November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

Wonder if that low will just decide to cut off completely at some point.

[Requiem]

Not an amazing run so far...

[Jesse]

2004-05

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12z

 

[Deweydog]

Chilly out this morning!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lets see if than energy in the mid-range slides east or drops south. Through hour 216 though...Well this is just sad. Maybe a few days with frost next week at least 

[High Desert Mat?]

Still gets cold. Cold air will be in place for what seems to be the end of the run. The moisture is what’s missing. A low could come out of nowhere and has many times in the past. Saturday is when I think the details will be worked out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I feel terrible for folks in Washington County.

[FroYoBro]

I feel terrible for folks in Washington County.

 

 

My life is so terrible. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My life is so terrible. 

 

I really feel bad for all of us, but Washington County has the biggest significant snow drought in the PNW lowlands. Going back to January 17' since they have seen more than just some slop.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The models can be so cruel.

[Dave]

From here on out, I propose that all model riding is forbidden until 12/1. At least for those in the wv.

[Jesse]

I really feel bad for all of us, but Washington County has the biggest significant snow drought in the PNW lowlands. Going back to January 17' since they have seen more than just some slop.

I thought Eugene always held the honor.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I thought Eugene always held the honor.

 

Weather records indicate they received a trace of snow toward the end of last February.

[Deweydog]

January 2005 with the volume turned WAY up.

[Omegaraptor]

I really feel bad for all of us, but Washington County has the biggest significant snow drought in the PNW lowlands. Going back to January 17' since they have seen more than just some slop.

Yup, ground has not been completely covered here since January 2017. Almost three years now.

 

Even parts of the PHOENIX METRO had the ground completely covered.

 

We got screwed on precip too. Susanville, a town in NE CA which averages 13” of rain a year had more rain than us the first half of 2019. Didn’t help that the 4/7/19 event screwed us over and gave Eugene record rainfall while we were right around average for the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yup, ground has not been completely covered here since January 2017. Almost three years now.

 

Even parts of the PHOENIX METRO had the ground completely covered.

 

We got screwed on precip too. Susanville, a town in NE CA which averages 13” of rain a year had more rain than us the first half of 2019. Didn’t help that the 4/7/19 event screwed us over and gave Eugene record rainfall while we were right around average for the month.

 

I really hope you do not have to wait as long as Eugene did. 

[Requiem]

Most major cold is gone mid-range too— pretty bad run overall.

[Jesse]

Anyone want to start a gofundme to get Andrew weenie tagged?

[MossMan]

A dark day on the forum. However it was a bright and frosty drive to work! LOVE mornings like this!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anyone want to start a gofundme to get Andrew weenie tagged?

 

If you need a hug Jesse, I am here for you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A dark day on the forum. However it was a bright and frosty drive to work! LOVE mornings like this!!

 

What a beautiful scene. It reminds us there are still some blessings in life. 

[Requiem]

Not trying to be overly negative, but let's hope the 12Z was an outlier. Falls apart in the long-range with a boring winter pattern, with most appreciable cold completely gone this run. Onto the EURO, I suppose.

 

...I'd take my windstorm at this point.

[Perturbed Member]

I really feel bad for all of us, but Washington County has the biggest significant snow drought in the PNW lowlands. Going back to January 17' since they have seen more than just some slop.

 

 

Based on annual snowfall and precip, one would probably suspect Washington County was somewhere in the outskirts of Sacramento. 

[Deweydog]

DM me for my PayPal and for $5000 USD, I will weenie tag anyone.

Quid pro quo!!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not trying to be overly negative, but let's hope the 12Z was an outlier. Falls apart in the long-range with a boring winter pattern, with most appreciable cold completely gone this run. Onto the EURO, I suppose.

 

...I'd take my windstorm at this point.

 

Not hyperbole to say this run was soul crushing. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM op is worse than the GFS.... Block sets up too far west, tilt is awful, no amplification, but a stout southeast ridge! GEFS running....

[Omegaraptor]

Based on annual snowfall and precip, one would probably suspect Washington County was somewhere in the outskirts of Sacramento.

 

Hillsboro is at 20.97” YTD

 

Sacramento is at 19.49” YTD, and they were actually ahead of us until October

 

[Requiem]

Not hyperbole to say this run was soul crushing. 

 

It's a pretty big deviation from earlier runs though, so we may still have hope. But I know Portlanders are itching for something appreciable after last February.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's a pretty big deviation from earlier runs though, so we may still have hope. But I know Portlanders are itching for something appreciable after last February.

 

Yeah the Monday-Thursday period will be chilly. That is locked in, but everything after that just kind of fell apart. The 06z gave some hope in that timeframe, but then backed off this run. We shall see. Think ice and frost crystals. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hillsboro is at 20.97” YTD

 

Sacramento is at 19.49” YTD, and they were actually ahead of us until October

 

C16DD8C4-E243-4FEC-8838-10673EC0173C.png

 

Here, let me get my microscope out to make sense of the numbers on this map.

[Requiem]

GEM seems colder, so that's a plus! I honestly do think the 12Z was a huge warm outlier-- after runs of pretty solid consistency it dropped a huge ball.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The long range GFS is actually pretty chilly. 

[Omegaraptor]

Here, let me get my microscope out to make sense of the numbers on this map.

 

Here it is without the numbers

[seattleweatherguy]

Two different versions of brett andersons forecast just for comparison

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-weather-pattern-update-into-mid-december/631093

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/update-on-the-weather-pattern-into-december/628450

[Perturbed Member]

Hillsboro is at 20.97” YTD

 

Sacramento is at 19.49” YTD, and they were actually ahead of us until October

 

C16DD8C4-E243-4FEC-8838-10673EC0173C.png

 

Yeah looks like they are already over their annual precip average.

 

It has genuinely been really dry here and I still encounter transplants here complaining about how it is always raining or gloomy.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS very similar to 6z. PDX mean temp -7c, cluster to -10c. Yakima -11c, cluster to -14c.

[Requiem]

12z GEFS very similar to 6z. PDX mean temp -7c, cluster to -10c. Yakima -11c, cluster to -14c.

 

See, I'm confident that it was just a warm outlier of some kind. Lots of model noise.

[Gradient Keeper]

UPDATE

 

12z GEFS Day 7-8 Operational outlier by 4-5c.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Most major cold is gone mid-range too— pretty bad run overall.

 

Things like this are why I take model runs more than about five days out and especially ones more than a week out with more than just a grain of salt.

http://www.bergenphc.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Salt-Block.png