SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Outstanding news Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Not trying to be overly negative, but let's hope the 12Z was an outlier. Falls apart in the long-range with a boring winter pattern, with most appreciable cold completely gone this run. Onto the EURO, I suppose. ...I'd take my windstorm at this point.How about a GoFundMe to get this kid at the very least a desk fan? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Not hyperbole to say this run was soul crushing. Time to stick a fork in it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 The pull-back before the hammer-drop? The king will be telling. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 The pull-back before the hammer-drop? The king will be telling. You could be right?! We have seen it so many times! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Day 8-9 Yakima the Operational is an outlier by 6.3c. Ensemble mean -8.0c. Operational -1.7c 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Yeah looks like they are already over their annual precip average. It has genuinely been really dry here and I still encounter transplants here complaining about how it is always raining or gloomy.I remember someone on another forum said back in May that it had just rained 3 straight months in San Diego. April was under 1” of precip. March was only slightly over an inch, I think. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 The 850 mb warmup is much quicker on the 12Z GEFS vs the 6X Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 12z GEFS Day 6-7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 The 850 mb warmup is much quicker on the 12Z GEFS vs the 6X Guess it really is over. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 12z UKMET out to day 6. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 DM me for my PayPal and for $5000 USD, I will weenie tag anyone.I will do it for $4999 USD. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 I will do it for $4999 USD.Do you take Tim Hortons rewards points? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 GEFS is a major buzzkill in the mid-long range...wow Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 A pretty fun morning for the several here who seem to enjoy wallowing in their own misery. Score!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 GEFS is a major buzzkill in the mid-long range...wowIt'll change. Buckle up n stuff. 12z ECMWF in 21 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 It's a pretty big deviation from earlier runs though, so we may still have hope. But I know Portlanders are itching for something appreciable after last February.East of I-205 and with more elevation did fine last February/early March. Morning of the 9th of March hereHere was February 25We had snow on the ground most days during this stretch. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Phil would tell us we should not be surprised. December won't be special in the PNW, but this is a nice semi/warning shot. Again very similar to the late November 2014 period.. Trust Phil. He says January will top 1937. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Long range isn't shabby 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 man and I thought K12 took it rough last year with his frame by frame model riding before he learned to let it go a bit. We got some full grown weather smart adults on here going to a deep dark place based on an operational run from a marginal system that has never locked into any solution so far. haha jk I remember this too. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Do you take Tim Hortons rewards points?Canadian Tire money will suffice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Talk me through this, guys. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Talk me through this, guys. Quid pro snow no 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 man and I thought K12 took it rough last year with his frame by frame model riding before he learned to let it go a bit. We got some full grown weather smart adults on here going to a deep dark place based on an operational run from a marginal system that has never locked into any solution so far. haha jk I remember this too.Such a consistently rational poster with such a strange username. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Talk me through this, guys. Things could be worse. You could be getting out of jail after serving an 8 year sentence for a crime of passion, you have never met your daughter, all you have to do is fly home. When the plane is taken over by a bunch of criminal psychopath's who seem to possess superhuman powers and you are the only one who can do anything about it. How about that for perspective! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Looks like the ensembles build a ridge overhead or nearby around the 3-5th of Dec and then about half of them want to retrograde it by the end of the run. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Almost Euro time 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Things could be worse. You could be getting out of jail after serving an 8 year sentence for a crime of passion, you have never met your daughter, all you have to do is fly home. When the plane is taken over by a bunch of criminal psychopath's who seem to possess superhuman powers and you are the only one who can do anything about it. How about that for perspective!Not a single flake of snow in that movie. Even the heavy rain at the beginning struck me as occurring with 850mb temps around 12-13c. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Salem +0.4 departure through yesterday. Pretty decent chance they can pull off a negative departure this month. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 12z ECMWF is now running! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Almost Euro time12z ECMWF is now running!It's showtime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 man and I thought K12 took it rough last year with his frame by frame model riding before he learned to let it go a bit. We got some full grown weather smart adults on here going to a deep dark place based on an operational run from a marginal system that has never locked into any solution so far. haha jk I remember this too. I don't think anyone is actually shocked or seriously upset by the models fluctuating. Just some friendly trolling. I for one am just happy that there is something to look at on the models other than a giant ridge sitting over us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Things could be worse. You could be getting out of jail after serving an 8 year sentence for a crime of passion, you have never met your daughter, all you have to do is fly home. When the plane is taken over by a bunch of criminal psychopath's who seem to possess superhuman powers and you are the only one who can do anything about it. How about that for perspective! Nicolas Cage was in that one--Con Air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 12z ECMWF is now running! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Got down to a respectable 25 degrees earlier this morning. Now sitting at 32 and foggy.Crystal clear here with an east wind and 42. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Clear and 41F after a morning low of 27F. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Lmao winter cancel! Honestly I’ve been watching the models long enough to know that nothing outside of 5 days is guaranteed. This still is a good run, much better than what we expected 2 weeks ago, solidly chilly still in the short term and probably will end up being chilly in the long term. Pull back before the hammer drop has happened many times and even if it doesn’t oh well. Still better than where we were. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Right now I am projecting SLE to run a -0.4F departure for November. This is based on the following numbers through the end of the month. 21st: 52/3022nd: 51/3223rd: 52/3524th: 52/4125th: 48/3926th: 45/3727th: 45/3328th: 45/2829th: 47/3330th: 50/35 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 I’m still liking where the models are taking us, much more active than the first half of November. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Right now I am projecting SLE to run a -0.4F departure for November. This is based on the following numbers through the end of the month. 21st: 52/3022nd: 51/3223rd: 52/3524th: 52/4125th: 48/3926th: 45/3727th: 45/3328th: 45/2829th: 47/3330th: 50/35Those aren't very snowy temps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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