December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[jaster220]

APX's SN Stake looks more like 5-6" depth there at the office. No brown-grounder up there!

 

[Niko]

From what I am seeing, no real snow chances until maybe heading into January around the mid part of the month. We will see. Hopefully, it changes. I just pray that we don't waste the first part of Jan.

[Money]

From what I am seeing, no real snow chances until maybe heading into January around the mid part of the month. We will see. Hopefully, it changes. I just pray that we don't waste the first part of Jan.

There’s signs of a storm around the 2nd-3rd of January

 

GFS/CMC/ECMWF all show this

[Niko]

There’s signs of a storm around the 2nd-3rd of January

 

GFS/CMC/ECMWF all show this

Yep...I saw that, but unfortunately, it looks like I might be on the warm side of this system. Still plenty of time for this to change.

[westMJim]

For anyone dreaming of a white Christmas 

 

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/

 

Even there the temperatures are will into the 30's

[westMJim]

Here at my house the temperature is now up to 52 with sunny skies. The last official reading at GRR was 49

[james1976]

Merry Christmas gang. I did the family thing yesterday. Today I'm gonna watch some basketball and grill up some chicken breasts. Already 55°

[SE Wisconsin]

For anyone dreaming of a white Christmas 

 

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/

 

Even there the temperatures are will into the 30's

Looks as though there is a nice base on the cross country ski trails.  I might need to make a trip up there to get in some decent skiing this winter.

[westMJim]

With a official reading of 54° Grand Rapids now has a new 3rd warmest Christmas in recorded history. At this time here at my house I am up to 60 so will have to see what GRR has at the 3 PM reading.

[Hawkeye]

It's 58º here in Cedar Rapids and low 60s in southeast Iowa.  Combined with the partly to mostly sunny sky and light wind, this is likely the nicest Christmas weather on record.

 

I think we may come up a hair short of 60º in CR.

[mlgamer]

65F on my thermometer on a sunny spring like day. The Christmas eve blizzard here was ten years ago. What a contrast....

[OmahaSnowFan]

What a weird day temperature wise here as we’ve been right along the nearly stationary cold front. Temps fell to 34 just after midnight last night but then rose back to 45 by 2a and stayed steady until 430. Then they fell and stayed at 31 until 830. Temps rose to 40 but then were stuck there for almost an hour. We crossed back over to the warm side of the front and warmed all the way to 56.5 at 2:20. I was going to write this message saying how warm we are, but now the front has dropped back south of me again and in 25 minutes we’ve fallen 11 degrees back to 45 degrees! It’s 35 degrees about 20 miles north of here and in the low 60s in southeast Nebraska

[jcwxguy]

18z icon

[OmahaSnowFan]

41.7 now and still falling

[OmahaSnowFan]

35.8 now. 21 degree drop in 3 hours, unbelievable. It’s a different season out there now

[Clinton]

@ Clinton, how does the EPS look through Day 10???

Wild temp swings and several storms.

[Clinton]

Would be nice to get this in the d5 range 

I hope so buddy, still a lot of uncertainty with temps for both of us.

[CentralNebWeather]

35.8 now. 21 degree drop in 3 hours, unbelievable. It’s a different season out there now

Wow. We never rose above 32 all day here.

[BrianJK]

Wow. We never rose above 32 all day here.

Haven’t been below 32 here in quite some time and don’t expect to be anytime soon.

[Stacsh]

With a official reading of 54° Grand Rapids now has a new 3rd warmest Christmas in recorded history. At this time here at my house I am up to 60 so will have to see what GRR has at the 3 PM reading.

Looks like 55 was the official high temp?

[Stormhunter87]

It was 70 here in St. Louis. Weird feeling but nice considering the coming pattern change.

[snowstorm83]

Also hit 70 down here in crusty ole Memphis. Lots of short sleeves and shorts out today for Christmas day activities. 

[westMJim]

Looks like 55 was the official high temp?

yes, 55 looks to be the days official high at Grand Rapids.

[Clinton]

Very warm day today, I hit 68 but KC came up just short of a record.

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

It was quite the gradient across the state today

 

Wow. We never rose above 32 all day here.

[jaster220]

Looks like 55 was the official high temp?

