10/29-10/31 Halloween Winter Storm

[Grizzcoat]

shocking - DMX gives the GFS the boot...

 

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday Night through Monday/
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019

/Wednesday Night through Thursday Night/...

Confidence: Medium to High

Overall confidence has increased, but there is still a large spread
between the evolution of the GFS and the Euro with the GFS still
deepening the system faster and closer to Iowa than the Euro.
Current ensemble guidance still favors the slower, less develop Euro
solution and will be leaning again in that direction concerning qpf
production and snowfall amounts. Incidentally, the NAM and GEM are
also both supporting a slightly weaker and less amplified low until
the system gets east of the Mississippi River and enters the Great
Lakes.

By 00z Thursday, both models begin to develop a deformation axis on
the back side of the H850 low near the location of collocated H500
mechanical lift. A solid area of snow will develop over northwest
Missouri by 00z and lift northeast into southern Iowa from 00 to
06z. This should be the peak production time for snow over the south
with a six hour period of 1 to between 2 to 3 inches southeast of a
line from Creston to about Marshalltown. The heavier totals will
line up southeast of Lamoni to near Ottumwa with Bloomfield and
border counties likely to see the highest amounts

The GFS remainsmuch stronger than the Euro with regard to snowfall production in
this event. At this time, nothing justifies leaning toward that
solution with as much snow is as forecast

[dubuque473]

I believe I read 3” official here. I know I have that on my deck.

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GFS starting the caving process... That shiny new upgrade from the old GFS is even worse. Imagine that. It's only good? to about 36 hours.

[Tom]

Congrats on the Snow everyone!  Nice to hear the word overperformed from your 1st official snow event.  Things are trending better for Chicagoland in the snow dept for the Halloween system.  Let's see how today's suite of runs turns out.

[Grizzcoat]

1.2" officially at the DSM airport. 3 times the monthly average and a daily record. The ground is white everywhere and reports of slick bridges and overpasses as temps have dropped as low as 18F on the NW side of DSM

[Tom]

Seeing some 3-4" reports over into S/C Wisco...not to shabby for your 1st snowfall of the season!

[dubuque473]

DVN has me for 4” by Thursday

[Clinton]

Just got my first WWA of the year in Oct!

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
411 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019

...Snow and Freezing Drizzle Expected Tonight through Thursday...

.Snow and freezing drizzle will begin tonight over central
Missouri into eastern Kansas and persist through the morning
timeframe. The freezing drizzle threat will diminish Wednesday
afternoon as temperatures warm above freezing, but snowfall will
begin to spread to northwest Missouri by the late afternoon as
temperatures begin to fall again. Overnight the threat of freezing
drizzle and snow will return for most of the area with the
freezing drizzle staying mostly over the KC Metro and central
Missouri through the morning timeframe. The heaviest snowfall will
occur overnight over northern Missouri, where 2 to 3 inches will
be possible by Thursday afternoon.

KSZ025-057-060-103>105-MOZ020>025-028>033-037>040-043-044-292100-
/O.NEW.KEAX.WW.Y.0016.191030T0300Z-191031T0900Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-
Ray-Carroll-Chariton-Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-
Cass-Johnson MO-
Including the cities of Atchison, Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg,
Pleasanton, La Cygne, Mound City, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth,
Lansing, Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe,
Shawnee, Lenexa, St. Joseph Airport, St. Joseph, Cameron,
Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo, Breckenridge,
Chillicothe, Brookfield, Marceline, Macon, La Plata, Parkville,
Platte City, Riverside, Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone,
Liberty, Excelsior Springs, Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton,
Salisbury, Brunswick, Keytesville, Moberly, Kansas City,
Independence, Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington, Concordia,
Marshall, Fayette, Glasgow, New Franklin, Belton, Raymore,
Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill, and Warrensburg
411 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM CDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
of up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth
of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
central, north central, northwest and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The bulk of the freezing drizzle is
expected overnight and into the morning Wednesday and Thursday
during rush hour, potentially causing issues for the commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

 

 

[james1976]

Wow you guys did well over there! I ended with 0.9" on the patio table. Very little on the roads but the grass is covered!

[East Dubzz]

3” is the report from Dubuque, and I can’t disagree.

[Stormhunter87]

Wow kinda surprised they gave us a wwa.

[Tom]

LOT suggesting 1-4" of snow across N IL later tonight into tomorrow from the wave that develops out ahead of the main system....

 

 

 

[Stormhunter87]

Both Nam and 3k Nam are being generous here. Placing a nice band that sits for a few hours before dry air chokes everything out.

[Clinton]

6z Euro becoming more bullish on amounts!  Tom, Jaster, and Niko 

[Tom]

6z Euro becoming more bullish on amounts!  Tom, Jaster, and Niko 

Thanks Clinton!  Gas up them snow blowers!

[GDR]

I’d take the gfs and throw it because it’s all by itself

[Minny_Weather]

14 accidents between 11pm and 1am in Lincoln last night. Bridges were a disaster apparently.

[BMT]

bridges and overpasses were a sheet of ice this morning for the commute here in CR too.  

[Hawkeye]

The snow may have overperformed a bit, but the models were not wrong about qpf.  The general consensus was about 0.20" precip, and my 2.5" of snow melted down to 0.18" liquid.  It simply piled up better than expected.

[Iowawx]

I measured 3.0 inches of snow this morning. It’s currently 23 degrees with freezing fog in Cedar Rapids.

