December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

Lincoln Meteorologist Twitter.

 

https://twitter.com/kensiemek/status/1209283064943271936?s=21

[St Paul Storm]

Until bout Thursday lol

You’re too generous. I was going to say until tomorrow.

[jaster220]

You’re too generous. I was going to say until tomorrow.

 

No. That's the thing. It doesn't catch on until 36 hrs out. That's the horrible thing. I wouldn't mind if it honed in at say d5 or d4. 

[St Paul Storm]

No. That's the thing. It doesn't catch on until 36 hrs out. That's the horrible thing. I wouldn't mind if it honed in at say d5 or d4. 

Lol....yeah it’s basically a 36 hour global. I wouldn’t mind at all if it was right this time, but I can’t wait for it to crash and burn.

[Grizzcoat]

FWIW- ICON Is significantly  S of it's previous runs

[CentralNebWeather]

I would love to experience Fairbanks for a week during a cold snap like they’re going to have, my wife thinks I’m crazy. On December 31st, the forecasted high is -50 and the low is -53.

[CentralNebWeather]

ICON is way south, doesn’t even bring moisture past I 70 in Kansas or Missouri. Warm also, hardly any snow. Euro was on this earlier today. If GFS and Canadian are south, we’ll probably kiss this one goodbye. Not looking good for winter weather in the extended either.

[GDR]

If you like grilling, you’ll love the extended!!

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS is pretty dynamic across Nebraska. Though how much stock can you put into it?

[jlp]

The Euro has this all day. ICON further south, GFS further north. Comical

[bud2380]

[bud2380]

Well, at least the GFS has been consistent and insistent on this storm happening.  Track has settled in decently today since the 12z run as well.  It's just sad how wrong it's going to end up being.  

[GDR]

Gfs is smoking crack!!

[Hawkeye]

Canadian still no phase, well south.

 

The GFS is trying to dig the northern stream energy southward well to the west of the other models, which is why it leads to a phased cutter.  The other models show the northern stream energy passing harmlessly well north and east of the southern energy.

[Grizzcoat]

UKIE looks nothing like the GFS- more similar to the CMC and iCON.

[Madtown]

[Hawkeye]

The 00z Euro just took a big step toward the GFS.  This run digs the northern energy much farther west.   

[clintbeed1993]

Yep, the King is caving.  Now watch the GFS crap it out

[clintbeed1993]

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2144-december-28th29th-potential-plainsgreat-lakes-cutter/ 

 

Fired up a storm thread for this even though our confidence in this being a major snow maker is still pretty low.  Models are showing it consistently enough to warrant a thread imho.  Marginal cold air is going to be a major issue for most of us it appears.

[Tom]

It's a very foggy Christmas Eve this morning as visibility has dropped to less than a 1/4 mi.  Both ORD/MDW have ground stops due to the foggy conditions.

[westMJim]

There is a dandelion in bloom in yard this is the first time that I have seen one bloom this late in the season and no it is now on the south side of a building.  This December will go into the record books as warmer then average will much less snow than average as at this time the mean at Grand Rapids is 30.8° and that is +0.6° there has been only 8.4” of snow 15.6” is average as of this date. At Muskegon the mean is at 31.4° while this is just a departure of +0.1° there has only been 6.3” of snow fall and that is well below the average of 19.9” and at Lansing the mean there is at 30.7 that is a departure of +1.3 and just 2.9” of snow fall there. Earlier on I had a guess of between 65 and 75” of snow fall for this winter at the time I thought that was a good guess will that may be too high and maybe way too high.

At this time it is 31 here with a lot of frost but no fog.

[Tom]

After studying the various model solutions in the LR, the models are certainly having a devil of a time struggling what to do with the EPO as we head into January.  The CFSv2 is the most bullish firing up the NE PAC ridge heading into Week 2 along with signs the GEFS are also hinting at that scenario as well.

 

 

 

 

 

Now, the question is, are they right or is the EPS going to lead the way with a continuation of a + EPO???  I'm struggling to believe the EPS at this time for a couple of reasons and maybe these LR tools I've used before will provide some insight.  Here's what I'm thinking at the moment....

