December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Geez...I thought the 12z might be decent given some of the comments on here. Some occasional rain and 7,000' snow levels. Cool

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS tries to retrograde the block after Christmas, but it kind of floats off into the arctic and westerlies break through. 

[Blizzard777]

Hey look quick - something interesting is showing up for once!

 

It showed up on my iPad too!  That’s got to mean something!!!

[Requiem]

Excellent set-up for a WA windstorm, but probably nothing much for Oregon this track. I believe the 1993 Inauguration Day Storm took this kind of path.

[TacomaWaWx]

Would be nice to see that storm verify...but there’s a lot of time for that to change. Current pattern we are in looked wet a week or so ago. Didn’t really end up being wet at all.

[TacomaWaWx]

Excellent set-up for a WA windstorm, but probably nothing much for Oregon this track. I believe the 1993 Inauguration Day Storm took this kind of path.

PDX ought to be due for a windstorm...we had enough windstorm excitement last winter to not need any more for the next 5 years.

[Blizzard777]

45* and stagnant outside 

My lights are up and ready for the rain test.  I’m sure I’ll trip a few 

gfci outlets when enough moisture falls although most are protected.  
also picked up some cool wifi smart plugs ( Costco) so now I can control my light from my phone.

[Blizzard777]

Exciting out.....just need  some dinosaurs roaming about

(2nd shot down in PDX) 

 

[ShawniganLake]

PDX ought to be due for a windstorm...we had enough windstorm excitement last winter to not need any more for the next 5 years.

Washington county hasn’t had a windstorm or snowstorm in nearly a century. Could be another century before they see one.

[Jesse]

Continued GEFS improvement.

[Jesse]

At least PDX made it into the 30s this morning.

[Jesse]

Have also noticed a trend toward a little wetter for the next “system” tomorrow into Saturday, at least on the GFS.

[BLI snowman]

Have also noticed a trend toward a little wetter for the next “system” tomorrow into Saturday, at least on the GFS.

 

Yeah, should be our wettest system in quite awhile at least.

[TacomaWaWx]

That windstorm on the 14th would be epic. Models have been showing something interesting happening in general that weekend, so I hope this is the start of a good storm brewing. Need some excitement up in here!

 

Would be interesting if it did end up verifying considering there was also a significant windstorm on the same day last year. Fingers crossed it actually ends up being interesting, somethings gotta happen to get out of this boring rut of weather.

[Timmy Supercell]

Safe to say we’re probably going to be waiting another year for a major windstorm.

 

It's been years already since a regionally good windstorm. Got close in Fall 2016 a couple times, but pretty sure Feb 2015 was my last decent one. 

[ShawniganLake]

It's been years already since a regionally good windstorm. Got close in Fall 2016 a couple times, but pretty sure Feb 2015 was my last decent one.

What constitutes a regionally good windstorm. Pretty rare for everyone from southern BC to the California border to be effected by the same storm.

[ShawniganLake]

Interesting the Euro has the same storm as the GFS. Rare to see that consistency at day 9

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Haven’t had a good windstorm here since the south valley surprise in 2002.

 

Doesn’t look like much of anything interesting in the cards down this way...

[Blizzard777]

Interesting the Euro has the same storm as the GFS. Rare to see that consistency at day 9

models are really working to draw us in.... ....I might bite

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Interesting the Euro has the same storm as the GFS. Rare to see that consistency at day 9

The Canadian has a decent storm tpo

[Timmy Supercell]

What constitutes a regionally good windstorm. Pretty rare for everyone from southern BC to the California border to be effected by the same storm.

 

Well, a type of wind event that isn't very localized, for example in Dec 2014 wasn't just a PDX event, all the way down here I was getting around 60 as well, and in the Oct 2014 one. It doesn't necessarily have to be the entire west coast, that would be an overblown way to define a regional wind event. 

[BLI snowman]

Haven’t had a good windstorm here since the south valley surprise in 2002.

 

Doesn’t look like much of anything interesting in the cards down this way...

 

Yeah, pretty obvious the models already have a really good handle on the wind in your area next weekend.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Oh cmon Fred.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah, pretty obvious the models already have a really good handle on the wind in your area next weekend.

 

It's going to end up splitting anyway.

[kokaneekidz]

Hey look quick - something interesting is showing up for once!

 

That places the bullseye of the warm nose over Puyallup. And Stevens Pass northward appears headed for heavy fluffy pearlescent goods as well. One can desire these may dreams come true *************** Lots of SNOW!

