December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[Niko]

Attm, 36F under partly cloudy skies. Dropping into the 20s tanite.

[Niko]

Go EC go! Lovin the look 

[Niko]

Currently at 34F under partly cloudy skies. Gorgeous evening out there.

[Niko]

Looks like the 40s return by the middle of next week and want to hang around till the weekend. Yikes. Gets colder the following week but only brings my area back to normal or even still slightly above the norm.

[Niko]

To no ones surprise, GFS in the 8-16 day range is back to looking like crap.

Yep...I agree. Nothing to brag about, that's for sure.

[Tom]

Could this be the blessing we have been waiting for???  I first spotted the trends of more blocking being picked up near Hudson Bay & the N Atlantic off the 00z EPS run on the 27th during the 4th/5th time frame.

 

 

 

 

Over the past 2 runs, interestingly, this blocking is growing stronger and spreading N up into the Arctic regions.  Look at the subtle differences from last nights 00z EPS run and this has sparked my interest.  The ridging across N Canada is allowing to press the jet stream farther south in recent runs allowing for more cold to "press".  Not only that, but there is a better signal of less troughing over the Pole near Alaska by Day 10.

 

 

 

Look at the reversal of lower surface surface pressures up near Alaska caused by the Polar Vortex.  Here is today's map...

 

 

 

By Day 8-9, the period Jan (4th/5th) I've been looking for to start seeing higher pressures...

 

 

 

 

Is this the "flip" we have all been yearning for???  It would be a pleasant trend to see if this 30mb warm pool that is growing across NW NAMER starting around Dec 15th to correlate with the ideas I showed the other day.

 

 

 

Finally, but looky what we have here....I had to scratch my eyes a couple times when I saw this but the GEFS are potentially sniffing out that blocking pattern up across western Greenland/NE Canada which is right where we saw this development in the Autumn during the early stages of the developing LRC.

 

 

 

 

 

[Clinton]

There are a couple of systems showing up on last nights EC.  If we can get the blocking that Tom mentioned these would have potential.

[GDR]

I called up President Trump told him we need pattern change and he said he’ll get right on that! God bless you and God bless America

[Niko]

Attm, 32F under cloudy skies.

[Niko]

There are a couple of systems showing up on last nights EC.  If we can get the blocking that Tom mentioned these would have potential.

I'll accept this map bud..no questions asked!

[Niko]

NOAA:

Large barotropic low pressure system will then be slow to exit for
the early part of next week. There has been consistency in showing
that vorticity center will push directly into Lower Michigan on
Tuesday. DCVA and a favorable frontal zone through the DGZ suggests
favorable conditions for widespread snow showers. Increased PoPs and
snow chances into the categorical range for the daytime Tuesday.
Relatively warmer surface temperatures may temper expectations, but
reduced visibilities and minor accumulations will be possible.

 

There is some hope.It will be funny if December provides a mini snowevent right b4 it leaves.

[Clinton]

I'll accept this map bud..no questions asked!

Me too!  Some is better than none lol.

[jaster220]

Attm, 32F under cloudy skies.

 

Was AOB 32F from about midnight til 10 am here. Nice to see freezing temps, if only for a brief minute before this next wave of heat. Only got to 38F yesterday tho, so it felt much more like December at least. Didn't see those motorcycle dudes any where..

[Hawkeye]

GFS still showing nothing until mid January, then it's another mostly-rain system.

[Stormhunter87]

GFS still showing nothing until mid January, then it's another mostly-rain system.

At least there are periods of cold this time lol. End of the run showed something

[hlcater]

Exactly. At least there’s some cold air, maybe we can get a 2-4” birdfart somewhere in there. I need something

[Stormhunter87]

Exactly. At least there’s some cold air, maybe we can get a 2-4” birdfart somewhere in there. I need something

I like this lol but I agree been crappy here.

[Andie]

65* and sunny after a line of rain pushed through. Received .25" rain.

Tomorrow will be in the 50's.

 

Wish it was more. We need it.

[SE Wisconsin]

From the MKX AFD:

 

"Several inches of snow will be possible by Tuesday
morning with the highest amounts towards central Wisconsin. Snow
could impact the Tuesday morning commute. There is still some
uncertainty with the timing of this system which could impact
amounts."

 

Very interesting.  Could be nothing at all, or could be something fun to watch.  Don't recall seeing anything like this in any previous AFDs, or at least to this extent.  We'll see what happens.  Be nice to see December go out with a bang in SE WI.

[Thunder98]

Forecast high of 64F tomorrow in Cincinnati with heavy showers, then it drops to 39F on Tuesday. 

 

[Niko]

Me too!  Some is better than none lol.

Yes sir!