[Madtown]

Officially 4in here!

[Minny_Weather]

Even in higher elevation Wyoming a wind chill warning in October is bizarre. This is the statistical equivalent of an excessive heat warning in April.

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Riverton WY
545 AM MDT Tue Oct 29 2019

...An Arctic front will bring snow and frigid temperatures to
Wyoming...

.An arctic front will bring another round of snow, along with
bitter cold temperatures, to areas of western and central
Wyoming. Areas west of the Divide will be more impacted by snow
with this storm. Snow will begin to end from north to south, with
light snow continuing over central portions and west of the
Divide Tuesday afternoon.

WYZ030-291945-
/O.NEW.KRIW.WC.W.0002.191030T0000Z-191030T1200Z/
/O.CON.KRIW.WS.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191030T0000Z/
East Sweetwater County-
Including the city of Wamsutter
545 AM MDT Tue Oct 29 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
MDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow. Additional
snow accumulations of up to two inches. Winds gusting as high
as 55 mph. For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind
chills expected. Wind chills as low as 35 below zero.

* WHERE...East Sweetwater County.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 6 PM MDT this
evening. For the Wind Chill Warning, from 6 PM this evening to
6 AM MDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing
snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty
winds could bring down tree branches. The dangerously cold
wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little
as 10 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Air temperatures will only rise to around 5
degrees, before dropping to 10 to 15 degrees below zero tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

[Hawkeye]

12z ICON is no change... generally weak... a bit of light snow here Wednesday night while northern Illinois gets a decent burst.  

[GDR]

12z nam light snow for far se ia look for big changes on gfs

[shakjen]

"The Old Farmer's Almanac Predicts 'No Fewer' Than 7 Big Snowstorms This Winter"

 

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/old-farmers-almanac-predicts-no-134100864.html

[Iowawx]

DMX snowfall map 

 

 

[snowman1]

Thanks Clinton!  Gas up them snow blowers!

 

 

Hurrying home today after work to prep mine. Usually put it off until Mid-November. We're sitting in a decent spot here in the Illinois Valley on both GFS and Euro, although Euro looks like we're threading the needle.

[Clinton]

Big bump on the SREF mean from previous run.

 

[Niko]

Looks like a change to snowshowers for my area Friday morning as cold air wraps into SEMI. (Tis the season)

[GDR]

Gfs further east in iowa

[bud2380]

It is further east but still pretty strong

[bud2380]

in an odd way, i'm encouraged by the GFS.  Obviously showing 15" of snow was never realistic,  So today's run is much more in line with reality.  And matches up fairly well with the Euro, just slightly stronger and slightly further west.

 

[james1976]

Sucks bad to just barely get missed

[Niko]

in an odd way, i'm encouraged by the GFS.  Obviously showing 15" of snow was never realistic,  So today's run is much more in line with reality.  And matches up fairly well with the Euro, just slightly stronger and slightly further west.

 

Jaster does ok w this. Maybe 2-3" if I am seeing this correctly.

[Stormy]

I took a lot more snow measurements this morning & had some surfaces with around 3.30" where hardly any melting occurred. But the sidewalks and driveway had hardly anything as it was to warm yet. I'll probably go with 2.80" or 3" now. It was kind of a fluffy, dry snow even though temps were marginal and it seemed wet and sticky, but those big flakes added up more, and my gauges all had around 0.25" liquid equivalent. I left the cone top on one gauge as figured it wouldn't snow much and will stick and not blow out anyway, which was ok as it had basically the same amount.

 

Man, the low temp of 23° and snow did a number on the tree leaves! Not sure if I ever saw so many falling so quickly as this morning. Suddenly a few nearly bare trees that still had plenty. Kinda sucks it spoiled the color which I think looks prettier than it does now with the snow rapidly melting

[Clinton]

The trees are full of leaves down here as they are nearing there peak.  This much heavy wet snow could be a problem for them.

[jaster220]

6z Euro becoming more bullish on amounts!  Tom, Jaster, and Niko 

 

Sucks bad to just barely get missed

 

I appreciate the Euro being posted. Nonetheless, IF that's the way things end up going it will be a continuation of last winter's "near misses" (like literally 1/2 county NW) with the sig. snowfall extreme cut-off that happened with every storm post-PV visit. Not sure I can be thrilled for this trend, lol

 

Meanwhile, congrats to all the west part of sub peeps who got their 1st flakes/acuum's in the bag in October! 

[jaster220]

Jaster does ok w this. Maybe 2-3" if I am seeing this correctly.

 

Unfortunately it's an outlier at the moment. Most of that snow back my way happens from backside wrap-around due to the more wound-up solution the GFS portrays. Not betting for or against it, but right now it is not the favored outcome so keeping my anticipation for anything historic in check attm. 

 

WestMJim on the other hand looks golden 

[KCSmokey]

The trees are full of leaves down here as they are nearing there peak. This much heavy wet snow could be a problem for them.

I’m having flashbacks to 1996 surprise storm. Power outages and limbs broken everywhere.

[Niko]

Unfortunately it's an outlier at the moment. Most of that snow back my way happens from backside wrap-around due to the more wound-up solution the GFS portrays. Not betting for or against it, but right now it is not the favored outcome so keeping my anticipation for anything historic in check attm. 

 

WestMJim on the other hand looks golden 

Hopefully you get some of the white stuff as cold air wraps into SWMI.