October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What has been one of the bigger surprises since I moved up to 1600' is how  generally lame November has been over the last 8 years. We had a pretty decent snow in 2011, but since then the best we've done are some minor snow falls in 2014 and 15. Generally it is probably the closest cold season month we have to the climate of the valley floor. At least in that near decade long span. Historically it has definitely produced, but we are definitely more likely to see significant snow up here in March compared to November. 

[Jesse]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really pretty day out.

 

It is very nce. Gorgeous view of yellow cottonwoods and puffy clouds floating in a blue sky here outside the weather window. Had 5 deer walking the banks of the river about 20' away this morning. 

[Jesse]

EPS looks similar to the operational for the weekend and beyond. Maybe a little further west than the op Monday/Tuesday.

[Jesse]

[TacomaWaWx]

Gloomy and drizzly still in Tacoma, 53 degrees outside. 0.11” of rain. Has been drizzling pretty much the whole day.

[Front Ranger]

Most of the group had given up on snow by the end of January.

 

This is true. Several posters were adamant that the combination of Nino and hardly any lowland snowfall by that point made it basically impossible for a good February.

 

But there were a few of us pointing out that 1) it was a very weak Nino, and 2) wild cards like low solar and SSWs that don't apply to most years.

[Front Ranger]

Those are likely to go negative in a hurry given the upcoming state of the NPAC jet. One of the more anomalous suppressed states we’ve seen lately.

 

If there is no rain for the next couple weeks, then they will be going negative.

 

But then a wet second half of November could totally catch things up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is true. Several posters were adamant that the combination of Nino and hardly any lowland snowfall by that point made it basically impossible for a good February.

 

But there were a few of us pointing out that 1) it was a very weak Nino, and 2) wild cards like low solar and SSWs that don't apply to most years.

 

I admit. I gave up on the winter by mid-January. 

[Front Ranger]

What has been one of the bigger surprises since I moved up to 1600' is how  generally lame November has been over the last 8 years. We had a pretty decent snow in 2011, but since then the best we've done are some minor snow falls in 2014 and 15. Generally it is probably the closest cold season month we have to the climate of the valley floor. At least in that near decade long span. Historically it has definitely produced, but we are definitely more likely to see significant snow up here in March compared to November. 

 

I wonder how 2010 and 2006 were up there?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wonder how 2010 and 2006 were up there?

 

Pretty good. I was living in Silverton in November 2010, and drove up here a couple of times during that period. I would say the depth from what I can remember around the area I live was about 6", the park recorded a 26/18 and 31/16 day .

 

November 2010 was better for snow. The park recorded 10.5" the 28-30th, and had a 32/28 day on the 27th, when I would imagine snow fell. Just given what happened with that event and that my location typically does a bit better for snow than the park I would conservatively estimate 12-18" fell 11/27-30/06. 

[Deweydog]

This is true. Several posters were adamant that the combination of Nino and hardly any lowland snowfall by that point made it basically impossible for a good February.

 

But there were a few of us pointing out that 1) it was a very weak Nino, and 2) wild cards like low solar and SSWs that don't apply to most years.

It’s not how you start...

[Jesse]

18z looks a little west of the 12Z GFS with the initial clipper.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is a notch west

[MossMan]

I admit. I gave up on the winter by mid-January.

Most of us did. January was such a dud (other than a day where I was in shorts and a t-shirt soaking up the warm sun, that was enjoyable) and we were teased slightly in the modeling world for the late January timeframe that kept getting pushed back I figured we were just in for a dud. Then poof, just like that I had 41 straight days with snow on the ground and around 3 feet of total snowfall.

[umadbro]

This is true. Several posters were adamant that the combination of Nino and hardly any lowland snowfall by that point made it basically impossible for a good February.

 

But there were a few of us pointing out that 1) it was a very weak Nino, and 2) wild cards like low solar and SSWs that don't apply to most years.

I gave up in January. Good thing I did because I didn't see any snow that was more than a sloppy quarter inch.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Nice... definitely welcome.

 

Gorgeous!

[Jesse]

18z ensembles are the worst yet. Any hint of that second shot of cold is pretty much gone. Just a small dip below average with the initial short wave.

