Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

Funny how much expectations shift our view of things.

 

A month ago, hell even a week ago, we would not be calling -13c 850 temps "a downer".

 

 

I think people are just, understandably, concerned about any run that slows down the actual arrival of the cold air. 

 

Getting cold air in place is always the first step for winter fun, and often the hardest.

[Perturbed Member]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is a really cold run overall. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Snowy.

[Omegaraptor]

Now we wait for King Euro. Will it finally cave? Find out more at 10:40 PST.

[Jesse]

Some gusty south winds this morning.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Skagit Weather]

This looks nice and all but the arctic tundra waited 24 hours to crash down on us! UGH! *axeheademoji*

 

 

This is the first run that has showed no "snow hole" anywhere in the lowlands. Would be hard to complain if this came to fruition.

[Omegaraptor]

 

PNA just continues to drop farther and farther. Now nearing -7 on 1/13. EPO is dropping as well.

[Skagit Weather]

Cliff Mass focusing on mountain snow currently, but hinting at what is to come:

 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/01/massive-snowfall-and-heavy.html

[BLI snowman]

Canadian is now fully on the bandwagon

 

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This looks nice and all but the arctic tundra waited 24 hours to crash down on us! UGH! *axeheademoji*

 

 

Even the interior lowlands "loser" has over 8" on this 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is onboard. 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TacomaWaWx]

Maybe this is just the gfs trying to move towards a more realistic solution in the mid range? It was pretty hard for me to believe I'd see it get down to 5 degrees at night at my house. I'd take more snow for less dry Arctic cold. Either way these details are going to change several times likely...too early to even speculate.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TacomaWaWx]

Overall things look positive still. Still have faith this pattern will deliver. Not a bad overnight shift...will have to see how this goes with developing a consensus with the other major models over the next few days.

[Jesse]

Looks like the passes are still getting nuked this morning. Even the lower ones like Snoqualmie and Government Camp.

[SalemDuck]

Don't ever post on this, big lurker. But Kuchera snowfall is even more impressive.

 

[Front Ranger]

Lots of possibilities in the 7-10 period. Most of them look snowy for parts of the lowlands. Gotta love that.

 

Ideally, things start off well over the weekend (hell, maybe even a few favored places later this week) with the initial Arctic front making good progress south and just enough energy over the water to spin up a snowy surface low or two. Definitely a little concerning to see the GFS still mostly on its own with the weekend progression...should be an interesting test case for the upgrades made in 2019.

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like the passes are still getting nuked this morning. Even the lower ones like Snoqualmie and Government Camp.

 

Hood area snowpack is now 36% of normal. Still low, but just a few days ago it was 25%. The forecast for the mountains looks excellent so right now there is zero reason to be concerned about lack of snowpack.

 

Also, Meadows has finally reached a 50" base and conditions have been powder for the last several days.

[TT-SEA]

Great article over at KOMO this morning ;

 

https://komonews.com/news/local/stormy-this-week-then-seasons-first-arctic-blast-coming-next

 

 

We got called out!

 

If you’ve been monitoring social media the past few days and you follow any local weather geeks, you've likely heard the chatter about a potential cold and snowy pattern setting up for the week of Jan. 12. We've been monitoring it with amusement because we see these "oooh! Look at all the cold air" patterns out 10-15 days in the winter all the time and they usually disappear when as the days gets closer. Remember the snowflakes on your app a week or so ago for snow on Jan. 4-6? How much snow are you shoveling today?

[Front Ranger]

Canadian is now fully on the bandwagon

 

 

 

12zgem010620.png

 

Much warmer than the GFS for Sat night - Monday, though. 

[Omegaraptor]

Don't ever post on this, big lurker. But Kuchera snowfall is even more impressive.

 

 

Cascade Locks!!!

 

Jan 1950!!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Don't ever post on this, big lurker. But Kuchera snowfall is even more impressive.

 

Kuchera is suppose to be more accurate as well.

[Front Ranger]

 

PNA just continues to drop farther and farther. Now nearing -7 on 1/13. EPO is dropping as well.

