Requiem Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 You can't let poor model runs or what seems like a "bust" or things are falling apart to dictate your mood, trust me, and others shouldn't either. I see that's occurring though. It is what it is. We can't control what we can't control. 00z ECMWF beginning now. Root for a miracleAbsolutely. I think last February was where I really let it control my mood— in conjunction with OCD and anxiety it didn’t do me any favors. Onto better runs! 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 I think it's a lot more upsetting to live in a warming climate the younger you are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 I think it's a lot more upsetting to live in a warming climate the younger you are. Unless you don't care about cold weather... then its a great time to be young! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 I mean, other people cheer for snow incessantly. Am I really any different from any of those posters? Sure, I’ll try to “break new ground” as you claim I should do, but I’m hardly the only person who’s guilty of this pattern. I’m not the most well-versed in weather as a whole, and have been called out in the past over faulty information. So typically I stay out of that stuff because I know there are smarter people on here. I agree that I sometimes use my posts as a way to b*tch about the weather. Guilty as charged. Most of us know just enough to armchair read the models, which you seem to know how to do, so I don't think your knowledge is any more rudimentary than the rest of us. We're all guilty of being repetitive, I think you just get a little more grief both because of your age and the woe-is-me tone to a lot of your posts. I would just encourage you to study and root for what you like and try to understand it as much as possible so that you're not repeating the same points too often. I think we've established that Portland hasn't had a lot of wind since 2017, for example. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Absolutely. I think last February was where I really let it control my mood— in conjunction with OCD and anxiety it didn’t do me any favors. Onto better runs!Ahhh, that adds a more element to it. Doesn't make it any easier. Yep Onto better runs, whether that's in January or February. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 I think it's a lot more upsetting to live in a warming climate the younger you are.We are on the edge of a cliff. About to descend into an ice age. Enjoy these warm snow free days while we have them. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Unless you don't care about cold weather... then its a great time to be young! Let's trade ages! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Most of us know just enough to armchair read the models, which you seem to know how to do, so I don't think your knowledge is any more rudimentary than the rest of us. We're all guilty of being repetitive, I think you just get a little more grief both because of your age and the woe-is-me tone to a lot of your posts. I would just encourage you to study and root for what you like and try to understand it as much as possible so that you're not repeating the same points too often. I think we've established that Portland hasn't had a lot of wind since 2017, for example.Noted with enthusiasm. I think it’s the aforementioned “weather effecting my mood” phenomenon (or rather, letting any mental health issues play out in my zeal for the weather) that leads me into that rut. I’ll try not to let it happen too often in the future. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Let's trade ages! I thought you were moving to Florida?? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Yes, you were. I don't make stuff up. It's not a big deal. Just don't make inaccurate statements like that and you won't get called out. No, I wasn’t. You are completely and utterly full of s**t. A liar. A slimy little bait worm. Get bent. 6 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 I thought you were moving to Florida?? Always can. This state has my heart though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Euro day 1 look 1000x better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Down to 45 degrees...The arctic front must be nearing Bellingham! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 GEFS finally completed. Meh. 850mb ensembles Chilly to marginally chilly onshore flow at times. That's it. No sign of cold. Can only hope tomorrows runs reverses course. Maybe it will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Noted with enthusiasm. I think it’s the aforementioned “weather effecting my mood” phenomenon (or rather, letting any mental health issues play out in my zeal for the weather) that leads me into that rut. I’ll try not to let it happen too often in the future. We definitely live in a climate where you will be on edge a lot of the time if you let the bad breaks impact your moods too much. We've all had to learn that at some point. I think studying the climate and its tendencies more helped me with keeping my expectations in check, which helps negate the emotional side to it somewhat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Euro day 1 look 1000x betterWe are golden!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Always can. This state has my heart though Such different places. You lament a warming climate... and talk of moving to a hot, humid swamp. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Lock in Day 1! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 You went +1 at SEA for December in the forecast contest. And in early December, you were absolutely talking about watching for things to turn interesting around the solstice. We both thought December would end on a lot colder note than it has. Oh well.Not for the West. Learn how to read. