10/29-10/31 Halloween Winter Storm

[Hawkeye]

Our temp is finally down to 32º.

[bud2380]

My thermometer at home read 41° when the first flakes started to fall. Never seen it that warm with snow before. It’s down to 33 now. I have noticed my thermometer runs 1-2° warm most of the time compared to Iowa city and CR airports so probably was more like 39 or 40° at the onset.

[Hawkeye]

I'd take this snow rate anytime this winter.  Large flakes are dumping.

[Hawkeye]

I've received another 0.7" in less than 30 minutes.  I'm up to 1.5" on the car.  We could sail past 2".

[Madtown]

32.5 here mulch is covered and sticking to grass

[bud2380]

1.3” here. Coming down good.

[Hawkeye]

00z Canadian still keeping the energy positively tilted and stretched out, so not much of a storm for this region.

[bud2380]

Ukie showing some similarities to the GFS. Slightly further east and not quite as strong from what I can tell so far. But looks to be some decent snow

[bud2380]

Ukie

 

[Money]

.4-.6 qpf in eastern IA/WI on the ukie

[East Dubzz]

Regardless of how this system turns out, I really hope it’s not a situation where we get some snow really early in the season and then don’t get anything again until next year.

[East Dubzz]

Not sure how much this is, but I’m pretty impressed. Still coming down pretty good too.

[East Dubzz]

Another photo.

[Hawkeye]

The UK 500 mb flow is a definite improvement.  I've been mentioning how the energy up in southern Canada has been messing with our big storm.  What the GFS shows, and what the UK did a little bit tonight, is the Canada energy hangs back far enough west so that the tilt is less positive and the US energy is able to wrap up a bit better.  We need this to trend more.

[East Dubzz]

It’s too bad this snow won’t be sticking around long. It should would be fun to build a little snowpack on Halloween haha.

[Hawkeye]

The band of snow west of the Quad Cities means business.  The orange returns might be 2"/hr.

[East Dubzz]

This is definitely beating my expectations. Awesome to see this in October!

[bud2380]

Up to 2” on my deck. Crazy. And it’s sticking to the roads now.

[Stormy]

This is crazy. Already got 2" here by around midnight! Sticking to everything and I now have to duck beneath the tree branches that are hanging lower. Still bare under the trees though as they have a lot of leaves still. They were near their peak color and quite pretty but some leaves are falling now. Don't know how accurate my gauges will be as snow piled on the edges at least an inch!

[bud2380]

Actually up to 2.5”. I measured in a bad spot.

[Hawkeye]

There is a 3" report from Fairfax.

[bud2380]

[Stormy]

Wish it was daylight as it's pretty outside! 32° with moderate snow attm. Very light wind which is unusual around here.

[East Dubzz]

2” here with maybe a little to go.

[ToastedRavs]

Definitely outperforming. Both on totals and liquid ratios. A nice surprise! Let's all hope Wed/Thursday does the same across wider area

[hlcater]

I don’t think I’m doing as well as you guys, I’ve only measured 2.0-2.1” in downtown IC. I think the locally warmer temps might’ve hurt my accums a little bit.

[East Dubzz]

Alright, this was a pleasure, but it’s time to head to bed. Night everyone... hopefully we are doing this again in 48 hours.

[Stormy]

Only a few flurries now. I'm going with 2.5" I think. Some spots more, others less. Probably around 3" on the grass or lawn.

[Money]

Euro looks weak

[Grizzcoat]

Yep- this wave for some will likely out perform wave #2- if anything but the GFS verifies

[Hawkeye]

I have 2.5" on my snowboard and grass, 2.8" on the car.  I'm thinking I have to go with 2.5".  It was certainly better than I expected.  Everything is caked in heavy white snow.

[Stormy]

[Sciascia]

I’ve been up since 4:20am, but I had to stay up to see the first falling snow of the season at my new house in Poplar Grove, IL. It has started to snow, I am excited, and I get to go to bed.

 

Cheers, everyone!

[Grizzcoat]

Checked about 1/2 dozen sites on raw data from Euro and it shows from .16" to about .40" liquid that would be all snow. highest is DVN.  Iowa City is .26". DSM is .16".

 

Others---

 

MCI = .21"

OTM = .26"

OMA- = .12"

[Hawkeye]

Like the UK, the 00z Euro is a slight improvement Wed/Thu... still a long way to go to get back to where the GFS is.

[Grizzcoat]

Chicago area soundings have sub 0C 850MB temps but 925 to surface layer is +0C -- but it's really close.

[Hawkeye]

3.5" in Lowden, IA. (east of CR, nw of QC)

[Grizzcoat]

Will be very interesting reading AM AFD's -- DMX said a few days ago that by Monday night's runs things should be more concise. My guess is the GFS gets the boot....

[Grizzcoat]

06Z NAM suite is pretty dismal for most of IA.

[Grizzcoat]

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

403 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019
 

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29 2019 - 12Z Fri Nov 01 2019
 

Days 2-3...
 

...Central Plains to the northern Great Lakes...

Even by early Wednesday, models continue to disagree on the timing

of the upper trough/low moving east of the Rockies.  Similar to

previous runs, the GFS is faster than the other models as the

system moves east across the central Plains.  By early Thursday,

as the system moves into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi

valleys, the GFS is deeper and farther to the south than the

general model consensus - developing heavier precipitation as the

system pivots northeast into the Great Lakes region on Thursday. 

With respect to QPF/snowfall accumulations, WPC continued to

prefer a solution more similar to the ECMWF and its ensemble mean

- indicating mainly light snowfall amounts shifting northeast from

the central Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday into early

Thursday.  While the GFS is likely overdone, do feel there is some

potential for a band of organized heavier amounts to develop from

eastern Iowa to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin on

Thursday.
 

For Days 1-3, the probability of significant icing is less than 10

percent.
 

Pereira