 

Yeah, EPO has definitely trended lower. Will be key if things are to get really cold.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z GFS compared to the 12z UKMET at day 6. The UKMET shows the trough for this weekend dig in deeper and doesn't slide east as much.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gfs_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Kuchera is suppose to be more accurate as well.

 

 

GFS snowfall maps are almost always overstated... and sometimes dramatically.   Particularly over long periods of time.

 

They are almost as useless as the surface temp maps from the GFS.

[BLI snowman]

Much warmer than the GFS for Sat night - Monday, though. 

 

The airmass gets hung up and actually creeps around from the WNW on the GEM. Pretty funky.

 

It will probably keep trending towards the rock steady GFS anyways, but the important thing is that the models showing significant arctic air are now outnumbering the models that aren't.

[wxmet]

Glad to see the GFS 12z trend north with those shortwaves and also a much more favorable storm track with the big storm mid next week. Fun times ahead.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Getting hard to ignore the crazy totals being shown. Last feb showed this and look what happened. Not saying it will but this is the only 2 times i have ever saw these high totals shown over and over. 

[Jesse]

Hood area snowpack is now 36% of normal. Still low, but just a few days ago it was 25%. The forecast for the mountains looks excellent so right now there is zero reason to be concerned about lack of snowpack.

 

Also, Meadows has finally reached a 50" base and conditions have been powder for the last several days.

 

Going to guess that hasn't updated for a day or so.

[wxmet]

GFS snowfall maps are almost always overstated... and sometimes dramatically.   Particularly over long periods of time.

 

They are almost as useless as the surface temp maps from the GFS.

In general, model snow maps are useless as they are fixed on a 10:1 ratio that doesn’t reflect how dynamics impact snowfall ratios. Those maps are just good to get an idea of where there will fall.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS snowfall maps are almost always overstated... and sometimes dramatically.   Particularly over long periods of time.

 

They are almost as useless as the surface temp maps from the GFS.

 

2/25/19 being an exception. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Finally gave my brother a hint and sent him that crazy snow total map his response.. FUCKKK

[Rubus Leucodermis]

We got called out!

 

If you’ve been monitoring social media the past few days and you follow any local weather geeks, you've likely heard the chatter about a potential cold and snowy pattern setting up for the week of Jan. 12. We've been monitoring it with amusement because we see these "oooh! Look at all the cold air" patterns out 10-15 days in the winter all the time and they usually disappear when as the days gets closer. Remember the snowflakes on your app a week or so ago for snow on Jan. 4-6? How much snow are you shoveling today?

 

I never put much faith in those model runs (and neither did most people here) The difference is that those runs in late December were just a few runs. We’ve had way more than that showing the possibilities of an arctic blast this weekend and next week. This time is different. It’s not obviously just a few random outlier runs. It’s a distinct possibility. Not a certainty, but certainly a possibility.

 

And this is a weather geek discussion forum, not a weather forecasting service. Speculative discussions come with the territory.

[kokaneekidz]

Even CLIFFMASS is dipping his toes in the water.

 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/01/massive-snowfall-and-heavy.html?m=1

[Skagit Weather]

Would be surprised if this actually accumulates in the lowlands outside of maybe the convergence zone, but shows temperatures will be right on the edge. Most of the sea level stuff falls early Thursday morning.

 

[Front Ranger]

The airmass gets hung up and actually creeps around from the WNW on the GEM. Pretty funky.

 

It will probably keep trending towards the rock steady GFS anyways, but the important thing is that the models showing significant arctic air are now outnumbering the models that aren't.

Yeah, definitely not a slam dunk for Arctic air at this point, but looking a lot more likely than 2-3 days ago.

 

They being said, would probably be wise to expect that the GFS solutions past day 7 are probably too cold - unless the other models start showing the same thing.

 

Have to remember, the GFS runs from a few days ago were overall too cold for what now appears likely later this week. None of this means it won't eventually get really cold - any time you have blocking in the region this block is forming that's possible.

 

But at this point, it's probable that the GFS is rushing things a bit, or generally just running a little too cold in the mid/long range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM gives W. Washington a huge snow storm the middle of next week. Probably mixes PDX out way too fast...

 

Also looks a lot more progressive, like the low is just going to move on through and all the cold air behind it will just pour on in.