Tom Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Here we go! Dust off those snow shovels and gas up 'em snow blowers if you live in the Upper MW as Ol' Man Winter is paying an early visit this year. Folks, we may be seeing a spectacular open to this new LRC pattern as a potentially explosive storm may be coming together for parts of the Dakotas/MN region. For instance, today's 12z GFS bombs out this system into the 970's across SW Ontario/N MN and dumps 1-2 Feet of snow. Where this storm tracks is TBD but the signal is there that we are on the verge of tracking a potential October....bomb??? Winds on the GFS are forecast to gust 40-50 mph across the MN/ND producing Blizzard conditions. It's crazy to see this region start off right where they left off last Spring! The atmosphere is getting primed up and the excitement of storm tracking is about to begin. Let's discuss... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Here we go! Dust off those snow shovels and gas up 'em snow blowers if you live in the Upper MW as Ol' Man Winter is paying an early visit this year. Folks, we may be seeing a spectacular open to this new LRC pattern as a potentially explosive storm may be coming together for parts of the Dakotas/MN region. For instance, today's 12z GFS bombs out this system into the 970's across SW Ontario/N MN and dumps 1-2 Feet of snow. Where this storm tracks is TBD but the signal is there that we are on the verge of tracking a potential October....bomb??? Winds on the GFS are forecast to gust 40-50 mph across the MN/ND producing Blizzard conditions. It's crazy to see this region start off right where they left off last Spring! The atmosphere is getting primed up and the excitement of storm tracking is about to begin. Let's discuss... Just got back from church and hadn’t been looking at the models. GFS wants to put accumulating snow down to Central Nebraska. Might be a little generous, but I think we’ll see some flakes Thursday into Friday. Fun to do some tracking in early October. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Let's not forget the 2nd season for Severe Wx and our members down south may be dodging some big time storms if this holds together. Looks like OKWx may be in a good spot to see some late season boomers and possibly up near the KC area. Lot's of impacts from this storm system including a large and expansive wind shield. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Let's not forget the 2nd season for Severe Wx and our members down south may be dodging some big time storms if this holds together. Looks like OKWx may be in a good spot to see some late season boomers and possibly up near the KC area. Lot's of impacts from this storm system including a large and expansive wind shield.As the thunder rolls over me today, I couldn't have written it out any better. This is a great event for late November, let alone October. It's hard to get me awe-stricken to the point of amazement and speechlessness, but run after run, I find it hard to express. Wow, is an understatement for what is coming. This will, no doubt, be one we remember for a very long time. Closest I can get to what is coming in my mind today is an undocumented 2 hours of flurries this far south in mid-October 2001. We dipped to 31 in the mid-afternoon that day and by 3:40pm it was snowing lightly as I was driving home from school. Todays 12z GFS is the most impressive run to date and the most impressive I have probably witnessed in 14 years of model watching. 28° temps next weekend are going to be an absolute stunner. I have to go back in nearly a generation to find something close. So amazing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Remember this is the new GFS which grossly exaggerated snowfall amounts last year 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 12z GEFS show a shift in track and has the SLP sit and spin right over the U.P and what looks like a snow shield from NE up into SD/MN. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Remember this is the new GFS which grossly exaggerated snowfall amounts last yearYeah I was about to say this as well. I do think they should have given it another year to iron out the issues as the FV3 was a horrible model last year. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 We’ll see rain tonight and 73* tomorrow and 78* Tuesday. Fri and Sat we’re actually forecast for the 60’s. Everyone here is so ready to cool off. This summer is weeks longer than it should have been. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinnyLakes Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 So far, Euro 12z (still early) is showing gradual pull to north and west each run. We'll see what happens later in the run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinnyLakes Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 18z shows 30" in the RRV of total snowfall as of Sunday morning (doubtful it will verify), with net of 17" snow depth in Fargo. We'll see...Euro had it about 4-6" snow depth, with a bit more north into Grand Forks (6-8" in depth). