Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Doesn't make sense how much of an outlier the Euro op. is. Either all the other models are gonna cave to the euro op or the other way around. Wtf is going on.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is not only colder than the ECMWF... its actually colder than its 00Z run.

[TT-SEA]

Doesn't make sense how much of an outlier the Euro op. is.

Difference is in Alaska.

 

Small differences up there have huge impacts on us in this pattern.

[jakerepp]

12Z EPS is not only colder than the ECMWF... its actually colder than its 00Z run.

So....now what? Cheese and crackers this is gonna drive me crazy. 

[HighlandExperience]

12Z EPS is not only colder than the ECMWF... its actually colder than its 00Z run.

EPS has ESP

[TT-SEA]

EPS still showing Tuesday being the coldest day... just the like the 00Z run.

 

It starts to moderate by day 9. That could be overrunning snow though.

[wxmet]

Best bet at this point is to go with the ensembles since the operational is struggling to handle the pattern change. It’s better for us that the EPS agrees with the GFS.

[Slushy Inch]

The EPS says the Op is a big liar.

MAPS Please

[MossMan]

Models struggle with these rare setups. The models pooped on the first of February 2019 six days out...Remember that!

[TT-SEA]

MAPS Please

I just posted a comparison at the coldest point. See above.

[TacomaWaWx]

Best bet at this point is to go with the ensembles since the operational is struggling to handle the pattern change. It’s better for us that the EPS agrees with the GFS.

Hopefully. It's true though I feel like we all pay a lot of attention to the operational models instead of the ensembles.

[TacomaWaWx]

Models struggle with these rare setups. The models pooped on the first of February 2019 six days out...Remember that!

the discussions were having on here now and the model pullback drama is almost an exact copy of last late January. Just was looking at those threads the other day. LOTS of upset angry posts a couple days before the hammer came down on us.

[TacomaWaWx]

So....now what? Cheese and crackers this is gonna drive me crazy.

 

Im about to lose my mind myself here lol. Lots of uncertainty still!

[TT-SEA]

Arctic air makes a short visit to WA on day 8 into day 9 per the EPS.

 

By days 10 and 11 its significantly warmer than on day 8 and 9.

 

This is also a great time to use the control run as a guide to see if the operational run is on its own.   The control run is a complete train wreck... just like the operational run. 

[Deweydog]

Im about to lose my mind myself here lol. Lots of uncertainty still!

Just a little? Why don’t you (the models) just meet me in the middle?

[bainbridgekid]

Arctic air makes a short visit to WA on day 8 into day 9 per the EPS.

 

By days 10 and 11 its significantly warmer than on day 8 and 9.

 

This is also a great time to use the control run as a guide to see if the operational run is on its own.   The control run is a complete train wreck... just like the operational run. 

Seems like the Euro control run has been swinging more wildly than just about any model with this.

[Front Ranger]

Best bet at this point is to go with the ensembles since the operational is struggling to handle the pattern change. It’s better for us that the EPS agrees with the GFS.

 

Sort of. It's more of a compromise for Sun-Tue.

[TT-SEA]

EPS warming up faster after day 10 than previous runs.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12z ECMWF

 

[Omegaraptor]

 

GFS, GEM, EPS, ECMWF

[kokaneekidz]

The Europeans are finally breaking bread with us. Way to go!!!

[Front Ranger]

Screenshot 2020-01-06 at 11.39.53 AM.png

 

GFS, GEM, EPS, ECMWF

 

The GEM looks like it wants to do bad things to the EPS.

[joelgombiner]

I recommend everybody plant a winter veggie garden next fall. It's a good emotional hedge at times like these. 

 

No extreme cold, and your garden thrives. Or, extreme cold kills your garden but you get to enjoy the unusual weather. 

[MossMan]

The NAM will be the King model!

[Phil]

Seems like the Euro control run has been swinging more wildly than just about any model with this.

The control run is just an unperturbed ensemble member.

[Phil]

EPS warming up faster after day 10 than previous runs.

It’s colder after D10 vs 00z, actually, with more cold in closer geographic proximity.

[bainbridgekid]

Looked like Skykomish picked up 5 or 6 inches of snow yesterday.

 

Crazy how much snow that place gets for being under 1,000 feet.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

And the EPS is much colder by late Tuesday...

 

EPS

 

 

ECMWF

 

Nice, build that CRB Cold Pool!

[TacomaWaWx]

Just a little? Why don’t you (the models) just meet me in the middle?

I could make them meet in the middle. Just gotta grab my easel and start painting.

[Phil]

Animation of the 12z EPS 850mb difference from 00z.

 

12z definitely colder:

 

[TT-SEA]

It’s colder after D10 vs 00z, actually, with more cold in closer geographic proximity.

 

 

Yeah... it ends up keeping it a little cooler in the long range.

 

It seems to be stuck at 318 hours... but the block is pretty weak by then like previous runs showed.

 

[Phil]

Animation of the 12z EPS 850mb difference from 00z.

 

12z definitely colder:

 

 

Note how much warmer Alaska is on the 12z versus 00z in the animation posted previously.

 

The result of this amplification is a deeper western trough and sharper SE ridge.

[TT-SEA]

Animation of the 12z EPS 850mb difference from 00z.

 

12z definitely colder:

 

 

 

Definitely colder at the coldest point too... which might be important.

[TacomaWaWx]

So are we marking this down as a winter cancel or no?

[Omegaraptor]

So are we marking this down as a winter cancel or no?

 

It's TWF. If one bad model comes out it's winter cancel.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Note how much warmer Alaska is on the 12z versus 00z in the animation posted previously.

 

The result of this amplification is a deeper western trough and sharper SE ridge.

Wow, that's nice to see.

[kokaneekidz]

If the GFS ends up being correct with this episode, then whatever software - hardware - firmware update they did last year was a GREAT investment and utilization of taxpayer monies.

[van city]

[kokaneekidz]

WOW; it is a lock even the cotton farmers, tobacco farmers can make hay out of this. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z JMA still on board the Arctic train.