December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

12z is not bad. 

The ensembles look active too.  Maybe not an arctic air pattern, but a good mountain snow pattern?  And toward the end it does show toughing in the NW with a ridge at a decent place.  Also shows the jetstream hitting the NW, as opposed to constantly being split and going into California.

 

[Jesse]

I only troll those who troll me. Relax dude. You’ve got your panties bunched up so deep they’re gonna tickle your stomach.

I’m just sitting here trying to enjoy Physics, Atmospheric Science, Extreme Weather, Climate Change, Astronomy, Sports, Heavy Drug Use, Exercising, Relaxing, Love, and Life but all of that darned humidity keeps harshing my buzz. Tell me how I can relax. About to lose my fooking mind

[Blizzard777]

Looks like needed rainfall. 

Every bit helps I agree but my gut wants us to at least get in the ballpark of average.  I hate copper colored fir trees!!!!  

[Jesse]

Every bit helps I agree but my gut wants us to at least get in the ballpark of average. I hate copper colored fir trees!!!!

So do I. Hopefully the slightly wetter warm season this year and perhaps a wetter spring pattern in 2020 will reduce mortality moving into next summer.

[Jesse]

Love the long range 12z.

[Phil]

The ensembles look active too. Maybe not an arctic air pattern, but a good mountain snow pattern? And toward the end it does show toughing in the NW with a ridge at a decent place. Also shows the jetstream hitting the NW, as opposed to constantly being split and going into California.

 

I’m sure Jesse will be calling for my assassination for posting this, but that’s not really a consolidated jet pattern. The 500mb averages on ensemble means can be deceptive at-range, and this is a classic case of it.

 

That’s actually a retracting NPAC/East-Asian jet during the third week of the month, with a STJ component clearly remaining. Hard to pick out but it’s there in the raw 200mb wind speeds (this is 06z..12z not out yet but will be very similar).

 

There’s a filament that breaks off as the retraction cycle begins/+EAMT ends..there’s your “stormy interlude”. But it’s not a change to the background state. Which is why I had called for a brief wet pattern mid-month (these things are hard to nail down re: timing).

 

[Jesse]

No one wants you to pretend you see a consolidated jet pattern when you don’t Phil. That’s reframing. Just don’t harass people for wanting one when it has clear benefits to our region.

[Phil]

Doesn't make you innocent.

I’m definitely not innocent. Just hard to know what type of jokes cross the line here. I never thought my lighthearted jabs at zonal flow would upset people for real..I never had ill-intent with that.

 

No, I don’t want to see you guys whither away in drought and forest fires (and I don’t think that’ll be an issue in the long run, for what little it’s worth). I’m not some sadist.

[Phil]

I’m just sitting here trying to enjoy Physics, Atmospheric Science, Extreme Weather, Climate Change, Astronomy, Sports, Heavy Drug Use, Exercising, Relaxing, Love, and Life but all of that darned humidity keeps harshing my buzz. Tell me how I can relax. About to lose my fooking mind

Is that still my handle?

[Omegaraptor]

Portland is 9.14” below normal precip YTD. Hillsboro is at 12.79” below normal YTD.

[Phil]

In other news, 1 more spotless day and we match 2009’s total. Just 8 more to match 2008’s total.

 

Closing in on the space age record!

[Phil]

The new Euro monthly has a gargantuan, end-times caliber -EPO in January.

 

+NAO/Baffin Vortex though..not sure that’s trustworthy (Indo-Pacific errors?) but would be a buzzkill given there is legit potential for a “ridge-bridge” outcome with coast to coast cold through the heart of winter this year.

[Timmy Supercell]

So I'm looking at the KMAX radar like: "These are the best fronts we got this season?"

 

I like those ones where it's just a 12+ hour stream of moderate/heavy rain, and the image is entirely filled in that whole duration. 

[Blizzard777]

Portland is 9.14” below normal precip YTD. Hillsboro is at 12.79” below normal YTD.