 

I was out of town, but I see Marshall hit 57F around 3 pm. Left my sister's place near Frankenmuth and it was only 32F, then suddenly not too far south my car thermo was reading 46F and I thought it was broken. Now I see my hunch was correct. That front is draped right thru that region. 

[jaster220]

You want a White Christmas? How 'bout the hills around LA?? From firestorms to whiteouts!  Something you don't see every day in too many places in America: 

 

[Hawkeye]

It's almost midnight on Christmas and we're still in the low 50s.

[Madtown]

47 here...just nuts

[Hawkeye]

Euro continues to show a system a week out.

 

[Grizzcoat]

Just watched PP on AccuWX. He too is concerned about being too cold in early JAN due to the unfavorable phase(s) of the MJO along with the AO only being negative for a short time before going +. Doesn't have much faith in the GFS past 4.5 to 5 days. IMO- what is going to happen is a repeat of the active pattern we had in NOV and early DEC- storms come but not enough cold air to get snow S of MN and basically the 45 Latitude. I have sneaky suspicion at least one of the upcoming storms is even going to cut even more W than "normal?" being a Dakotoas special and rain for many. Just not getting things to line up they way many of us need them. Christmas is at least looking at little bit more interesting and I would even take a RASN mix at this juncture.590x334_12191048_screen-shot-2019-12-19-at-5.48.02-am.png

Written a week ago. Need more sustained cold to have any chance S of LAT 43-- from a classic cutter 150 miles NW of the LOW for heaviest snowfall -  minus wrap around BS.

[jlp]

Euro continues to show a system a week out.

 

Canadian does as well. Hopefully we can connect with colder air this go around.

[Tom]

Already set a record at midnight when ORD hit 57F!  Incredible warmth...ONLY dipped to 53F so far and looking to torch up past 60F today???  I actually had my window cracked open all night and it felt kinda nice to have some fresh air seeping into my room while sleeping.  This is something I'll never forget.

 

On a side note, I had a marvelous time with my entire family over last night for Christmas.  The bonus of having a party at your place are the leftovers!  Yummy!  I hope you all enjoyed time with family and friends.

[Tom]

Setting records here in Chicago....unprecedented late December warmth...

 

 

 

[Tom]

Clinton, how does the EPS look in Week 2?  Is it showing the cold coming around Jan 4th/5th??  I think the pattern post the early Jan storm is going to feature a dominant N stream with volatile periods of transitioning cold in between storm systems.  This is the part of the LRC which produced a NW Flow regime for about a couple weeks.

[Clinton]

Clinton, how does the EPS look in Week 2?  Is it showing the cold coming around Jan 4th/5th??  I think the pattern post the early Jan storm is going to feature a dominant N stream with volatile periods of transitioning cold in between storm systems.  This is the part of the LRC which produced a NW Flow regime for about a couple weeks.

I'm not sure didn't have a chance to look this morning, going to be on the road a lot today and I'll try to post later.

[Stacsh]

Looks to me pretty up and down the first 2 weeks of January.  After that who knows.  Got a feeling we will not see prolonged arctic air this year as the PV seems quite strong and sturdy.  Still a long 2 months until March so plenty of time to get some cold and snow down in the lower great lakes.  But for now we look to the extended models and pray.  

[Niko]

Attm, its 43F w mostly cloudy skies and heading up to the mid 50s, if not higher.

 

Yesterday at the Christmas party, the host was grillin outside. I could not believe my eyes. Just amazing warmth for this time of the year. People were outside w their drinks chatting. I kept saying to myself, is this really Christmas in MI or are we down south. Numerous cities had this warmth as well (i.e., relatives on the EC as well) Crazy!

[Niko]

Looks to me pretty up and down the first 2 weeks of January.  After that who knows.  Got a feeling we will not see prolonged arctic air this year as the PV seems quite strong and sturdy.  Still a long 2 months until March so plenty of time to get some cold and snow down in the lower great lakes.  But for now we look to the extended models and pray.  

Yep...That Jan 2-3rd storm is looking like a rain event here. After that, it looks dry and seasonably cold, if not slightly above the norm. There goes half of January right there.

[Niko]

You want a White Christmas? How 'bout the hills around LA?? From firestorms to whiteouts!  Something you don't see every day in too many places in America: 

 

20191225 Los Angeles NWS graphic.GIF

Usually, when we have very mild weather, places around the country have wacky weather as well.