 

Take a look at what is about to happen in East Asia/Siberia near the Sea of Okhotsk from about Day 4-10 as it replaces the trough which has been spinning there for days, with higher heights and ridging.  This often correlates to a response in the weather pattern across W/NW NAMER in the Day 6-8 range.  If that should work out, I would expect the models to start showing more ridging across western Canada/NW NAMER beginning around the Jan 4th/5th period.

 

Lastly, the 30mb Strat warming has begun to explode right where the NW NAMER ridge may begin to grow during the 1st week of January.  In the animation below, right about Dec 17th/18th, the warm pool is exploding and this is a good clue that we may in fact be seeing the modeling showing more ridging in this region.  There is normally about a 3-week lag period when using this method.

 

So, in essence, I'm seeing several LR tools lining up in a similar fashion towards the beginning of the New Year.  Will they end up right or not is the question we'll see being answered over the next few days.  IMO, there is a lot of potential for the pattern to really snap and unload the brutal cold being bottled up across North America right now.

 

 

 

[SE Wisconsin]

It seems as though the cold is coming.  Unfortunately, it looks like any meaningful snow will be limited to far northern MN, WI and MI.  Just rain and pixie dust at best for most of us.

[SE Wisconsin]

BTW, instead of grumbling about the weather, I want to wish everyone on this forum and very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.  Safe travels and may you all enjoy the holiday festivities with friends and family.

[jaster220]

BTW, instead of grumbling about the weather, I want to wish everyone on this forum and very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.  Safe travels and may you all enjoy the holiday festivities with friends and family.

 

Same to you for the holiday greetings! I'm still stepping out to snow on my property, and I consider that a major win in this hostile holiday heatwave. 

[Niko]

Major frost out there. For a min, I thought it had snowed. Temp at 25F. Ice fog around as well, but slowly dissipating.

[Niko]

Btw: January roars in w 40s and a nice rainmaker as well. No cold air, just back to average, maybe even slightly above average (for mby).

[KCSmokey]

Amazing Christmas Eve Sunrise this morning in Kansas City.  Merry Christmas!

 

[jaster220]

Major frost out there. For a min, I thought it had snowed. Temp at 25F. Ice fog around as well, but slowly dissipating.

 

33F attm, but I see we did plummet from a high of 53F down to a brief 26F a bit after midnight. Then the fog/clouds? saw temps rising slowly all night. 

[jaster220]

At Clinton

 

Do the paid/premium Euro data go out beyond d10? Curious what becomes of this??

 

[Hawkeye]

Do the paid/premium Euro data go out beyond d10?

 

Nope.  The op Euro is only 10 days.  EPS is 15.

[Clinton]

At Clinton

 

Do the paid/premium Euro data go out beyond d10? Curious what becomes of this??

 

20191024 0z Euro_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_h240.png

Just the 12z and 00z EC go out 15 days on my site.

[CentralNebWeather]

US snow cover as of December 24th.

 

https://twitter.com/nws/status/1209517396702068738?s=21

[Hawkeye]

The surface temp here underperformed yesterday, but today we're back on track... several degrees higher at 11am.

[Niko]

US snow cover as of December 24th.

 

https://twitter.com/nws/status/1209517396702068738?s=21

Pathetic

[Niko]

33F attm, but I see we did plummet from a high of 53F down to a brief 26F a bit after midnight. Then the fog/clouds? saw temps rising slowly all night. 

Yep..temps dropped last nite thanks to a dry, weak CF that rolled on through.

[Niko]

Attm, 34F under cloudy skies.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Our NWS says tomorrow's forecast high on Christmas would be the 2nd warmest in the last 60 years.

[Niko]

This is what I found during my quick research. The warmest Detroit has eva experienced was 64F back in 1982 on Christmas Day. A year later, it was -10F on C.D.

[Hawkeye]

Euro mostly caved last night, finished the cave this morning.