[Guest CulverJosh]

18z ensembles are the worst yet. Any hint of that second shot of cold is pretty much gone. Just a small dip below average with the initial short wave.

At what hour though?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Clipper Forks!

 

Maybe next time. Will be nice to dry out a bit, water over roadways all over up here and just drove over the Stilly on my way to Marysville and there is a large log jam building up at the bridge on I5 and water is just over the banks there. And here is the current view of Silvana. Ate at Willow and Jim’s last weekend! Yum!

Yikes! Is that area prone to flooding? Hopefully they can reopen soon. This dry stretch of weather couldn't have come at a better time.

[Jesse]

On the bright side, we could do a whole lot worse than some cool air clipping us to the east and ridging centered to our west the last week of October. Will probably still be lots of highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s starting this weekend, through Halloween.

 

Might even be enough for some areas to still score a top five or ten cool October depending on how surface details work out. I could see the east wind being a nuisance for PDX on some nights.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EUG had a +7F departure yesterday and is now at -3.2F for the month.  Another + departure today so now a week straight of + departures.  Also not a ton of rain overnight so we will end up below normal for rainfall, and with the coming warm period, likely above normal temps for the month if the latest ensembles are to be believed.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

New weekly long-range pattern update from Brett Anderson. After this dry stretch, he's thinking a return to some wet weather here in the PNW for early November.

 

"Excellent consensus for the overall weather pattern across much of North America for the week of Oct. 28 to Nov. 3. There looks to be a fairly amplified jet stream pattern with a ridge near the West Coast and a trough over Ontario, which will send chilly air down through the eastern Prairies. As usual, areas that are east of the mean trough can expect some wet weather.

 

There is much more uncertainty with the pattern after the 5th with some significant differences in the modeling, which is not surprising due to a lack of strong atmospheric signals."

 

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-long-range-weather-pattern-update-5/605579

[Jesse]

EUG had a +7F departure yesterday and is now at -3.2F for the month.  Another + departure today so now a week straight of + departures.  Also not a ton of rain overnight so we will end up below normal for rainfall, and with the coming warm period, likely above normal temps for the month if the latest ensembles are to be believed.

 

EUG will probably see multiple near-freezing lows the last week of October. More than likely they will add to their negative departures between now and the end of the month if anything, unless models change drastically. What the ensembles are advertising is not a warm pattern at the surface at this point of the year. It just isn't as ridiculously cold as some models were hinting at a few days ago.

[MossMan]

New weekly long-range pattern update from Brett Anderson. After this dry stretch, he's thinking a return to some wet weather here in the PNW for early November.

 

"Excellent consensus for the overall weather pattern across much of North America for the week of Oct. 28 to Nov. 3. There looks to be a fairly amplified jet stream pattern with a ridge near the West Coast and a trough over Ontario, which will send chilly air down through the eastern Prairies. As usual, areas that are east of the mean trough can expect some wet weather.

 

There is much more uncertainty with the pattern after the 5th with some significant differences in the modeling, which is not surprising due to a lack of strong atmospheric signals."

 

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-long-range-weather-pattern-update-5/605579

“Comfortable” is awfully close to Chris’s 11/20 date...

[Deweydog]

Nice evening.

 

Thanksgiving.

 

Low solar.

[Phil]

[High Desert Mat?]

At what hour though?

Does it matter? It’s October.

[TacomaWaWx]

0.11” of rain today, 4.04” of rain for October.

[GHweatherChris]

“Comfortable” is awfully close to Chris’s 11/20 date...

He is a Canadian forecaster, doesn't matter.

[MossMan]

11/24.

[GHweatherChris]

11/24.

That is a Sunday, doesn't work for me.

[umadbro]

11/22 and a half

[MossMan]

That is a Sunday, doesn't work for me.

Golfing?

[MossMan]

11/22 and a half

Flash freeze for the evening commute!

[GHweatherChris]

Golfing?

Seahawks silly, we don't need no weather distractions!

[The Swamp]

if it doesn't clip us is it really a clipper?

[van city]

We lost Jim.

[The Swamp]

We lost Jim.

yeah, last night he was desperately clinging to the 18Z drunk uncle.

 

feel bad for the guy. whips himself into a frenzy over something he can't control, but would like too.