10/29-10/31 Halloween Winter Storm

[jaster220]

Don't really need it shifted, as much as we need it to be stronger. 

 

CPC literally was cutting Tom's place in two with their Friday map (no Sat/Sun issued btw)

 

[East Dubzz]

Not that it's really going to matter all that much in the end, but it'll be interesting to see how quick the rain changes to snow tonight. Extremely short lived snow event, but I may have to wake up during the night to see the snowfall, because I wouldn't be surprised to see some very nice rates for a brief period.

[CentralNebWeather]

Moderate snow falling with nice big flakes.  Nice little surprise as I thought it would dry up.  Even some now accumulating on the grass.  

[jaster220]

Ugh... This is turning into a Chicago event. Can't believe the best snow looks to be in southeast Iowa. 

 

The "everyone but Chicago.." thread might need dusting off...just sayin

[jaster220]

Looks more like a Dec map..

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Maddening part is the NWS Hastings Radar is being upgraded and won't be functioning until Nov. 11th.  Having to use different radars that I don't like as much.  Also, the Viaero Camera Network for Holdrege is not working as of now or I would share the link with you of the snow.  

[jaster220]

Anyone with a 28/06z Euro snowfall map??

[Clinton]

Anyone with a 28/06z Euro snowfall map??

[james1976]

Winter Weather Advisories being hoisted for tonight. Currently NE IA into WI

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

That's more like it!  The Euro is a little bit colder at 850 compared to the GFS around here which is showing more snow.  I'll take this run any day of the week in October.  Surely, this would be a historic snowstorm and stat for the KC region to have back-to-back October snowfalls of greater than 1".  What I like seeing is the storm track which is a classic KC/Chicago/Detroit snow storm if this would be Winter.  Perfection.

 

Wow, yeah, took another peek and you summed it up well my friend "perfection". Shoulda known when the majority of posters on here are down and negative, that's a good sign for our by's 

[jaster220]

 

Thx but do you have it out further, to say h120? Wanted to compare with the 0z you posted this morning for over this way. 

[Hawkeye]

DVN discussion

 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2019

1. The GFS indicates a signiciant winter storm for our local area
Tue-Thurs. All other deterministic guidance does not.

OK, we ought to add one more bullet there, but the forecast is
already cold, with clouds, and a rather unsettled and messy forecast
in hand. The front to our south will continue to see rain and snow
north of it through Thursday. Whether a synoptic storm rides up
along this or not is the main question, with the GFS showing a long
duration dendritic snow event, and the GEM a positively tilted
sheared out trof, with little or no forecast. The 12Z ECMWF remains
somewhat inbetween these to extremes, with a long duration light
snow event. There is pleny of cold air aloft for now, and though the
dendritic nature cannot yet be confident, aloft, most all
precipation will be snow. Thus boundary layer is more marginal, with
saturated air, possibly going back and forth between wet snow and
rain. Thus, I would not place much faith into any snow lasting from
one 12 hour period to the next. If, big if, we get snow, then a
break followed by more snow, we may full well melt off the prior
snow and start over. Models are unlikely to ever resolve that issue,
but that's how I see this taking place. 

[Clinton]

Thx but do you have it out further, to say h120? Wanted to compare with the 0z you posted this morning for over this way. 

No I can only go out to hr 90 on the 6 and 18z runs.  

[jaster220]

Don't really need it shifted, as much as we need it to be stronger. 

 

CPC literally was cutting Tom's place in two with their Friday map (no Sat/Sun issued btw)

 

20191025 CPC hazards_d3_7.png

 

So I guess they were in the process of updating the "dynamic" map which I snap-grabbed earlier. Here's the published "static" vs. Tom's gotta watch this one to the end now, lol

 

[jaster220]

No I can only go out to hr 90 on the 6 and 18z runs.  

 

Ahh, ok. Guess I have to remain in suspense a little while longer for mby trends. Thx

[CentralNebWeather]

Huge flakes that are accumulating on roofs and grass.  Streets and sidewalks just wet.  32 degrees currently.  Looks like winter for sure.  Radar shows nothing is happening but I promise it is really coming down.