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 This early season storm is going to define how legit this GFS upgrade really is. Last winter it didn’t do so well. It continues to be well East of the Euro and GEM. Crazy snow totals coming in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinnyLakes Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 This early season storm is going to define how legit this GFS upgrade really is. Last winter it didn’t do so well. It continues to be well East of the Euro and GEM. Crazy snow totals coming in.Euro and GEM seem more reasonable, but we'll see...GFS had issues overdoing snow and it always tends to be too progressive with movement of winter storms also (less so than it used be, but still somewhat IIRC), so initial thought is Euro is probably closer to the truth. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 Even Ryan Maue is jumping on the bandwagon. Lol. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 Not saying were going to get a ton here but last October we did get a few inches around the same exact time last year so it is definitely possible! 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 Let's not forget the 2nd season for Severe Wx and our members down south may be dodging some big time storms if this holds together. Looks like OKWx may be in a good spot to see some late season boomers and possibly up near the KC area. Lot's of impacts from this storm system including a large and expansive wind shield. Should feel like autumn with that in mind, eh? Not saying were going to get a ton here but last October we did get a few inches around the same exact time last year so it is definitely possible! I like your "winter jackpot" zone btw.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 00z EPS snow mean...courtesy BAMWx. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 Some of these snow amounts are insane. WOW! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 Some of these snow amounts are insane. WOW! At least by early Oct standards. I'm guessing these early storms were a more common occurrence during the infamous Plains era of the 1880's, which shows the historical significance. 1870's/80's were brutal cold times, not unlike the 1970's/80's a century later. Now, if we get into late Nov and you're are seeing a map like that over Macomb? that WILL BE insane stuff right there! (aka 1974 = 21" in Sterling Hghts & 19.3" DTW) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 At least by early Oct standards. I'm guessing these early storms were a more common occurrence during the infamous Plains era of the 1880's, which shows the historical significance. 1870's/80's were brutal cold times, not unlike the 1970's/80's a century later. Now, if we get into late Nov and you're are seeing a map like that over Macomb? that WILL BE insane stuff right there! (aka 1974 = 21" in Sterling Hghts & 19.1" DTW) Now, that's what I call being inundated by a huge snowstorm. We came close to those numbers here in Macomb back in 2014, when just a little ova 16" fell imby. Seems like a century ago, Winters were a lot colder and snowier. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 Now, that's what I call being inundated by a huge snowstorm. We came close to those numbers here in Macomb back in 2014, when just a little ova 16" fell imby. Seems like a century ago, Winters were a lot colder and snowier. Not to discount 16" cuz that IS truly a Big Dog right there, but keep in mind that 19-20" storm was several magnitudes worse. Storm impacts/effects are on an exponential curve kinda like the earth quake scale. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 12z GFS pretty much sticking to its guns from previous runs. Maybe a tick west with the heaviest snow. Gotta love it when the first storm of the season is GFS upgrade vs the world. Snow now officially in the forecast for Friday night. High on Saturday now down to 37. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 Not to discount 16" cuz that IS truly a Big Dog right there, but keep in mind that 19-20" storm was several magnitudes worse. Storm impacts/effects are on an exponential curve kinda like the earth quake scale. Indeed, that is truly an amazing snowfall. No question about it. Anything ova a ft in my books is a remarkable snowevent. Hopefully, we get a few of those this upcoming Winter. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 While the snowfall amounts and locations are still a mystery, one thing for sure is that this storm will usher in the cold air and keep it in place. A few models showing 2m temps not getting out of the mid 30s for at least a week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 While the snowfall amounts and locations are still a mystery, one thing for sure is that this storm will usher in the cold air and keep it in place. A few models showing 2m temps not getting out of the mid 30s for at least a week. And I think that's the BIG story (for our sub & CONUS) from this whole event. We all know the Plains/Dakotas get their wild massive blizzards at the ends of our typical winter months. But this pattern reversal from HOT to lasting COLD is a huge deal for anywhere it can reach. 1911-12 is not spoken of too much, but that one featured some wicked clashes and crashes like the November 11th "storm of the 11's". "This is the only day in many midwest cities' weather bureau jurisdictions where the record highs and lows were broken for the same day." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blue_Norther_of_November_11,_1911 It went on to be one of the coldest winters in the history of our country. I'm not saying that's where we're headed, just saying that these early season blasts are similar and reminded me of it. 5 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 ^ great stuff Jaster! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 I don't know how to zoom in to a region on this website, I can only figure out how to zoom directly in on a state. When I zoom in on ND it's showing 4.4" of qpf in the heaviest areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 Just northwest of Jamestown, ND with a solid first snowstorm of 4’ on the 12z Euro. That’d be a hell of a way to kick off winter. And how much would it suck to be in Fargo and miss that. Yikes. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 I don't know how to zoom in to a region on this website, I can only figure out how to zoom directly in on a state. When I zoom in on ND it's showing 4.4" of qpf in the heaviest areas. Click on "change map selection" and choose "free zoom". 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 12z GEFS members pulled northwest. Crummy upgrade is always playing catch up with the big boys. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 Click on "change map selection" and choose "free zoom".Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 Just northwest of Jamestown, ND with a solid first snowstorm of 4’ on the 12z Euro. That’d be a hell of a way to kick off winter. And how much would it suck to be in Fargo and miss that. Yikes. I think I speak for all in the Fargo, Red River Valley, Eastern ND and NW MN: The ground and soil is already saturated and river levels are already at flood advisory stages, any precipitation is not needed in any form. I think I heard on CBC radio this morning that the Red River in Winnipeg is already at record height for October. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 I think I speak for all in the Fargo, Red River Valley, Eastern ND and NW MN: The ground and soil is already saturated and river levels are already at flood advisory stages, any precipitation is not needed in any form. I think I heard on CBC radio this morning that the Red River in Winnipeg is already at record height for October. Yeah, I totally get what you’re saying about the flood situation. No one wants to deal with that. I’m just talking from the potential of seeing a 4-foot snowfall. Doesn’t happen ever often unless you live at a high altitude. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 Can't imagine having 4in liquid equivalent of snow this time of year... That just screams disaster of concrete mixer style snow. Cool to see the first system to track though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 Remember though 10:1 snow ratios are probably not the most accurate for early season snowfalls. More likely 5:1 super wet snow that melts from the ground up. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 Something I noticed as we're getting into model watching season is that instantweathermaps.com is WAY faster at loading the GFS than Pivotal. At this moment on the 18z Pivotal is at hour 90 while IWXM is at 135, something to keep in mind for those that are impatient like I am. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 Nice to see the GFS continue to tick west, more in line with the other globals. Doesn’t bode well for snow accumulation here but that’s OK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 ^ great stuff Jaster! Thx. And to go along with that theme.. Temperatures can plunge by 30-60 degrees Fahrenheit in the span of 12-24 hours as the cold air swiftly replaces preceding mild conditions. Billings, Montana, is expected to have a high near 70 on Tuesday, before temperatures plummet into the 20s with an AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperature in the teens as snow falls at night. Tom's use of the word historic looks more and more accurate. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 This thing reminds me of the 2010 octobomb in ways. That low pressure bottomed out about 60 miles to my se. The dry slot was massive and it was eerily calm like I was in the eye of a hurricane as it passed by.I wonder if this storm will play out similarly? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Arbitrary stat for October, highlight here is the year, 1911. From a 10/1 news article out of Alabama. "Huntsville had its hottest October temperature ever when the mercury hit 97 degrees. That broke a previous record set on Oct. 8, 1911." There is precedent for the dynamics to create what is coming. Wild times ahead is all I can say. Going to copy/paste this to the storm thread as well, since someone mentioned 1911 in there. The SE may break a temp record or 2 ahead of this thing as well this week with all the lift ahead. This is pretty radical. Even knowing what could happen if it underperformed is still very radical indeed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinnyLakes Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 0z GFS just a tad west. Moving towards Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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