December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[Niko]

  Despite this holiday week torching, I'm actually happy I got what I did in December. Huge improvement over last year, and the recent snow actually stuck around nicely and made the run-up to Christmas much more festive. 

That was a sweet bonus from Santa Claus. U c, miracles do happen during Christmas....

[Niko]

Temps at 46F now. Possibly more fog developing later at nite. I've been having some foggy nites lately. Some ice fog as well.

[Niko]

Snowstorm hits Cali......

https://www.tumblr.com/widgets/share/tool/preview?shareSource=legacy&canonicalUrl=&posttype=link&url=https://news.yahoo.com/vehicles-stuck-freeway-major-snowstorm-164717793.html&title=Vehicles%20Stuck%20on%20Freeway%20as%20Major%20Snowstorm%20Hits%20California

[jaster220]

That was a sweet bonus from Santa Claus. U c, miracles do happen during Christmas....

 

Direct from the North Pole, LOL..total surprise out of nowhere! 

[Niko]

Direct from the North Pole, LOL..total surprise out of nowhere! 

[Niko]

Attm, 45F under partly cloudy skies. Hard to believe that my nighttime low temps will remain in the 40s for this time of the year. Considering my average high is in the mid 30s or slightly below that. Wow!

[Niko]

Attm, 52F even at this hour. Unreal.

[jaster220]

Attm, 52F even at this hour. Unreal.

 

One thing's for sure in this warm globe era. Any chance it gets, it's gonna blow torch like nobody's business..

[Niko]

One thing's for sure in this warm globe era. Any chance it gets, it's gonna blow torch like nobody's business..

Its really insane though. The front is expected to roll on thru by 5am and temps are then expected to drop in the mid to upper 30s, (north zones but lower 40s in the Metro Detroit area), but until then, 50s will dominate most of the nite here in the end of Dec.

[Niko]

Waiting to see how January will do w the cold air. There is some very cold air just waiting in the wings to arrive. Just hope it does not stay up in Canada like it has so far this season. Models are starting to see a change for the timeframe  January 7th and later. Fingers crossed! Hopefully, the pattern locks in by then.

[jaster220]

Waiting to see how January will do w the cold air. There is some very cold air just waiting in the wings to arrive. Just hope it does not stay up in Canada like it has so far this season. Models are starting to see a change for the timeframe  January 7th and later. Fingers crossed! Hopefully, the pattern locks in by then.

 

Somebody was mentioning the cold hitting then. Also I think they were asking about a storm correlation to the LRC of a system in Nov that I don't really recall. Would be nice if a BD came thru with the perfect timing to usher in the arctic air. 

[Niko]

Somebody was mentioning the cold hitting then. Also I think they were asking about a storm correlation to the LRC of a system in Nov that I don't really recall. Would be nice if a BD came thru with the perfect timing to usher in the arctic air. 

Indeed...and I think we deserve it after another snowless December (mind you 2nd year in a row).

[jaster220]

Whereas GRR's AFD comments were clearly from a warmista, the opposite can clearly be seen in this APX snippet. NMI Peeps like their winter, otherwise THEY MOVE!  

 

.UPDATE...

Issued at 957 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2019

1005mb low pressure is well north of Superior, with a trailing
occluded front down to a triple point near Manitoulin Isl, and
then a cold front pushing into ne lower MI. The spring-like
airmass that some enjoyed is getting ushered off to the east,
replaced by something that is cooler, though still warmer than
climo.

[snowstorm83]

To no ones surprise, GFS in the 8-16 day range is back to looking like crap.

[Madtown]

[GDR]

Looks like the 12th is a timeframe for cooler weather now

[jaster220]

@ 3 GFS posts

 

Anyone remember how the winter of 11-12 was going to be the worst ever?? Kinda like bragging that the Titanic was unsinkable..

[Niko]

Attm, 46F under cloudy skies.

