December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[Niko]

NOAA:

Saturday will start off with some sunshine before clouds increase
ahead of the next system that will deepen over the Central Plains.
Mild southeast flow will keep highs well above average again with 50
south to low 40s north. A strong large trough moving into the
southwest U.S. will lift through the central U.S. while closing off.
This will drive a surge of warm and moist air into the area with the
main shield of rain to move through Saturday night with the warm
front. Moist mild air will keep lows upper 30s to low 40s.

Sunday, the the large powerful system will begin to occlude as it
lifts into southern Wisconsin. This will drive a dry slot across the
area leading to very mild temperatures well into the 50s with
possible 60 degrees near the Ohio border along with numerous
showers.

As the system becomes stacked it will wobble around the
northern Great lakes through Tuesday bringing colder air and the
chance for rain showers mixing and changing to snow showers during
the day and continuing into Tuesday.

[bud2380]

This is guaranteed to hit, because I'm leaving for Colorado on the night of the 2nd.  

 

 

Euro continues to show a system a week out.

 

[Niko]

How about this.....from the 18zGFS

 

Would anyone travel to Cape Cod on the EC to experience this....wow!!!!

[Grizzcoat]

Clinton, how does the EPS look in Week 2?  Is it showing the cold coming around Jan 4th/5th??  I think the pattern post the early Jan storm is going to feature a dominant N stream with volatile periods of transitioning cold in between storm systems.  This is the part of the LRC which produced a NW Flow regime for about a couple weeks.

Yes- good shot of Arctic air (especially this year) around the 4th and 5th. It shows it arriving with a rather strong clipper type storm.  Then it does look volatile though no big systems are shown but it does look like something could easily pop.

[jaster220]

Written a week ago. Need more sustained cold to have any chance S of LAT 43-- from a classic cutter 150 miles NW of the LOW for heaviest snowfall -  minus wrap around BS.

 

Congrats on the nice call from a week out.    (so sad that you were correct tho  )

[jaster220]

Yes- good shot of Arctic air (especially this year) around the 4th and 5th. It shows it arriving with a rather strong clipper type storm.  Then it does look volatile though no big systems are shown but it does look like something could easily pop.

 

Keep up the positive vibes buddy! Things don't tend to pop in a NW flow, at least not major things. Nonetheless, with some colder air we have a better shot at seeing flakes flying. As for this season, I'm really thinking your original intuition is going to verify:

 

pre-mature snow in autumn = dud winter. 

[Niko]

Attm, 47F under mostly cloudy skies. Feels great out there.

[james1976]

GFS still has a sheared out mess for the Jan 2nd-3rd system. Hoping the Euro is on to something.

[Niko]

https://weatherstreet.com/weather-forecast/michigan-snow-cover.htm

[jaster220]

GFS still has a sheared out mess for the Jan 2nd-3rd system. Hoping the Euro is on to something.

 

I noticed that all the models that spin-up a secondary around the Lakes have done away with any storm in that timeframe. Seems it'll be one or the other, not both fwiw.

[BrianJK]

might make a run at 60 next week. Very mild air takes hold.

 

 

As usual, Skilling and his team over hype the warm up in the forecast.  I don't see us getting close to 60F next Monday...maybe low 50's which will feel balmy after this cold spell.  Forgot what it feels like to wake up in the 10's that past couple nights....Brrr...short-lived cold spell though, Winter is going on a hiatus for the time being.

 

Tom buddy, you are an awesome contributor and provide a ton of insight and a wealth of information.  But I think tunnel vision and a biased towards cold/snow may be holding you back.  It seems at times you are too quick to dismiss the signals that go against cold/snow, and other times over stretch to find signals or reasoning to support cold/snow.  I think if you can overcome that, you could rise to a whole new level.  Regardless, you are still top notch and I have learned a ton from you over the years - so thank you for that.

[Stacsh]

I have recorded 60° Woah

[jaster220]

I have recorded 60° Woah

 

 

There's always the d15 big dog..

