December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Timmy Supercell]

How far south did that wonky August wind storm extend a few years back. That seemed pretty wide spread

 

Aug 2015? Yeah I also had some decent gusts in that one too. That low resembled that of an October storm.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Rex Block - Southern California deluge, Northern California and PNW drought.

 

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This sounds intriguing.......

 

BAMWX @bamwxcom

 

What you're seeing happen w/the structure, tilt & location of the #PolarVortex via the LR GFS is no mistake. The north pacific is doing a lot of work on the PV that may not impact the fancy charts but may certainly pave the way for a durable cold source. (1989,1995,2013ish)

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1202663047933956096

[Jesse]

Mylde day.

[Jbolin]

Mylde day.

Feels hoomid

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rex Block - Southern California deluge, Northern California and PNW drought.

 

NorCal PNW Drought.png

 

So great to see the SW doing so well. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Rex Block - Southern California deluge, Northern California and PNW drought.

 

NorCal PNW Drought.png

 

Winter re-cancel. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

So great to see the SW doing so well.

Farmboy must be loving it.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

This sounds intriguing.......

 

BAMWX @bamwxcom

 

What you're seeing happen w/the structure, tilt & location of the #PolarVortex via the LR GFS is no mistake. The north pacific is doing a lot of work on the PV that may not impact the fancy charts but may certainly pave the way for a durable cold source. (1989,1995,2013ish)

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1202663047933956096

Interesting.  Of course they forecast almost exclusively for Midwest farmers, so they may be thinking of how it would impact them.

[MossMan]

How far south did that wonky August wind storm extend a few years back. That seemed pretty wide spread

No power for nearly 3 days at our old place after that event! What a rare late summer storm that was!

[Timmy Supercell]

How far south did that wonky August wind storm extend a few years back. That seemed pretty wide spread

No power for nearly 3 days at our old place after that event! What a rare late summer storm that was!

 

Satellite image from that storm I pulled up from facebook.

 

[jakerepp]

Rex Block - Southern California deluge, Northern California and PNW drought.

 

NorCal PNW Drought.png

Is this what they mean by climate change? 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Interesting. Of course they forecast almost exclusively for Midwest farmers, so they may be thinking of how it would impact them.

Some fun late season magic those winters out here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS is a mess. 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Pretty nice looking system out there right now. Too bad OR/WA are like kryptonite to strong fronts.

[TT-SEA]

Our lawn looks less dormant... mild nights and a little rain.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Beautiful sunny day. 52F

[Timmy]

Our lawn looks less dormant... mild nights and a little rain.

How about those daffodils and cherry blossoms?

[Timmy Supercell]

Seattle will soon have San Francisco's climate. 

[Front Ranger]

Seattle will soon have San Francisco's climate.

When was the last time SF saw 20" of snow in a month?

[Omegaraptor]

Seattle will soon have San Francisco's climate.

 

So summers are going to get cooler?

[Deweydog]

[Timmy Supercell]

When was the last time SF saw 20" of snow in a month?

So summers are going to get cooler?

 

Joking of course folks, 

Winters warmer, less rainfall and almost impossible to get snow. Pretty sure the annual temperature at SF is warmer than Seattle even though their summers are not hot.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Would love an active jet with good West/northwest flow to really slam the cascades right now. This splitty crap is killing me. D****T Mat.

[Phil]

This sounds intriguing.......

 

BAMWX @bamwxcom

 

What you're seeing happen w/the structure, tilt & location of the #PolarVortex via the LR GFS is no mistake. The north pacific is doing a lot of work on the PV that may not impact the fancy charts but may certainly pave the way for a durable cold source. (1989,1995,2013ish)

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1202663047933956096

Yep.

 

Playing the long game.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

NWS slapped their curse on the active storm track advertised for next week by mentioning it in the AFD:

 

But both deterministic models and ensemble means point to a more

consolidated storm track taking aim at the Pacific Northwest in

the later half of next week. December as we normally know it may

yet return.

 

Definitely not going to happen now...

Yeah I will believe it when I see it.  I remember about 8-9 days before Thanksgiving, the models were showing a huge storm aiming at the PNW.  Maue tweeted about it as being a trouble spot, with heavy rain, heavy mountain snow and wind.  Well, it turned out the storm did happen, but that was the one that went down to Northern CA and Southern OR.

 

But sooner or later it's going to happen.  Right?  Right?  Well, maybe, hopefully.

[Phil]

Seeing the PV tilt/go baratropic is nice. Leaves it vulnerable to the next wave-2.

 

Recall last January..warm in the PNW but once that sucker was obliterated and tropical feedbacks started the background state of tropical/extratropical communication was completely overridden in February.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

From Portland:   EPS!

 

The GEFS does hint at a weak atmospheric river impacting the
Oregon/Washington coast towards the end of next week, but QPF amounts
are still rather meager with its various scenarios. Meanwhile, the
EPS suggests a much wetter multi-day stretch is in store for the
region towards the end of next week. Given the considerable
differences among the various modeling systems, have trended the
forecast towards a blend of the various scenarios for now. /Neuman

[TT-SEA]

How about those daffodils and cherry blossoms?

Daffodils are usually early January... so maybe 3 or 4 weeks yet. Cherry blossoms are early February at the earliest here... so that is still 8 long weeks away!

[MossMan]

I’m doing everything I can think of to get this pattern fixed... Not only did my plow attachment arrive today (I was like a 5yr old on Christmas morning when UPS arrived) but I also washed my truck for the first time in 3 months! Snow by Christmas.

[Guest CulverJosh]

There will be so much snow starting around Xmas we are going to get tired of it. Low solar.

[MossMan]

There will be so much snow starting around Xmas we are going to get tired of it. Low solar.

Unless you are High Desert Matt...2nd year Niño...Split Flow Hell...All winter.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Unless you are High Desert Matt...2nd year Niño...Split Flow Hell...All winter.

He wishes he was me. Ha ha ha. And his is spelled with one T. Our parents were drinking a lot. Lol.

[TacomaWaWx]

High temp of 48 today, no rainfall, few sunbreaks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FWIW the ensembles are not as bad as the operational is.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last January was just putrid... January 2018 was even worse, but I think having a crappy January coming off a torchy December made it seem even worse. The average maximum temp at SLE has been over 50 two Januaries in a row now... Even something pedestrian like a 46/34 monthly split would seem swell compared to 2018 and 19. 

[Jesse]

Mark pushed his coolish high and “rainy” wording to the end of the 7-day again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark pushed his coolish high and “rainy” phrase to the end of the 7-day again.

 

I don't know if you caught it, but he did say during a Facebook discussion last week that he is really rooting for a February 89' or December 90' type event. 

[Jesse]

I don't know if you caught it, but he did say during a Facebook discussion last week that he is really rooting for a February 89' or December 90' type event.

This could be a gamechanger.

[Jesse]

FWIW the ensembles are not as bad as the operational is.

There has even been steady improvement on the operational over the last 12-24 hours, IMO.