[westMJim]

It being  a very mild end to December 2019 and for the first time that I can recall there are Dandelions in bloom this late into December. I also have some of my spring flowers popping up not sure how far they will get over the next couple of days we shall see. Over the last week Grand Rapids has seen some very warm temperatures. Christmas 2019 was the 3rd warmest on record at Grand Rapids 55° and Lansing 57° and the 2nd warmest at Muskegon 50° Then on the 26th new record highs were set at Grand Rapids 61° and Lansing 59° and at Muskegon it was the 2nd warmest December 26th with a high of 54°

[Niko]

Looks like another mini warm-up for early January for mby w temps in the mid to upper 40s. Afterwards it cools off , but back to near seasonable norms. The 20s that were forecasted for highs are gone and replaced by 30s.

[Niko]

NOAA:

Large powerful trough over the southwest U.S. will lift into the
Central Plains spinning up surface low pressure that will lift into
the upper Midwest Sunday. This will draw up a warm moist plume of
air from the Gulf of Mexico into the area mainly after midnight
producing rain that will continue through Sunday. K indices over 30
and showalter values slightly negative also lead to the chance for
thunder Sunday and Sunday night with highs well into the 50s to even
60 across the south. As the system continues to wrap up and
occlude, surface cold front will sweep through late Sunday
night/Monday morning with diminishing shower coverage after for
Monday. Highs will still remain mild Monday in the 40s.
Reenforcement of cold air advection combine with wrap around
moisture as the stack low wobbles around the northern Great lakes
will bring an increase in snow shower activity Monday night and
especially Tuesday.

The whole system should move off to the east by New Years Day
leading to dry but still above normal temperatures for the rest of
the week. 

[westMJim]

@ 3 GFS posts

 

Anyone remember how the winter of 11-12 was going to be the worst ever?? Kinda like bragging that the Titanic was unsinkable..

Going back to 1950 the winters with the least amount of seasonal snow fall at Grand Rapids, MI are 1. 1982/83 35.9" 2. 1952/53 39.7" 3. 1986/87 47.6" 4. 1979/80 48.5" then 5. 2011/12 51.2" in even more recent times the winter of 2016/17 just 60.1" fell. So far this season 15.2"

[jaster220]

NOAA:

Large powerful trough over the southwest U.S. will lift into the

Central Plains spinning up surface low pressure that will lift into

the upper Midwest Sunday. This will draw up a warm moist plume of

air from the Gulf of Mexico into the area mainly after midnight

producing rain that will continue through Sunday. K indices over 30

and showalter values slightly negative also lead to the chance for

thunder Sunday and Sunday night with highs well into the 50s to even

60 across the south. As the system continues to wrap up and

occlude, surface cold front will sweep through late Sunday

night/Monday morning with diminishing shower coverage after for

Monday. Highs will still remain mild Monday in the 40s.

Reenforcement of cold air advection combine with wrap around

moisture as the stack low wobbles around the northern Great lakes

will bring an increase in snow shower activity Monday night and

especially Tuesday.

 

The whole system should move off to the east by New Years Day

leading to dry but still above normal temperatures for the rest of

the week. 

 

/\ horrible bud. Meanwhile my office is somewhat positive today:

 

.SYNOPSIS...

Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2019

 

- Quiet weather period from Today through Saturday

 

- Rainy period from Saturday night into Sunday night

 

- Return to winter Monday through Wednesday

[Andie]

Another 70* day.

Sunday brings rain however and we need it.

[jaster220]

Would love to snag another day of sub-40F highs. Stuck at 37F here for quite some time under the overcast. If we can make it past 3:30 I think we have a shot regardless of whether the cloud deck starts to break-up or not. 

 

Edit: Been 37F since 8 am

[Hawkeye]

Early January system is back on the Euro again.

 

[Hawkeye]

Euro has another snow system right behind the above one.

