December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[GDR]

How much rain are we looking at?

[Clinton]

LOL @ #8

That would be to good to be true for both of us lol.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS mean

 

 

That would be good for me and a few others on here. Not good for many others on here.

[jaster220]

I've seen some dramatic flips/comebacks in my time: '84-85, '93-94, '06-07, etc. They DO happen so there's no sense in presuming we can know the future and how this all plays out. Maybe this will be another season when the "flip to cold" is for real. 

[jaster220]

  Do I see my next clipper event looming out there??

 

[jaster220]

I can see it now. I'll be sitting here in mid-April dreaming about lunch hour conditions like this!

 

[CentralNebWeather]

I will be anxiously watching the 12z Euro to see if it looks anything like the GFS or Canadian

[jaster220]

I will be anxiously watching the 12z Euro to see if it looks anything like the GFS or Canadian

 

It could look like the ICON and I'd be stoked, lol. One thing the models seem to be touting is the potential for some back side precip for SWMI. 

 

[Clinton]

That would be good for me and a few others on here. Not good for many others on here.

Somebody needs to get something!

[Clinton]

I will be anxiously watching the 12z Euro to see if it looks anything like the GFS or Canadian

Did you get much on Veterans Day?

[CentralNebWeather]

Did you get much on Veterans Day?

2.2”

[Clinton]

2.2”

Looks to be stronger this time but warmer.

[CentralNebWeather]

My local meteorologist Twitter take.

 

https://twitter.com/ntvstimreith/status/1209176902805729282?s=21

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro looks farther south, still lacking cold air. Snow now Western Kansas, panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma through 138 hours.

[Hawkeye]

It appears the fairly thick cirrus overspreading the region is holding the surface temp down today.  Today was always going to be a "depends how well we mix" day, and we're obviously not mixing well at all.

[Hawkeye]

All the action is stuck down south with the series of upper lows.

[snowstorm83]

Not a good sign that cold air appears to be taking hold on Alaska. It looks similar to 2011-12. If Fairbanks is -50, that probably means we're torching. 

[St Paul Storm]

At least the Euro tried to pop something. Brings 2” here at 10:1. It’s no phaser like my BFF GFS though.

[CentralNebWeather]

Not a good sign that cold air appears to be taking hold on Alaska. It looks similar to 2011-12. If Fairbanks is -50, that probably means we're torching.

I just looked at Fairbanks. They will have a stretch of days that the high temperature is -34 to -38 and lows are -41 to maybe -50. When it is frigid there we are going to be warm here.

[Clinton]

12z EPS mean

[james1976]

That looks pretty close to GFS snow placement unless I'm missing something

[bud2380]

Euro on Saturday. Pretty weak, but does show something at least.  

 

[james1976]

Euro on Saturday. Pretty weak, but does show something at least.

 

What's accumulations looking like on the Euro op?

[Andie]

A 69* and Sunny Christmas on the way.

 

It's a poolside margarita Christmas, I guess.

[Clinton]

What's accumulations looking like on the Euro op?

[james1976]

Geez what a mess

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings afternoon disco: as confused as we are with the models.

 

“The next weather system will begin to impact the area late Friday

into Saturday. I had hoped that models would show better

agreement on this system, but unfortunately considerable

uncertainty still exists. The ECMWF is still a bit slower and

farther south than GFS. This would also be a "mostly-rain"

solution for the local area. That being said, there are still

several members in the ECMWF ensemble that are more similar to the

GFS in producing a swath of snow on Saturday and Saturday night.

This is definitely the time period to keep an eye on, especially

for any holiday travel plans.”

[jaster220]

Not a good sign that cold air appears to be taking hold on Alaska. It looks similar to 2011-12. If Fairbanks is -50, that probably means we're torching. 

 

I just looked at Fairbanks. They will have a stretch of days that the high temperature is -34 to -38 and lows are -41 to maybe -50. When it is frigid there we are going to be warm here.

 

Had an identical thought earlier wrt "going 11-12" on us. Hope I'm wrong in the end. 

[Niko]

At 52F after hitting 58F for a high temp. Beautiful. Sunshine from start to finish. Was out all day w friends and totally enjoyed it. I saw one guy mowing the fricken lawn and some other dude watering down his driveway. Unreal.

[Niko]

Cools off a bit tanite w lows in the 20s, which is still a tad above the norm. Highs tomorrow will be in the 30s. Warm-up returns  quickly w possibly another 50F by the weekend.

 

Btw: Christmas Day....fricken 50F w partly cloudy skies. Geez!

[Niko]

This month is gone. Down the drain. January is not looking all that much better in terms of storminess, especially for my area. The cold air has now modified some next week as well.  We will see how it goes, but for now, unless we see sudden changes, it is looking very boring.

 

Hosting a Christmas party tanite. Have a ton of guests coming, so gotta go get ready. Will jump in here from time to time this evening.

[Niko]

I know, I know, always an optimist with his outlooks and/or cold bias but..

 

20191223 JB Tweet-1.PNG

20191223 JB Tweet-2.PNG

Hes a comedian, but knows his stuff. The funny thing is that a part of me likes him. Not sure why.

[St Paul Storm]

GFS gonna continue insisting on a full blown phase.

[westMJim]

Christmas dandelion! Out in my front yard there is a dandelion in bloom. While I have seen them is late November and even in early December I do not recall seeing one in bloom in late December.

[james1976]

GFS gonna continue insisting on a full blown phase.

Until bout Thursday lol

[OmahaSnowFan]

My highs have been raised pretty drastically now for Tuesday and Wednesday to at or above 50. If we hit 50 each day that will be 5 days in a row over 50 degrees.

[Grizzcoat]

Sometimes I wonder why they write an AFD on a possible storm. The banality gets old-

DMX-

A large western US trough will continue to push the upper level
ridge off to the east through the end of the week with temperatures
gradually cooling. This period should remain fairly dry before the
next system potentially impacting the area over the weekend. Right
now there is significant variability between models as they struggle
to handle a large cut-off low over southern California and a second
large system moving through the northern stream. Suffice to say that
we can expect to see rain or snow over the weekend, however the
scope and details will be difficult to determine until models
reach better agreement. Once this system comes ashore Thursday and
Friday suspect solutions to come into better agreement with
better data availability.

[snowstorm83]

GFS has 1.85" of QPF at LNK for the weekend system. Euro: 0.60". 

[jaster220]

0z GFS looking to be back north..sigh. 

 

Last year at New Years, NMI got a nice hit. Wouldn't surprise me if they see deja-vu

 

20181231 APX Snow amts.png

 

LOL..Euro's listening

 

[jaster220]

GFS has 1.85" of QPF at LNK for the weekend system. Euro: 0.60". 

 

Way over-amped. Just like it was with last week's system at these same ranges. Those here in the Lwr Lakes got seriously trolled by it. Your turn, next..