Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Requiem]

I think the EPS is still fine. GFS is ridiculously steadfast, too.

[TT-SEA]

I think the EPS is still fine. GFS is ridiculously steadfast, too.

Bouncing around more for sure... as operational models tend to do of course.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oregon Cascades getting pounded tonight.

 

Northern Oregon Cascades-
Including the cities of Government Camp, Detroit,
and Santiam Pass
800 PM PST Sun Jan 5 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 8 to 14 inches.
Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Oregon Cascades.

* WHEN...Until noon PST Monday.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Oregon Cascades getting pounded tonight.

 

Northern Oregon Cascades-

Including the cities of Government Camp, Detroit,

and Santiam Pass

800 PM PST Sun Jan 5 2020

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST

MONDAY...

 

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 8 to 14 inches.

Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

 

* WHERE...Northern Oregon Cascades.

 

* WHEN...Until noon PST Monday.

 

Put some powder on those resorts!

[El_Nina]

Put some powder on those resorts!

Time for a Mt. Hood Monday puffnboard sesh

[Deweydog]

I wonder what credentials you need to become a weather app meteorologist?

 

And I want my old GFS back.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ended yesterday with a 41/36 split and 0.73" of precip.

 

Through the first 5 days of January.

 

Avg Max: 46.8

Avg Min:  38.2

Precip:     2.10"

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I wonder what credentials you need to become a weather app meteorologist?

 

And I want my old GFS back.

For TWC storm radar app all you need is many many green people from history times.

 

And ditto.

[ShawniganLake]

No reason to be disappointed by the models at all tonight. Anyone disappointed by the ECMWF really needs to look closer at day 10. The 7 to 10 day period is decent itself, but the stage is set perfectly at day 10 for a major event as a low is set to take a perfect track to bury some lowland locations. We could be looking at something really great here.

Isn’t there already a snow to rain overrunning event shown between day 9-10. ?

[snow_wizard]

I said the EPS was more amplified after day 10.  The run hadn't finished yet so I wasn't aware day 15 looked about the same as the 12z.  The stuff around days 11 to 13 was better though.  Maybe the models are beginning to keep the MJO wave strong for a longer time.  If so don't be surprised if the duration keeps getting increased.

[snow_wizard]

Isn’t there already a snow to rain overrunning event shown between day 9-10. ?

 

It appears it could go from snow to brief rain and back to snow again.  It's pretty obvious the low is going to track south though.  you can also see the 10 day ECMWF is about to pull off another phasing of two different troughs which could nail us pretty good.

[Deweydog]

Gonna have to get the easel back out of the closet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We have a decent shot at a wet month. Starting off well at least. 

[Perturbed Member]

No reason to be disappointed by the models at all tonight.  Anyone disappointed by the ECMWF really needs to look closer at day 10.  The 7 to 10 day period is decent itself, but the stage is set perfectly at day 10 for a major event as a low is set to take a perfect track to bury some lowland locations.  We could be looking at something really great here.

 

The 00z Euro is still a good run for you guys up north but it would be a complete dud down here, so I'm hoping it turns out better here. I feel good about the precip on the initial cold shot overdelivering around SEA. Someone will also get under a convergence zone and score big. The initial cold shot being depicted is rarely a setup that works for down here. 

 

Fortunately there is a ton of time for things to change.

 

[Perturbed Member]

16 years ago right now I think it was just about to start snowing.

Don't think we have had a more significant widespread ice storm around here since that right?

[snow_wizard]

The 00z Euro is still a good run for you guys up north but it would be a complete dud down here, so I'm hoping it turns out better here. I feel good about the precip on the initial cold shot overdelivering around SEA. Someone will also get under a convergence zone and score big. The initial cold shot being depicted is rarely a setup that works for down here. 

 

Fortunately there is a ton of time for things to change.

 

 

 

The EPS is colder than the operation ECMWF so the odds are in your favor snow falling further south than depicted by the ECMWF operational.  If we can end up with the right mix of the two models this could be amazing.

[snow_wizard]

If anyone gets a chance I highly recommend looking at the WRF for next Sunday.  The coldest run I have ever seen on that model.  It shows mid afternoon temps of 12 to 16 for the Central Puget Sound on Sunday with lows dropping mostly into the -5 to 10 range the next morning for the lowlands in general.  The run doesn't even go to the normal coldest part of the morning for Monday.  I'm sure it's overdone, but still something to see.

[Meatyorologist]

Just got back on. Euro was that bad huh?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the passes are getting nuked right now. 

[Cloud]

Just got back on. Euro was that bad huh?

Not really, slight step back but the GFS has set some expectations in what people want to see.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just got back on. Euro was that bad huh?

 

Yes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS shows plenty of opportunities continuing through the end of the month.

 

[snow_wizard]

Just got back on. Euro was that bad huh?

 

No.

[snow_wizard]

CFS shows plenty of opportunities continuing through the end of the month.

 

 

It's all going to come down to the MJO wave staying strong.  If it does this is going to be a long and cold ride.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Guess I am on night shift. Wheeeeeee!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe advisory amounts in the Cascades above 2500-3000' on Wednesday.

 

[Meatyorologist]

Low that spawns the kick is weaker, this is likely going to continue the theme of a colder pattern, possibly being better than the 06z. Euro will bounce back somewhat by Wednesday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At hour 138 the cold air surge is not quite as aggressive as the 00z... Splitting hairs here.

[Cloud]

GFS is most likely going to hold its ground here. There was noticeable difference at around this same time frame on the 00z Euro. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Major differences by hour 150. Cold air is delayed, but will it be denied?

 

06z

 

00z

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Next two frames will be critical.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow PDX-north here... Cold air finally starting to drop south....

 

[Requiem]

Very similar to the 18z, but not as absurd as the 00z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cold air surging south now one week from right now. 

 

[Cloud]

Snow PDX-north here... Cold air finally starting to drop south....

 

 

 516 thickness is crossing SEA as opposed to Vancouver/PDX area compared to the 00z. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very similar to the 18z, but not as absurd as the 00z.

 

It s getting there...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At hour 198 it is pretty much exactly as cold as the 00z. 

[Meatyorologist]

I'm going to be honest, I have no idea how the rest of this model run is going to turn out. Ludicrous cold and oppressive northerly flow, but NPac is unrecognizable on the 06z compared to the 00z beyond hour 140.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hard to read the tidbits maps, but looks like about -14C 850mb temps at PDX at hour 204. -16C at Seattle. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm going to be honest, I have no idea how the rest of this model run is going to turn out. Ludicrous cold and oppressive northerly flow, but NPac is unrecognizable on the 06z compared to the 00z beyond hour 140.

 

Looks like that weird mid-week low is going to be back.