShawniganLake]

Interestingly, I think the models will start warming up starting in January and moving forwards from there. So yeah, a warm up after the cool down.

So another warm January. Well that’s just great

[ShawniganLake]

Record low potential next week here

 

October 9th. Record is 32 from 1919,1948

October 10th. Record is 30 from 1924

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly, I think the models will start warming up starting in January and moving forwards from there. So yeah, a warm up after the cool down.

 

 

Interesting how you are reporting what the models will do and not what the actual weather weather will do.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

So another warm January. Well that’s just great

 

I think it's a little early to call it for the coming winter, but it is strange how long it's been since we've had a major cold spell in January, which used to be widely considered the favored month for such things.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Climate update is predicting October to be below average for the PNW and the winter months to be above average. It also shows a chance of a little higher precipitation than normal for October for extreme Southern California, but I don't see how that will be happening unless we can get some tropical storm remnants.

 

[TT-SEA]

Climate update is predicting October to be below average for the PNW and the winter months to be about average. It also shows a chance of a little higher precipitation than normal for October for extreme Southern California, but I don't see how that will be happening unless we can get some tropical storm remnants.

The screen shot there shows that JAS was quite wet in the PNW. Much wetter than normal.

 

And it was significantly wetter than normal in the Seattle area in each of those 3 months... so it was spread out fairly evenly around here.

 

[MossMan]

Some nice fall color in the Laurelhurst area of Portland earlier this evening.

 

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Poor trees are dead.

[Front Ranger]

Silly me.

It's just fact. Drug addiction and mental illness are much bigger factors for homelessness than lack or cost of housing.

[Front Ranger]

The screen shot there shows that JAS was quite wet in the PNW. Much wetter than normal.

 

And it was significantly wetter than normal in the Seattle area in each of those 3 months... so it was spread out fairly evenly around here.

 

September had the bulk of the precip and by far the highest % relative to normal.

[TT-SEA]

September had the bulk of the precip and by far the highest % relative to normal.

 

 

Using SEA NWS data... 

 

July - 164%

August - 132%

September - 221%

 

September was the highest... but all 3 months were wetter than normal.    It was well spread out around here.

[TacomaWaWx]

Suns coming out, should be a nice day! 50 degrees currently.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is really dry... the majority of the precip over the next 16 days comes tomorrow afternoon into Tuesday morning.    

[TT-SEA]

Suns coming out, should be a nice day! 50 degrees currently.

 

 

Sun has been out here since dawn.  

[Front Ranger]

Using SEA NWS data...

 

July - 164%

August - 132%

September - 221%

 

September was the highest... but all 3 months were wetter than normal. It was well spread out around here.

Funny how you're back to using SEA data to make points... after you took a break during their very dry late spring/early summer.

[TT-SEA]

Funny how you're back to using SEA data to make points... after you took a break during their very dry late spring/early summer.

Good Lord.

 

Do you post every single stat or mainly those you find interesting?

 

I actually made lots of posts about the record dry March here and the dry weather in May. And of course April was actually wetter than normal in between.

[Front Ranger]

Either way, even looking only at SEA, those stats support what I said. September was the standout month. Which is why the JAS map looks radically different than the JJA map.

[TT-SEA]

Either way, even looking only at SEA, those stats support what I said. September was the standout month. Which is why the JAS map looks radically different than the JJA map.

Always have to qualify. Always.

 

The JAS map is accurate. I did not create it. I copied it from that presentation that was posted.

 

And I also mentioned that all 3 of those months were wetter than normal in the Seattle area. I said it was well spread out around here. And it was.

[Deweydog]

Euro!!!

[Deweydog]

I’ve never flown out of KSEA. Seems weird.

[TT-SEA]

I’ve never flown out of KSEA. Seems weird.

That is strange. How about OLM?

[Deweydog]

That is strange. How about OLM?

Three times a week just for forum street cred’s sake.

[GHweatherChris]

That is strange. How about OLM?

KHQM just opened back up, maybe another Tom Cruise visit is in order.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Got down to 38 this morning. Not earth shattering by any means, but a clear switch from the mild lows of September. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows highs in the low to mid 50s on Wednesday in the Seattle area... then mid to upper 50s on Thursday... the mid 60s for Friday and Saturday.

 

Pretty much sunny for 4 straight days... that will be nice.

[Front Ranger]

Always have to qualify. Always.

 

The JAS map is accurate. I did not create it. I copied it from that presentation that was posted.

 

And I also mentioned that all 3 of those months were wetter than normal in the Seattle area. I said it was well spread out around here. And it was.

And my additional points were valid. You're wasting a lot of words.

[TacomaWaWx]

12Z ECMWF shows highs in the low to mid 50s on Wednesday in the Seattle area... then mid to upper 50s on Thursday... the mid 60s for Friday and Saturday.

Pretty much sunny for 4 straight days... that will be nice.

Some nice October sunshine! Should be some clear cool nights as well. Going to be a good weekend to get outside if it verifies.

[TT-SEA]

And my additional points were valid. You're wasting a lot of words.

 

This is the definition of "flatironing".    Qualification for the sake of qualification.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Hoping precip overperforms with this week's cold trough. Looks pretty dry. Does look like the pacific jet gets energized with a parade of storms next week though.

[TT-SEA]

Some nice October sunshine! Should be some clear cool nights as well. Going to be a good weekend to get outside if it verifies.

 

 

And a weak band of rain moving in on Saturday night falls apart before it moves inland on this run... so possibly a nice Sunday and Monday as well.

[TT-SEA]

Hoping precip overperforms with this week's cold trough. Looks pretty dry. Does look like the pacific jet gets energized with a parade of storms next week though.

 

Not on the 12Z GFS.    Its pretty much dry all of next week as well.  

[kokaneekidz]

I have a feeling Stevens Pass will open by November 5th this year. Think SNOW