Stormhunter87 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Better start stockpiling the bread and milk now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 NAM looking close for E Iowa Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 18z GEFS pretty much in line with the op run, maybe a bit south with the mean. I think we’re starting to see some stability from the models today. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Winter Storm Watches begin to be hoisted west of me. NWS Hastings already saying several inches or more here are possible with wind. Looks interesting Monday night through Tuesday 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Uh yeah that is crazy looking. Here comes another blocking induced loop-de-loop storm 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Winter Storm Watches begin to be hoisted west of me. NWS Hastings already saying several inches or more here are possible with wind. Looks interesting Monday night through Tuesday Always nice to see.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 MPX being their usual conservative selves. Probably wise. Still a ways to go with this. But a 10% chance of any accumulation? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just cleaned up my property from this week's windy rainstorm this afternoon. Another round of leafs ripped from trees appears to be in my future.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 MPX being their usual conservative selves. Probably wise. Still a ways to go with this. But a 10% chance of any accumulation? Still feeling snake-bit from Vet's Day? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Mowed up the remaining leaves that blew in the other night. Everything is nice and clean. Looks like almost 100% of the leaves are now down in my area. Let it snow now. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Still feeling snake-bit from Vet's Day? Not sure. I don’t think the models were showing a good bit here within 72 hours with that storm. Either way. still plenty of time with this one. If the models keep showing what they showed today, they can start upping the hype I think. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Looks like I was correct wrt an impending windstorm GRR tidbits: The Tuesday into Wednesday system, at least to me presents asignificant high wind threat with it. The ensemble members of theECMWF have many of the versions showing wind gusts to over 50 mphboth along the coast and inland. Given that both models show adeepening storm with a brief shot of cold air behind the systemthis would make sense. We will likely need another small craft advisory for Monday thena gale watch for Wednesday (maybe a storm force wind watch). Might as well take wind if we can't get snow Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Looks like I was correct wrt an impending windstorm GRR tidbits: The Tuesday into Wednesday system, at least to me presents asignificant high wind threat with it. The ensemble members of theECMWF have many of the versions showing wind gusts to over 50 mphboth along the coast and inland. Given that both models show adeepening storm with a brief shot of cold air behind the systemthis would make sense. We will likely need another small craft advisory for Monday thena gale watch for Wednesday (maybe a storm force wind watch). Might as well take wind if we can't get snow Yes, wind will be the main factor w next weeks midweek storm w possible leftover flurries or wet snowshowers. The bulk of the precip will be done w by the time cold air arrives. Winds will be the main factor. I can definitely see a High Wind Watch be posted. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 NAM pretty similar Good hit from C IA to SW/C WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Smoked centra Iowa 8-12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 NAM pretty similarGood hit from C IA to SW/C WI Smoked centralIowa 8-12 MORE?? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 GFS holds serve it looks like. Totals increased in SE MN into C WI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Canadian makes a push north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 EURO is quite a bit more bullish than the other models. Interesting. Hope it's right but with marginal temps I doubt it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 NWS Hastings becoming more confident of a snow storm Tuesday. https://twitter.com/nwshastings/status/1198560779781337088?s=21 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Nice map. So far, GRR has "breezy" in my grid for wednesday despite the AFD wording I posted last night. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 NWS Hastings becoming more confident of a snow storm Tuesday.https://twitter.com/nwshastings/status/1198560779781337088?s=21 Would this be more snow than you've had with previous systems? Edit: This year I meant Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 6z Euro 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 6z Euro mean and ensembles. Nebraska lookin white! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 towel thrown here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 6z Euro UP of Michigan Special right there. Perfect timing as that region is notorious for it's Thanksgiving storms. Grew up hearing one of my uncles tell the story about how they "got buried" trying to get home from deer camp back in the late 40's. It was snowing so hard they couldn't see the highway after dark so they pulled off into a business that was closed (was a Sunday night iirc). They all fell asleep and when they awoke all the windows were covered with snow! They couldn't see anything but snow. They thought it had snowed so hard that night as to bury their car. Until they opened a door and found out they'd just been plowed under by the gas station's snow plow truck. Had to dig their way out of a snow pile to continue home, lol. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 towel thrown here Yeah, that sucks. You at least had a legit shot. Us further SE were just teased by a fluke run or two. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 UP of Michigan Special right there. Perfect timing as that region is notorious for it's Thanksgiving storms. Grew up hearing one of my uncles tell the story about how they "got buried" trying to get home from deer camp back in the late 40's. It was snowing so hard they couldn't see the highway after dark so they pulled off into a business that was closed (was a Sunday night iirc). They all fell asleep and when they awoke all the windows were covered with snow! They couldn't see anything but snow. They thought it had snowed so hard that night as to bury their car. Until they opened a door and found out they'd just been plowed under by the gas station's snow plow truck. Had to dig their way out of a snow pile to continue home, lol. LOL now thats a trip! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Thanks for posting the maps, Clinton. Looking good for at least a few inches here. This might double or even triple our snowfall total so far this season. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Also, where is Gosaints?? Rochester area looking real good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Also, where is Gosaints?? Rochester area looking real good.Didn't even look at a model until this morning. Chances look decent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Would this be more snow than you've had with previous systems? Edit: This year I meantYes. Most I’ve had is a little over 2” in a single event 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Thanks for posting the maps, Clinton. Looking good for at least a few inches here. This might double or even triple our snowfall total so far this season.quite a slow start to the season, but at the point where one storm can get us to average. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 As has been the case this year, models trending wetter/stronger as we get closer to the event. Nice wound up storm shaping up for you guys out west/north. Some places may see a record daily snow tally from this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 High rez NAM showing possible thundersnow in E NE/IA...interesting convection showing up... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 All globals and NAM have a sub-990 mb low crossing NMI on Wed. This is a windstorm in the making for SMI, but 12z NAM wants to throw in some squalls?? 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Bam! This would be fun. Pretty good jump west and stronger on the NAM 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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