I have a waterfall pump that is metered by how much rain has fallen in the local area.  I’m screwed!!!! 

I also might be fibbing 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The new Euro monthly has a gargantuan, end-times caliber -EPO in January.

 

+NAO/Baffin Vortex though..not sure that’s trustworthy (Indo-Pacific errors?) but would be a buzzkill given there is legit potential for a “ridge-bridge” outcome with coast to coast cold through the heart of winter this year.

 

So basically it is showing a January suckfest? 

[Deweydog]

We’re f*cked.

[ShawniganLake]

Winter’s best is behind us. I had some frost and a flurry that accumulated

[Phil]

Can’t recall seeing a blocking ridge like this on the monthly ECMWF before even in 2014. Not sure this is trustworthy.

 

There’s essentially no jet or pattern variability at all after Christmas, with a +NAO/-EPO continuing through March/April. Blah.

 

Dec-Mar:

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I’m sure Jesse will be calling for my assassination for posting this, but that’s not really a consolidated jet pattern. The 500mb averages on ensemble means can be deceptive at-range, and this is a classic case of it.

 

That’s actually a retracting NPAC/East-Asian jet during the third week of the month, with a STJ component clearly remaining. Hard to pick out but it’s there in the raw 200mb wind speeds (this is 06z..12z not out yet but will be very similar).

 

There’s a filament that breaks off as the retraction cycle begins/+EAMT ends..there’s your “stormy interlude”. But it’s not a change to the background state. Which is why I had called for a brief wet pattern mid-month (these things are hard to nail down re: timing).

 

There was more of a consolidated jet pattern earlier than hour 384. Should have clarified that. At least more than what we have seen.

[Phil]

The monthly Euro almost reads like a glorified nowcast extrapolation that morphs into a lazy persistence forecast.

[ShawniganLake]

#blob

[Phil]

Almost all dynamic climate models nowadays spit out a variation of the same pattern (ridgy NPAC/NE-Canada vortex).

 

They busted on both October’s and November’s pattern as a result. And missed last February. Anytime nature breaks from the pattern of recent years they miss it until it’s within NWP range.

[Jesse]

Those monthlies are straight up Tim-worthy.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Can’t recall seeing a blocking ridge like this on the monthly ECMWF before even in 2014. Not sure this is trustworthy.

 

There’s essentially no jet or pattern variability at all after Christmas, with a +NAO/-EPO continuing through March/April. Blah.

 

Dec-Mar:

 

 

[Deweydog]

Can anyone believe how f*cked we are?

[Timmy Supercell]

Can anyone believe how f*cked we are?

 

About half the time we say this, something happens later.

[Deweydog]

About half the time we say this, something happens later.

F*ck.

[TacomaWaWx]

The vibe in this forum feels a lot like January 2019. I still think there will be some type of snow or cold before March comes.

[TacomaWaWx]

Since 10/22, it’s rained 1.95”.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF sticking to a much more active pattern coming up.

[TT-SEA]

54 and partly sunny here now.

[El_Nina]

About half the time we say this, something happens later.

Or before we even say it.

[Timmy Supercell]

This winter definitely has a 2019-2020 vibe.

[ShawniganLake]

[El_Nina]

50 and mostly cloudy. Wonder if all the pollution in Asia gets into the jet stream and weakens it.

[Omegaraptor]

50 and mostly cloudy. Wonder if all the pollution in Asia gets into the jet stream and weakens it.

 

The jet stream is still strong if, and only if, it is pointed into California.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Surprising to see SLE hit freezing again this morning. 

[Phil]

50 and mostly cloudy. Wonder if all the pollution in Asia gets into the jet stream and weakens it.

No.

[Timmy Supercell]

Surprising to see SLE hit freezing again this morning. 

 

I've been in the low-mid 40's all this morning. lol

[TigerWoodsLibido]

34F at midnight.  Up to 43F so far.