December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Last January was just putrid... January 2018 was even worse, but I think having a crappy January coming off a torchy December made it seem even worse. The average maximum temp at SLE has been over 50 two Januaries in a row now... Even something pedestrian like a 46/34 monthly split would seem swell compared to 2018 and 19.

 

They both ended up having snow in February thankfully. It’s almost ridiculous how good February has done compared to December and January recently.

[TacomaWaWx]

There has even been steady improvement on the operational over the last 12-24 hours, IMO.

yeah, mid to long range is better than what it looked like a few days ago.

[Deweydog]

Last January was just putrid... January 2018 was even worse, but I think having a crappy January coming off a torchy December made it seem even worse. The average maximum temp at SLE has been over 50 two Januaries in a row now... Even something pedestrian like a 46/34 monthly split would seem swell compared to 2018 and 19.

Center loaded.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It kind of goes in cycles. From 1985-1996 February was a pretty consistent producer. Then from 1997-2010 it essentially ceased being a winter month. 2011-2019 has been a pretty solid period for February. 

 

From 1919-1932 December was amazing. Last December was putrid, but December 2017 was below average, December 2016 was a top 10 cold December for much of Oregon at least, and of course December 2013 was very cold. I still think January is the biggest under performer, 2017 notwithstanding. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Especially considering up until 2011 it had been our biggest loser winter month for about 20 years.

Has snowed pretty much every other February this decade. Has only really been minor sh*t in December and January this last decade outside of Jan 2012 and Jan 2017 in Portland. We’ve all been saying it HAS to snow in December or January this year...but watch us all be wrong and another snowy February shows up lol.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

February snowfall since I moved up here.

 

2012: 16.8"

2013: 0

2014: 10.3"

2015: 0

2016: 0.5"

2017: 13.5"

2018: 18.3"

2019: 52.2"

 

Avg: 14.0"

[AbbyJr]

Seeing the PV tilt/go baratropic is nice. Leaves it vulnerable to the next wave-2.

 

Recall last January..warm in the PNW but once that sucker was obliterated and tropical feedbacks started the background state of tropical/extratropical communication was completely overridden in February.

So when do we actually get our winter arctic blast in the PNW and SW BC do you think? If ever? Models do not look promising at all right now. 

[BLI snowman]

Has snowed pretty much every other February this decade. Has only really been minor sh*t in December and January this last decade outside of Jan 2012 and Jan 2017 in Portland. We’ve all been saying it HAS to snow in December or January this year...but watch us all be wrong and another snowy February shows up lol.

 

 

What's interesting is the number of Januaries recently where we didn't even see a single minor event  anywhere in the lowlands. 2010, 2014, 2015, 2018, and 2019 all lacked any snow whatsoever below 1000' in western OR/WA. That's half of the Januaries in this decade.

 

Comparatively, every January in the 1970s had at least some minor snow somewhere in the region. 9/10 did in the 1960s (1961 the lone exception) and 9/10 did in the 1950s (1958 the lone exception).

[Deweydog]

We’re due!!!!

[Perturbed Member]

Zonal flow is the best. Yay warm drizzle. Boo Arctic air.

 

Screw continental fronts and low wetbulb temps. That stuff is so last century.

 

Please, the lack of precip has nearly extinguished all plant and human life here in Washington County. Just a desolate dust bowl now, we will gladly take zonal to help restart life here. 

[Timmy Supercell]

February since 2011 at OR-KL-5 (CoCoRaHs)

 

2011: 15.30"

2012: 11.30"

2013: 5.30"

2014: 2.50"

2015: 0.60"

2016: 4.40"

2017: 14.20"

2018: 7.90"

2019: 33.40"

[SilverFallsAndrew]

January since I've lived up here.

 

2012: 32.3"

2013: 3.5"

2014: 0

2015: 0

2016: 1.3"

2017: 13.8"

2018: 0.5"

2019: 0.2" 

 

Not stellar for 1600'. 

 

Let's put it this way. I had more snow in February 2019 than all Januaries combined since I moved up here. December has had less, but December historically has been more hit or miss.Better for arctic outbreaks, not as great for cold zonal flow. 

[Timmy Supercell]

January at OR-KL-5

 

2011: 0.10"

2012: 10.10"

2013: 2.30"

2014: 3.00"

2015: None

2016: 7.10"

2017: 27.70"

2018: 4.00"

2019: 8.30"

 

Two times January had either close to none or zero.

 

A couple of years I had slightly more at the house (2017, 2016 and 2012) but overall February is averaging snowier.

[Front Ranger]

They both ended up having snow in February thankfully. It’s almost ridiculous how good February has done compared to December and January recently.

 

Prior to 2017, SEA had only seen four 7"+ Februaries. They've now seen 2 in the last 3 years.

 

PDX had also never seen back to back 6"+ Februaries until 2017-2018.

[High Desert Mat?]

SSW anyone? Models finally are bringing it back to around the 18th or so. Let’s hope this one sticks.

[AbbyJr]

I don't know if you caught it, but he did say during a Facebook discussion last week that he is really rooting for a February 89' or December 90' type event. 

December and January 1990/1991 would be my preference but February 1989 was also good. All three would be nice  But at this point, any of the three is wishcasting.

[TacomaWaWx]

What's interesting is the number of Januaries recently where we didn't even see a single minor event anywhere in the lowlands. 2010, 2014, 2015, 2018, and 2019 all lacked any snow whatsoever below 1000' in western OR/WA. That's half of the Januaries in this decade.

 

Comparatively, every January in the 1970s had at least some minor snow somewhere in the region. 9/10 did in the 1960s (1961 the lone exception) and 9/10 did in the 1950s (1958 the lone exception).