 

[Tom]

Tom buddy, you are an awesome contributor and provide a ton of insight and a wealth of information.  But I think tunnel vision and a biased towards cold/snow may be holding you back.  It seems at times you are too quick to dismiss the signals that go against cold/snow, and other times over stretch to find signals or reasoning to support cold/snow.  I think if you can overcome that, you could rise to a whole new level.  Regardless, you are still top notch and I have learned a ton from you over the years - so thank you for that.

I appreciate the constructive criticism Brian.  Believe me, I take it with the utmost respect.  As for Skilling calling for 60's, that comment was for this past Monday which obviously didn't happen.  In terms of the prolong warmth, that's a whole other story and I began seeing the bust right around the Solstice period when the models started flashing the torch.  In all honesty, I did not see it coming one bit.  I learned a lesson on this one, a big one, and I leaned to much on the GEFS Strat forecast which completely failed on the major warming event early in the month.  The PV strengthened back up and the rest is history....Big Bust on the second half rally I expected on seeing transpire.

[westMJim]

It is now up to 60 here at my house and sunny. It looks more like late March or early April then late December. 

[Niko]

Was just out doing some errands and it feels so nice. Temp at 48F. Heading into the 50s.

[SE Wisconsin]

There's always the d15 big dog..

 

20191226 12z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_h384.png

It's on the day 15 GFS so it's a done deal!  I wish!  At least it's pointing to a glimmer of hope on the long range.  I guess that's about all we can hope for at this point.

[Niko]

Haven’t been below 32 here in quite some time and don’t expect to be anytime soon.

This kinda reminds me of the Winter 2012. I know we still got more to go and it might turn around, but it has same similarities.

[Niko]

18z icon

Nice rainstorm for my area.

[Grizzcoat]

There's always the d15 big dog..

 

20191226 12z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_h384.png

the hard eight dice roll for this in craps would be like 8 in row. Hit the Craps hard with "hard eights" -- try for one in a row- system above is NOT happening.

[Hawkeye]

The early January system is crappier on the new Euro run.  It's a rain system that shears out as it heads into the northeast US.

[Niko]

The early January system is crappier on the new Euro run.  It's a rain system that shears out as it heads into the northeast US.

Exactly! Half of January looks wasted already. Geez, I hope that changes.

[westMJim]

This kinda reminds me of the Winter 2012. I know we still got more to go and it might turn around, but it has same similarities.

I was thinking more like 1982/83 or 1933/34 

[Niko]

Attm, a balmy 54F under mostly to partly cloudy skies.

[westMJim]

It is now officially reached 60 at GRR. Here at my house I am now at 63 and the sun is out. I went for a walk and there are dandelions out in bloom. In my yard there is a crocus while not in bloom one is popping out of the ground. I will keep a eye on it as if it blooms I will post in on Saturday. Also I seen a couple of flies out on my walk. This is one warm end to this December.

[Niko]

I was thinking more like 1982/83 or 1933/34 

Yep...I can barely remember 82, but I can recall being a truly warm Christmas back in the big Apple. If I am not mistaken, it was in the 70s on Christmas Day that year.

[Tony]

Just in regards to my back yard, not looking to get any measurable snow will most likely place this month onto the list of snowless December's top 5 at least. First 10-15 days of January not looking good either except if you like looking at long range that usually does not come to fruition. I am grateful for this warm weather as cold and no snow is worthless in my opinion.

[Grizzcoat]

if the rainfall happens- DEC 2015 looks like a near repeat. ( here in DSM) + 10F for temps?  Who would have thunk? ) just a few weeks ago)  All this talk of a cold/snowy DEC I digress. Models mean nothing- teleconnections mean everything and the MJO-AO in in both these "blowtorch" years mean everything. Nothing against people like Tom and Clinton (and the likes of JB) but PP has done better in these patterens over the years-- just sayin/

[Tom]

if the rainfall happens- DEC 2015 looks like a near repeat. ( here in DSM) + 10F for temps? Who would have thunk? ) just a few weeks ago) All this talk of a cold/snowy DEC I digress. Models mean nothing- teleconnections mean everything and the MJO-AO in in both these "blowtorch" years mean everything. Nothing against people like Tom and Clinton (and the likes of JB) but PP has done better in these patterens over the years-- just sayin/

I certainly agree with you. We rely on the models way to much to analyze and digest information. The decline in the +IOD really has thrown a wrench in the LR forecast resulting in unfavorable MJO phases. That’s prob one of the biggest busts in the seasonal models TBH. It’s effects are crucial globally and part of the reason why this month failed to bring the cold.