[Blizzard777]

Would be interesting if it did end up verifying considering there was also a significant windstorm on the same day last year. Fingers crossed it actually ends up being interesting, somethings gotta happen to get out of this boring rut of weather.

Is that the one where Fred did the Denny’s road trip?

[Jesse]

Is that the one where Fred did the Denny’s road trip?

He was Denny’s hopping all night to chase the highest winds, if I recall. That’s the kind of weather geekery dedication I like to see here.

 

But I believe this was the early January storm.

 

Meanwhile we were waiting out the storm at a gas station with its power out in central Lewis County. The wind and branches coming down on I-5 got too crazy so we pulled over. A memorable birthday storm.

[Phil]

Actually been meaning to ask you about that. What kind of a "force" could change the background state that we are in, and is there a way to forecast that?

Well, that’s a long, complicated affair. Many of these boundary state progressions are quasi-stable/unstable and turn on thresholds governed by seasonality and exterternal/whole state perturbations at just the proper time/frequency.

 

Picture yourself shaking a flag pole..if you shake it at its resonance point you can amplify its sway and possibly bring it down, but shake it at the wrong frequency (too fast/slow) and it will resist.

 

In this case there are a multitude of vacillations in the tropical forcing, antecedent AAM state/exchanges, and preexisting boundary conditions (QBO/solar et al) that are running the show. Should these multitude of factors align favorably, a favorable conduit for wave driving may lead to a disruption and/or breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex, with cascading feedbacks on the instability/circulation/convection in the deep tropics and middle latitude wavetrain, which could deliver the “desired” weather conditions to the PNW region.

 

In some years, of course, this “special” conduit for cold/snow/storminess in the PNW is not necessary, and the background state already favors it. This is particularly true in years with +QBO/La Niña combinations, irrespective of solar. These years are the best performing out there..see 2008/09, 2010/11, 2016/17, 2013/14, etc.

 

This is not one of those years, though. So, we’ll need to find a way around/through the background state. To do that, favorable wave driving is a must, in order to avoid locking into a strong +PNA pattern in late winter/spring.

[Jesse]

Great, Phil is calling for a strong +PNA pattern in the late winter and spring.

 

What a punch to the gut that would be.

[Phil]

Interesting the Euro has the same storm as the GFS. Rare to see that consistency at day 9

Here we go again.

[Phil]

Great, Phil is calling for a strong +PNA pattern in the late winter and spring.

 

What a punch to the gut that would be.

That is TBD.

 

But +PNA can be very wet in the Feb-Apr timeframe. Could make up some serious rainfall deficits well into the spring this year.

[AlTahoe]

Well, a type of wind event that isn't very localized, for example in Dec 2014 wasn't just a PDX event, all the way down here I was getting around 60 as well, and in the Oct 2014 one. It doesn't necessarily have to be the entire west coast, that would be an overblown way to define a regional wind event. 

Dec 2014 was the only wind storm to scare me here in Tahoe. We had gust of over 100mph at lake level with thousands of pine trees snapped off mid way up. One 16 year old kid was crushed to death by a tree in an open meadow! Up at Heavenly ski resort they had winds of over 150mph with tons of tree damage. Seeing huge mature pine trees snapped in half mid way up their trunks was eye opening. 

[Blizzard777]

He was Denny’s hopping all night to chase the highest winds, if I recall. That’s the kind of weather geekery dedication I like to see here.

 

But I believe this was the early January storm.

 

Meanwhile we were waiting out the storm at a gas station with its power out in central Lewis County. The wind and branches coming down on I-5 got too crazy so we pulled over. A memorable birthday storm.

Thinking possibly this next year I do a little storm chasing. We shall see.  It’s always sweeter though when your in your own home while a storm is raging outside.

[ShawniganLake]

Here we go again.

Sorry. NM. Storm, rain, wind all cancelled.

 

Split flow is our path to winter weather

[Omegaraptor]

PDX got to 52 at the 11:35 reading.

[Front Ranger]

What constitutes a regionally good windstorm. Pretty rare for everyone from southern BC to the California border to be effected by the same storm.

This.

[Timmy Supercell]

For the last nearly 48 hours straight, continuous frog.

 

Keep it going! 

[Deweydog]

Great, Phil is calling for a strong +PNA pattern in the late winter and spring.

 

What a punch to the gut that would be.

That gut punch blow should be softened by people’s front loading over the holiday season.

[ShawniganLake]

This.

How far south did that wonky August wind storm extend a few years back. That seemed pretty wide spread

[El_Nina]

51, mild and sunny.