Will be interesting to see if the 2020s continue the February snow theme. Maybe a new king winter month will be crowned for a few years, back to the norm DEC JAN snow events.

[TacomaWaWx]

December and January 1990/1991 would be my preference but February 1989 was also good. All three would be nice But at this point, any of the three is wishcasting.

Wish I had been around to see some of the more legendary winter events that the older folks have seen in the 70s 80s and 90s. Best winter I’ve ever seen was this last one that just happened. Has to be the best winter in the Seattle area this century.

18-19 was just all around crazy for western WA, 3 decent windstorms and a major snowstorm to boot. Then I also recall several days with decent thunderstorms and hail in the fall. Tie all that together and that’s a weather weenies dream for this area anyways.

[Esquimalt]

Wish I had been around to see some of the more legendary winter events that the older folks have seen in the 70s 80s and 90s. Best winter I’ve ever seen was this last one that just happened. Has to be the best winter in the Seattle area this century.

The months prior were so blah. But when I think of last winter, I have a really good perspective on it and my mind reverts to a couple of snowstorms from it.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Has anyone seen what the salamanther model is showing?

 

We had a sneak peek. Certain women who were offended by that Peloton thing or whatever it was need to look to the salamanther.

[TacomaWaWx]

The months prior were so blah. But when I think of last winter, I have a really good perspective on it and my mind reverts to a couple of snowstorms from it.

Last winter wasn’t totally boring before February. There was some decent storms in the second half of December but that’s about it before February happened. Overall it was a pretty interesting winter IMO. Had plenty of wind and snow.

[Deweydog]

Prior to 2017, SEA had only seen four 7"+ Februaries. They've now seen 2 in the last 3 years.

 

PDX had also never seen back to back 6"+ Februaries until 2017-2018.

PDX didn’t have six inches of snow in February 2017?

[Timmy Supercell]

Last winter wasn’t totally boring before February. There was some decent storms in the second half of December but that’s about it before February happened. Overall it was a pretty interesting winter IMO. Had plenty of wind and snow.

 

I still had a white Christmas and middle January had a couple snows, though they just weren't big ones.

[Timmy Supercell]

37/29 with all day fog. Exactly the same as yesterday.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Wow. Models must be really bad.

[Front Ranger]

Dude just stop denying how amazing our winter climate has been lately.

January is the only month that counts.

 

Hey, that is pretty easy!

[MossMan]

Wow. Models must be really bad.

Yeah perhaps Fred should suspend the forum until 2020.

[Omegaraptor]

Wow. Models must be really bad.

 

Summer-tier activity this evening.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Wish I had been around to see some of the more legendary winter events that the older folks have seen in the 70s 80s and 90s. Best winter I’ve ever seen was this last one that just happened. Has to be the best winter in the Seattle area this century.

18-19 was just all around crazy for western WA, 3 decent windstorms and a major snowstorm to boot. Then I also recall several days with decent thunderstorms and hail in the fall. Tie all that together and that’s a weather weenies dream for this area anyways.

 

I moved to the PNW in June of 1989. The snowiest winters I have experienced were: 90/91, 96/97, 08/09, and 18/19.

 

Honestly, one can split hairs, but last February in the Seattle/Tacoma area was definitely in the same league as December in 1990, 1996, and 2008. Yes, 1990 was colder. Yes, 1996 had more snow from Seattle northwards. But those four winters definitely all stand out in a league of their own.

 

So you can rest assured that you have experienced one epic winter.

 

Plus, the biggest dump of snow last February happened on my birthday. :-)

[TT-SEA]

A storm next Friday!

[Jesse]

Summer-tier activity this evening.

The models are actually improving in the mid to long range. I just don’t think anyone believes them yet.

[TT-SEA]

What a gorgeous evening. Moon is shining with a few clouds floating around... a little east wind... and still close to 50 degrees out there. I appreciate nature's blessing.

[Deweydog]

00z!

[MossMan]

What a gorgeous evening. Moon is shining with a few clouds floating around... a little east wind... and still close to 50 degrees out there. I appreciate nature's blessing.

42 here with continued heavy smoke.

[Timmy Supercell]

After 50 hours of continuous fog we're finally looking like we cleared out. That was fun though!

[ShawniganLake]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I moved to the PNW in June of 1989. The snowiest winters I have experienced were: 90/91, 96/97, 08/09, and 18/19.

 

Honestly, one can split hairs, but last February in the Seattle/Tacoma area was definitely in the same league as December in 1990, 1996, and 2008. Yes, 1990 was colder. Yes, 1996 had more snow from Seattle northwards. But those four winters definitely all stand out in a league of their own.

 

So you can rest assured that you have experienced one epic winter.

 

Plus, the biggest dump of snow last February happened on my birthday. :-)

 

We moved to Oregon the same year. My dad has lived in the same place near Silverton on the floor of the Willamette Valley that whole time. I would say the snowiest winters in that time were 1992/93, 2003/04, 2008/09, 2016/17. He measured 37" in 92-93, and 15-20" during the other 3 winters. 

 

To me 2016-17 was a poor man's 2016-17. There were a lot of similarities it seemed. Especially with how spread out the snow events were. Both winters had minor snow events at the beginning of December and late season events as well, the big 12" snow dump on 2/19/93, and the late season 2-3" event on 3/6/17. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What a gorgeous evening. Moon is shining with a few clouds floating around... a little east wind... and still close to 50 degrees out there. I appreciate nature's blessing.

 

Very mild up here too. 49 degrees. About as warm as it gets on a mostly clear night in December here. 

[Blizzard777]

A storm next Friday!

Trending North.....lost the wind storm at the moment 

Much needed moisture though  

[ShawniganLake]

41 with 0.01” of rain this evening