[MIKEKC]

Hope everyone had a nice Christmas.

 

Yep, Tom, this was a strikeout for December, but you are 2-3 since late August on long range forecasts. A few big home runs. You were the first to call for a cold fall for most. You were also the first to call for early snows, boy, were they early as KC had two snows in Oct.

 

So, 2-3 with two big home runs, I’ll take that when it comes to weather forecasting.

 

December sucked for most, no doubt, but it sucked last year too and then mid Jan. to mid March came and we had a winter party. So, let’s hope that will come again.

 

GFS hinting at a much colder pattern possibly around Jan. 7th time frame. Let’s see what the trends hold as we close out 2019. I’m sure Tom will keep us posted on any trends towards a wintry pattern.

 

Good luck to all the snow lovers with this weekend’s storm. Here in KC, looks wet and mild with this storm. We could use the moisture.

[Andie]

70* and Overcast.

 

Possible light rain tomorrow, but Saturday will bring showers and some thunderstorms.

Monday we'll finally see the mid 50's.

 

So,....where's Winter?

[Hawkeye]

I'll likely end December with 1.9" of snow.  Last year I received 0.7" of snow in December.  The big flip began on January 12th (4.8" that day, then another 4" a few days later and another 4" a few days later).  Current models don't see that far out.  I'm pretty sure models back in early January sniffed out the upcoming snowy pattern well before it began.

[Niko]

Just came back from the gym and man it feels like Spring out there. No kiddin People were out jogging, walking, biking and etc.....

 

Btw, Detroit broke the record high today of 58F. Old record was 57F set back in 2016.

[Niko]

70* and Overcast.

 

Possible light rain tomorrow, but Saturday will bring showers and some thunderstorms.

Monday we'll finally see the mid 50's.

 

So,....where's Winter?

Who knows. Decided to go on a hiatus.

 

Tbh, I am actually enjoying this weather. Eventually the snow and cold will come.

[Niko]

Lows tanite will be in the mid 40s. Keep in mind, the normal high is 33F. So, you can see how wicked this pattern is.

[jaster220]

At Niko

 

Yep, more motorcycles out today than you see in late March. Had an ant crawling at face level on my garage door frame. Didn't see too many winged bugs (which I'm fine with), but it wouldn't surprise me to find tulips popping in my garden like Jan of '12 either. 

 

This map really shows the bi-polar-coaster temp regime we seem to be stuck with during this warm globe/low solar era.

 

Sharp contrasts anyone?

 

[jaster220]

I'll likely end December with 1.9" of snow.  Last year I received 0.7" of snow in December.  The big flip began on January 12th (4.8" that day, then another 4" a few days later and another 4" a few days later).  Current models don't see that far out.  I'm pretty sure models back in early January sniffed out the upcoming snowy pattern well before it began.

 

Seems the models, like wayward teens, are always sniffing something!   Mostly the LR models seem exceptionally vulnerable to showing massive amounts of snow that never comes to fruition. Remember the LR CFS that had monster snows right thru the heart of our Sub? 

 

Example of a Euro map for Jan 9th that never happened. 

 

[jaster220]

  Despite this holiday week torching, I'm actually happy I got what I did in December. Huge improvement over last year, and the recent snow actually stuck around nicely and made the run-up to Christmas much more festive. 

[jaster220]

I have recorded 60° Woah

 

KRMY touched 60F later on too. Alright, can we get back to winter now? Even my daughter (who likes it warm) commented how "just not right" these past 2 days have been. 

[Niko]

At Niko

 

Yep, more motorcycles out today than you see in late March. Had an ant crawling at face level on my garage door frame. Didn't see too many winged bugs (which I'm fine with), but it wouldn't surprise me to find tulips popping in my garden like Jan of '12 either. 

 

This map really shows the bi-polar-coaster temp regime we seem to be stuck with during this warm globe/low solar era.

 

Sharp contrasts anyone?

 

20191226 US Temps.GIF

Crazy stuff man, I tell ya!