 

[Hawkeye]

At the end of the latest op Euro run, it has flipped from ridge over the west yesterday to a trough today.  It also has general cold air sagging south across the northern US at day 10, which could be good when western energy ejects eastward.  Let's hope this more favorable pattern sticks in future runs.

[indianajohn]

Well on the positive side Lake Effect machine is still in affect as we head into January for you guys..lake really has cooled down much..

Looks like another mini warm-up for early January for mby w temps in the mid to upper 40s. Afterwards it cools off , but back to near seasonable norms. The 20s that were forecasted for highs are gone and replaced by 30s.

[jaster220]

From OHWx (no longer in the OHV, lost to the EC, but he drops by now and again)

 

Like our Tom, he's pro-winter and is not a warmista. His break-down helps explain why the cold is not flooding the CONUS as we thought it would.

 

 

I suppose I can add some thoughts...I'm not extremely optimistic for the Midwest for the next few weeks, unfortunately.  I guess I'm not optimistic for the East Coast either, it's just a crappy pattern.

The polar vortex settling over Alaska this week is offsetting a couple of other mechanisms that would otherwise try to give us an EPO-induced cold shot to start January.  Convection has flared up over the Pacific the last several days, which the MJO plots are picking up on, and there will be a brief East Asian Mountain Torque next week.  Both mechanisms often pump a ridge into AK, but the polar vortex being parked there is stopping that...so instead of getting a legitimate cold shot, we get that glancing blow a few days into January.

Beyond that, tropical forcing and the stratosphere favor an expansive Southeast Ridge flaring up during the middle third of January.  This will probably bring another week to two weeks of mild weather to most of the sub-forum (places like MN and northern WI/MI possible exceptions).  I think that tropical forcing works back towards the western and central Pacific for late January and that the stratospheric PV is a little weaker by then.  The tropospheric PV should also be out of Alaska by then.  Basically, I think we try to amp a ridge into Alaska and western Canada again in late January and that things are much better aligned for it to actually work out and deliver cold late January into early February. 

In terms of snow potential, it's definitely eh for the next few weeks.  There will briefly be a decent W-E temperature gradient from next weekend through the 10th or so of January that could bring some risk for snow...particularly between the 8th-12th on the front end of any shortwaves ejecting out of the west (and bringing an eventual warm-up).  The period doesn't excite me that much and the farther north, the better, but I suppose that's probably the next set of things to watch. 

As unexciting as this all is, there is still plenty of winter left starting in late-January, despite some recent calls on Twitter to punt the rest of the season because the pattern is turning poor for a few weeks.

[jaster220]

Euro has another snow system right behind the above one.

 

 

There's our slider! 

[Niko]

/\ horrible bud. Meanwhile my office is somewhat positive today:

I'll bet on GRR this time!

[Niko]

Well on the positive side Lake Effect machine is still in affect as we head into January for you guys..lake really has cooled down much..

Jaster is on a better step than I am in regards to LES. I need a north wind and typically, that is a little too hard to accomplish here but it does happen on occasion, but not as often as Jasters area where his wind direction needed for LES occurs more frequently.

[Niko]

There's our slider! 

I'll take it. (3-6" for my area)

[Niko]

NOAA:

Not to be lost in the shuffle is another round of near record warmth
that builds into the central Great Lakes as the storm system takes a
track to our west Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures are expected
to reach the mid and upper 50s again across the region. A few 60s
are within reach although the widespread coverage of rain likely
holds Detroit below the December 29th record of 65 set in 1889.

[Clinton]

12z EC continues to show a storm around the 8th of Jan and today the Euro has trended colder.  Please let us keep the cold air!  The Nov 21st version produced well.

[jaster220]

Go EC go! Lovin the look 

[Clinton]

Go EC go! Lovin the look 

Me too, but the AO is projected to go high positive next week and has me a little worried.

[Niko]

Me too, but the AO is projected to go high positive next week and has me a little worried.

Me too. I'll take neutral, not positive.

[Niko]

The Jan 2-3rd storm not too promising (for mby). Too warm.