[Niko]

Was AOB 32F from about midnight til 10 am here. Nice to see freezing temps, if only for a brief minute before this next wave of heat. Only got to 38F yesterday tho, so it felt much more like December at least. Didn't see those motorcycle dudes any where..

Too bad it warms up again by midweek and continuing right into the weekend w temps in the 40s. Keep in mind, my average H/L this time of the year is 32/21

 

Yep, those bikers went back inside their caves again

[Niko]

Attm, its partly cloudy w temp at 33F. Still averaging AN.

[Niko]

65* and sunny after a line of rain pushed through. Received .25" rain.

Tomorrow will be in the 50's.

 

Wish it was more. We need it.

How is the humidity at this time of the year? I'm pretty sure its at comfortable levels, right.

[MIKEKC]

Severe thunderstorm warnings here in KC. Tropical outside right now. Heavy rainfall...

 

The LRC based forecast for K.C. Christmas week was for arctic air and a major winter storm. The total opposite is happening.

 

I kid you not, turf that is heavily treated and mowed down here is green, green like mid April green....especially after the rains today.

 

Looks like temps will continue to be above average for some time. We are 6 degrees above average on temps for Dec. Yuck!!

 

#winter has left the building

[Clinton]

Yes sir!

Are you expecting much out of this?

[Niko]

Are you expecting much out of this?

No. Maybe a dusting here or there at the most adding to slick spots. Thats all. Keep in mind, 40s return by midweek and lasts right through the weekend.

[Niko]

Attm, 31F under crystal clear skies.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Most rainfall should move out by Monday afternoon as another dry
punch moves in, though some drizzle may linger into the evening.
Temperatures will reach their max in the upper 40s early Monday
morning ahead of the incoming occluded front, then steadily fall
through the day and reach the upper 30s by evening. Winds will be
southwest and breezy through the day with gusts of about 30 mph. The
deep occluded system will wobble over the western Great Lakes Monday
night, then release eastward on Tuesday. This will allow solid PVA
and height falls to pass overhead while cold advection ramps up by
midday. Model soundings depict good saturation in the -12 to -18 C
layer and surface temps falling to the lower 30s, confirming
favorability for lake-enhanced snow showers. Categorical PoPs remain
in the forecast, with light accumulations of about a half inch to
1.5 inches with the higher totals north of I-69. The bulk of the
snow showers will taper off by late afternoon or early evening as
drier air fills in aloft.

[jaster220]

Attm, 31F under crystal clear skies.

 

Noice! Still 39F here, tho my 42F high was a full 4 degs below the forecast fwiw. Really, it only got in the 40s briefly while the sun peeked out. For a while, I thought we might just stay in the 30s again for a 2nd straight day. 

[jaster220]

No. Maybe a dusting here or there at the most adding to slick spots. Thats all. Keep in mind, 40s return by midweek and lasts right through the weekend.

 

I know that clipper/arctic front on the 17th was a disappointment over your way, but I feel this system has a chance to make up for it and do better than expected. Ofc, should keep expectations in check so the surprise can only be a GOOD one 

[Andie]

Nice images in our area tonight after the rain. Big double rainbow. Second one we’ve had this year.

Cool down tomorrow into the 50’s.

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

I know that clipper/arctic front on the 17th was a disappointment over your way, but I feel this system has a chance to make up for it and do better than expected. Ofc, should keep expectations in check so the surprise can only be a GOOD one 

I hope so amigo.

 

I think dry air rushes in quickly though and ends any snowshower activity.

[Niko]

Nice images in our area tonight after the rain. Big double rainbow. Second one we’ve had this year.

Cool down tomorrow into the 50’s.

 

B83402A4-8AC7-4071-866F-7BCBA5FB46F4.jpeg

 

7C3795DC-630B-4AD9-9750-9277CEA01F75.jpeg

 

8D2D6F14-CFD3-43F9-BBC4-2EF6AD96343A.jpeg

 

EE27C721-BF61-4819-9FE5-7A9376272EAE.jpeg

Awesome pics......

[Niko]

Today I found a snowpile back from Veterans Day major snowstorm......

 

[clintbeed1993]

Today I found a snowpile back from Veterans Day major snowstorm......

 

Snowpile in November.jpg

 

That about sums up December 2019 in one picture

[dubuque473]

Looks like 1.11” worth of rain yesterday.

[Niko]

That about sums up December 2019 in one picture

Not unless I get snow Monday night into Tuesday.......

 

NOAA:

There is a chance for accumulating snow Monday night into Tuesday. 1to 3 inches of accumulation is expected at this time.

[Niko]

Attm, hvy rain w temps at 38F.

[jaster220]

 

Not unless I get snow Monday night into Tuesday.......

 

NOAA:

There is a chance for accumulating snow Monday night into Tuesday. 1to 3 inches of accumulation is expected at this time.

 

haha! There you are my friend. NOAA on board