[badgerwx]

First WWA of the season for us here in SW Wisconsin. Let the flakes fly!

[Niko]

Some more surprises will be likely w this system.

[Niko]

No I can only go out to hr 90 on the 6 and 18z runs.  

Now, I am curious

[jaster220]

KBUF buying into the stronger solutions over this way..

 

 

High Wind Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
152 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019

NYZ001>003-007-010>012-019-085-290200-
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.A.0004.191101T0000Z-191102T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Jefferson-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester,
Watertown, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Orchard Park,
and Springville
152 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
possible.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Jefferson, Erie, Genesee,
Wyoming, and Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

[East Dubzz]

I do like how long it appears the snowfall will last. 

[jaster220]

Now, I am curious

 

Actually makes it more fun and exciting having to wait..  (I'm a huge fan of last-minute surprises)

[Tom]

Both NAM's are suggesting SN to begin falling tomorrow night across N IL...this wasn't shown before in previous runs...

 

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

Both NAM's are suggesting SN to begin falling tomorrow night across N IL...this wasn't shown before in previous runs...

 

 

 

 

 

 

I guess when it's "your year" it's your year and everything comes up golden!  Nice developments.

 

Meanwhile, APX says "stay tuned Mitt peeps" 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Snowing in Central Nebraska.

[Tom]

I guess when it's "your year" it's your year and everything comes up golden!  Nice developments.

 

Meanwhile, APX says "stay tuned Mitt peeps" 

 

20191028 pm APX Storm Graphic.png

Let's see bud...so far, I like how this pattern is evolving and I got this feeling our region will make up for the last few years of disappointment.

[Tom]

Snowing in Central Nebraska.805627DF-145D-4922-9CF1-771AE970345D.jpeg

Let it snow!

[jaster220]

Let's see bud...so far, I like how this pattern is evolving and I got this feeling our region will make up for the last few years of disappointment.

 

"Copy that"

 

In a purely winter form, this system reminds me of a cross-up between Jan '79 and Dec '00 the way the swath of snow is unfolding and the long duration fronto-genisis banding, followed by the wrapping low bringing the winds at the end. I pretty sure this would be a classic BD if dressed up in winter temps. 

[Stacsh]

Looks like a cold rain for Southern Michigan.  Hope the pattern repeats itself later this fall or winter.  

[Niko]

Actually makes it more fun and exciting having to wait..  (I'm a huge fan of last-minute surprises)

 

[Tom]

"Copy that"

 

In a purely winter form, this system reminds me of a cross-up between Jan '79 and Dec '00 the way the swath of snow is unfolding and the long duration fronto-genisis banding, followed by the wrapping low bringing the winds at the end. I pretty sure this would be a classic BD if dressed up in winter temps. 

I agree with the bolded...in future cycles, this pattern could easily produce those results given how these troughs dive S out of B.C into the inter-mountain west along with a slight SER.  The clash between the air masses in future cycles are going to be eye candy.  Frontal boundaries have been common so far this month.  Keep that Bermuda High just off shore and we are in business.

[Stormhunter87]

Wanted to look at 18z Nam both tropical tidbits and pivotal having issues :/

[Niko]

Stormhunter87- Hows the bet going?

[GDR]

18 nam looks like the euro

[Stormhunter87]

Stormhunter87- Hows the bet going?

Going to lose both lol. Breakfast for the wife and my dad gets to gloat.

[Niko]

Man, the Euro has an excellent track for DTW, had it been later down the road, woulda been a superb snowstorm here. Patience is key ladies n gentlemen.

[Niko]

Going to lose both lol. Breakfast for the wife and my dad gets to gloat.

Gotta get some revenge now. Set up another bet, but make sure you win this time.   

[Niko]

Tom- are you included in this hvy snow circle?

 

[snowstorm83]

First flakes in Lincoln of the 2019-20 season! 

[Tom]

Tom- are you included in this hvy snow circle?

 

Yes, but accumulations won't be as much as those farther west of me.  Warm lake is not a friend during October snows.