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Just giving you some honest advice. It doesn't add a lot to a discussion to make the same basic point over and over about us not seeing major windstorms recently. You're free to root for what you like, but I would encourage you to do a little research or break a little new ground rather than making the same despairing posts repeatedly.It never snows and colds anymore and January sucks! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 We definitely live in a climate where you will be on edge a lot of the time if you let the bad breaks impact your moods too much. We've all had to learn that at some point. I think studying the climate and its tendencies more helped me with keeping my expectations in check, which helps negate the emotional side to it somewhat. I stand by my assessment that 2016-2017 utterly spoilt me. I think that was the first year I really started paying attention to the weather all the time and that season lived up to its hype. So tempering those expectations is definitely wise! I’ll definitely try to do more reading up (and that was I can contribute more, too). Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 It never snows and colds anymore and January sucks! It does indeed. A cruel, cruel 31 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 No, I wasn’t.You are completely and utterly full of s**t. A liar. A slimy little bait worm. Get bent.Oh...my. 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 I'm not worried at all as long as that big fat GOA block is there. I've never seen one of those in the position being shown not deliver in the end. It wouldn't shock me to see the Eastern trough diminish on future runs. Even if it remains it only spells a few days delay for us.Technically the eastern trough is a result of the waveguide/dual forcing centers and it isn’t driving your weather. There was/is +AAM deposition in the tropics associated with the WWB, and it wasn’t initialized well by the modeling. And it’s a complex MJO evolution..not a single/unified Maritime MJO wave but a destructive interference regime with at least two centers of action present..one over the WPAC the other over the EHEM. Will be tough for models to handle in the clown range. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 We are golden!!So time for a shower I’d say Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 **** Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 No, I wasn’t. You are completely and utterly full of s**t. A liar. A slimy little bait worm. Get bent.You realize that this isn’t a reasonable response, right? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Oh...my.My #1 pet peeve is having words put in my mouth. I wouldn’t get this upset typically but Flatiron does this all the time. Claiming I said things that I didn’t say, rewriting history, moving goalposts, etc. It’s so d**n annoying. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 I stand by my assessment that 2016-2017 utterly spoilt me. I think that was the first year I really started paying attention to the weather all the time and that season lived up to its hype. So tempering those expectations is definitely wise! I’ll definitely try to do more reading up (and that was I can contribute more, too). No worries, like you said, we're all guilty of being repetitive. I sense that you're keen on the analytical stuff so I encourage you to keep expanding on it. The reality is that it mostly sucks being a weather weenie here. The fleeting exclamation points like 2016-17 are what draw us in, and they can serve to give us an imbalanced perspective on our climate and mostly just whet our appetites for something that rarely follows through. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiBiYoSi Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 This has to be the most schizophrenic corner on the entire internet during the winter, and I thoroughly enjoy watching it unfold year after year. Cheers y’all!! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 No worries, like you said, we're all guilty of being repetitive. I sense that you're keen on the analytical stuff so I encourage you to keep expanding on it. The reality is that it mostly sucks being a weather weenie here. The fleeting exclamation points like 2016-17 are what draw us in, and they can serve to give us an imbalanced perspective on our climate and mostly just whet our appetites for something that rarely follows through. Its like a casino... win big once and you are sucked in forever and mostly losing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 I'd would like to like Wee Knee's post but there's no button Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Such different places. You lament a warming climate... and talk of moving to a hot, humid swamp. I have more of a problem with it being above average, whatever that is, for the location I'm in. I would honestly feel more comfortable in 90* humidity like I do in Florida vs here because it's normal. I hate the thought of this beautiful planet burning up. I love the scenery in the PNW so much. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Wee Knee sounds like a bad asian restaurant 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 Day 4 .... nope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 You realize that this isn’t a reasonable response, right?Except he does this every year, and has been for almost a decade now. It’d be one thing if it was a one-off, but we’ve long passed the straw that broke the camel’s back. It’s annoying as hell and I’m tired of it. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 30, 2019 Report Share Posted December 30, 2019 My #1 pet peeve is having words put in my mouth. I wouldn’t get this upset typically but Flatiron does this all the time. Claiming I said things that I didn’t say, rewriting history, moving goalposts, etc. It’s so d**n annoying.I seem to remember you telling people to watch for things to turn blocky and cold around the holidays. But it’s possible that you were referring to your thoughts for other parts of the country because sometimes you just seem to throw all your ideas in the PNW thread and it gets confusing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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