ShawniganLake Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Is your body ready for the doom the druncle is about to bestow upon us?Looks like it’s going to dig the January 2nd-3rd trough even more offshore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 At least Friday is looking dry now. Maybe a good day to take the lights down. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Looks like it’s going to dig the January 2nd-3rd trough even more offshore. Yep. Our best mountain snow may be on New Year's. Then a brief torch which is a fitting way to begin the new year. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 The 12z EPS has the lowest PNA forecast yet dropping a bit below -3 in combination with a slightly -EPO. Numbers like that are going to deliver. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 The 12z EPS has the lowest PNA forecast yet dropping a bit below -3 in combination with a slightly -EPO. Numbers like that are going to deliver. The models sadly don't look to be showing much action. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 The 18z GFS continues to push up a ridge over us days 5 and 6 instead of simply crushing the ridge while it's just off the coast. It's obvious this is where the GFS and Euro end up going such different ways. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 The models sadly don't look to be showing much action. Trust me. Numbers like that will deliver if they actually happen. Teleconnection forecasts have proven useful with these events before. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 The trough next weekend is a bit colder on the 18z, just delayed from previous runs, but it gets here with sub 522 thickness dropping south of Eugene by Sunday morning. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 If the pattern plays out like the GFS has been depicting for next weekend then the 18z is definitely a step in the right direction. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 This will be better than '20-'21, in fact there are '22-'23 vibes. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 24 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 If the pattern plays out like the GFS has been depicting for next weekend then the 18z is definitely a step in the right direction. It actually does get decently cold next weekend with sub 522 thickness over SEA. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 It actually does get decently cold next weekend with sub 522 thickness over SEA. Also shows a strong SW wind all weekend. Not going to be too interesting in the lowlands... but great for the mountains. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Also shows a strong SW wind all weekend. Not going to be too interesting in the lowlands... but great for the mountains. The colder weather at the surface will probably be early next week when the surface high pressure builds in right after that cold trough. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 The trough is faster than a jackrabbit on a date! Goes coast to coast in less than two days. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Also shows a strong SW wind all weekend. Not going to be too interesting in the lowlands... but great for the mountains.Jesus. Contradiction is your friend. Let someone feel good for more than five minutes. You’re getting really old. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 The cold that Alaska has been having over these last couple of weeks reminds me a lot of the end of January 1989. We all know what happened about 10 days after that. Very promising to have all that cold air on this side of the globe. I really like our chances for next month. 8 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 This GFS run is looking better for sure. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Jesus. Contradiction is your friend. Let someone feel good for more than five minutes. You’re getting really old. Jesus. I will post what I want. Screaming SW winds are not our friend... pretty important detail. There are literally thousands of posts on here that I could validly contradict and don't. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 The cold that Alaska has been having over these last couple of weeks reminds me a lot of the end of January 1989. We all know what happened about 10 days after that. Very promising to have all that cold air on this side of the globe. I really like our chances for next month.1989 was a pretty big outlier, in case people are thinking that’s a predictable progression. Probably a significant result of the preceding SSW. Lots of things pegged the meter for that baby and typically our remarkably cold air masses occur when things are in flux up there and we tap into some cross-polar flow. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 The cold that Alaska has been having over these last couple of weeks reminds me a lot of the end of January 1989. We all know what happened about 10 days after that. Very promising to have all that cold air on this side of the globe. I really like our chances for next month. Jan 1989 has been an analog for a while on the CPC site. I think our best January of the century so far is a pretty legit possibility. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 1989 was a pretty big outlier, in case people are thinking that’s a predictable progression. Probably a significant result of the preceding SSW. Lots of things pegged the meter for that baby and typically our remarkably cold air masses occur when things are in flux up there and we tap into some cross-polar flow. I mean a SSW is definitely still on the table as well. Bizarre pattern progression but history proves it's possible. 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 The GFS looks cool with mountain snow. Big improvement over those ridge solutions. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Much better GFS run. Big ridge in the East by day 10 or just after. GOA block looking healthy. 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 The GFS looks cool with mountain snow. Big improvement over those ridge solutions. My sights are much higher than mountain snow, but that will be one of the early benefits of the coming change. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 I mean a SSW is definitely still on the table as well. Bizarre pattern progression but history proves it's possible.Was wondering what is happening with the SSW. Last year it took a couple weeks or more for the effects to take hold if I remember correctly. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 February 1989 had some pretty cold temps, very strong winds especially Whatcom County, and lasted only about 5 days. Dec 2008 and February 2019 were much better IMO. Snow did come in March, but a separate event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 I mean a SSW is definitely still on the table as well. Bizarre pattern progression but history proves it's possible.Just about anything is possible, just pointing out it would be an unusual progression. Better bet is that cold moving out, shaking the etch a sketch and keeping things unconstipated up there. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Was wondering what is happening with the SSW. Last year it took a couple weeks or more for the effects to take hold if I remember correctly. GFS and Euro show a Siberian SSW event in about 7-8 days. 3 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 GFS and Euro show a Siberian SSW event in about 7 days. Haven't they been showing SSW signals that keep on going away? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 I think best January of the Century will be a tall order. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 As others have mentioned the Day 6-7 trough is colder. Sub 522 thickness PDX, 850s -8c. PDX-EUG light gradient -2 to -3mb. Snow level 750-500' at times. Overnight into morning hours slushy snow nearly everywhere is likely. It would be nice if that played out. After day 8-10 500mb pattern clearly better than 12z. It's close to greatness and even losing the initial Kona low still doesn't change the overall evolution with the Gulf of Alaska/Eastern Aleutian block. Good things ahead! YEAH! C'MON!!!! 00z GFS in 4 hours 37 minutes Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄ 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 GFS and Euro show a Siberian SSW event in about 7-8 days.Oh really? That would be a game changer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Ensembles rolling out. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 GFS and Euro show a Siberian SSW event in about 7-8 days.Face value how cold would it get? Historic? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 GFS and Euro show a Siberian SSW event in about 7-8 days.Looks pretty meager. Hardly puts a dent in the PV. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Oh really? That would be a game changer. Yeah...not massive but hopefully enough to shake things up. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Was our coldest temps due to an SSW event? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Looks like the operational is now going to be a cold outlier. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Face value how cold would it get? Historic?There is no "face value" with a SSW. It has to happen and then we see how it shakes out. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Looks pretty meager. Might just be all we need though. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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