Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SnarkyGoblin]

eeek @ Euro

 

Not liking the trend...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Warmer than 00z looks about same as 12z  yesterday.

[Front Ranger]

Warmer so far.

 

Yeah at day 5 the block isn't amplifying as much into AK. Continues to be warmer than GFS, no change there through Saturday.

[seattleweatherguy]

Battle between models continues

[TacomaWaWx]

So nice to see this pattern change!  Hoping this is only the beginning of some really active fun weather!

wet.....then cold, snow......AR......Wind event....back to snow.......cold and so on

This fall/winter has been an interesting one. September and October were both pretty interesting with thunderstorms and anomalous early season cold. Then we transitioned to a pathetic split flow pattern from the beginning of November all the way to mid December. Weather has been much more active since the big AR mid December...Rainier and even a couple modest wind events mixed in. Maybe hopefully some snow in a week.

[ShawniganLake]

Gfs shows a big snowstorm Friday for BC. Euro says mostly rain.

[Deweydog]

The Euro forgot that October was really kold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS continues to be way more aggressive with the cold air than the EURO. 

[Blizzard777]

GFS continues to be way more aggressive with the cold air than the EURO. 

Perfect married couple 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is WAY warmer.

[Winterdog]

GFS continues to be way more aggressive with the cold air than the EURO. 

History pretty much says the Euro will prevail or at least a large move in that direction soon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z ECMWF is WAY warmer.

 

Yeah it has 850mb temps like -2C at PDX on Saturday night. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Only KBLI is out so far of those three. Looks quite snowy up there. 80% show over a foot by D16.

 

I'll share KSEA and KPDX when they show up.

 

 

 

Pretty impressive eye candy, there. Mean of 12.8", median of 13".

[Phil]

850mb temps drop to -39.6C in SW BC on the 12z GFS.

 

What an impressive pattern. Persistent anticyclonic wavebreaking in just the right location with a healthy Indo-Pacific MJO superimposed on a WPAC/W-IO dominates background state. Old old old school.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

History pretty much says the Euro will prevail or at least a large move in that direction soon.

 

They need to fix the GFS, or go back to the old one. 

[Omegaraptor]

850mb temps drop to -39.6C in SW BC on the 12z GFS.

 

What an impressive pattern. Persistent anticyclonic wavebreaking in just the right location with a healthy Indo-Pacific MJO superimposed on a WPAC/W-IO dominates background state. Old old old school.

 

Any idea why the GFS and Euro are so different right now?

[TacomaWaWx]

Any idea why the GFS and Euro are so different right now?

pretty major split in the models. Weird that the GEM also hopped on board with the gfs but the euro hasn't. Not sure what to think.

[Phil]

Then forcing moves to 160E later in January, so that NPAC wavetrain is probably only going to amplify further with time.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

JUNK

[TT-SEA]

This trend toward a weakness in the block and energy hanging back over Alaska could still be a big problem. It just shuts off the arctic express.

 

ECMWF might still get there... but delays within day 7 are not a good sign.

[Winterdog]

If we weren't so worked up over unrealistic GFS runs this would be an okay Euro showing some real potential.

[FroYoBro]

The Euro shows a lot of mountain snow early next week! 

[AJ1013]

Euro looks awful for you guys (comparatively) but interestingly it's significantly colder for me. LOL

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. The Euro is not even close. 

 

[jakerepp]

The Euro shows a lot of mountain snow early next week! 

Yeah but it ain't lowland snow. Throw it out!

[TacomaWaWx]

If we weren't so worked up over unrealistic GFS runs this would be an okay Euro showing some real potential.

Bunch of maps with 3' of snow and Sub zero temps can get the weenies worked up real fast.

[Deweydog]

The Euro shows a lot of mountain snow early next week!

Yeah, judging by the posts here by the doomers and gloomers I expected it to look A LOT worse!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm sure it will look great at day 10? Interesting to see what the EPS shows. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just scroll back 4 or 5 runs. The Euro is not stable at all with this pattern. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Just scroll back 4 or 5 runs. The Euro is not stable at all with this pattern.

 

none of the models seem to be really. gfs has been the only consistent one it seems but it's just too bullish to be believed.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's time.. Attack TIM!!!

[TT-SEA]

Just scroll back 4 or 5 runs. The Euro is not stable at all with this pattern.

Yeah... but we are talking about the pattern at 5 days out setting the stage. The ECMWF will lock in at this range. It's not going to keep swinging wildly.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Pretty soon the cold runs will be into Feb. Chasing the Dragon.

[Deweydog]

Chilly trough for (next) Tuesday...

[Phil]

Any idea why the GFS and Euro are so different right now?

It’s how they handle the Siberian wavetrain/MJO structure and the associated contributions to the AAM budget that affects the displacement of mass, WAFs, etc.

 

The GFS is essentially just faster than the ECMWF in propagating the tropical forcing out of the IO/E-IPWP and handles the AAM budget/wavetrains differently as a result. The ECMWF is more inclined to drag its heels but would eventually “get there”, most likely (though these things can be nonlinear as the AAM budget/seasonality evolves).

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yeah... but we are talking about the pattern at 5 days out setting the stage. The ECMWF will lock in at this range. It's not going to keep swinging wildly.

Starting to feel like it will be a slower process into the cold and that might just be fine still. The overall pattern is there.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF starting to look like what the EPS has been showing. Arctic air bottled up in BC and AB for the most part (exception was only day 9 on the 00Z run)... and a chilly pattern for the rest of the West.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It’s how they handle the Siberian wavetrain/MJO structure and the associated contributions to the AAM budget that affects the displacement of mass, WAFs, etc.

 

The GFS is essentially just faster than the ECMWF in propagating the tropical forcing out of the IO/E-IPWP and handles the AAM budget/wavetrains differently as a result. The ECMWF is more inclined to drag its heels but would eventually “get there”, most likely (though these things can be nonlinear as the AAM budget/seasonality evolves).

Pretty much how my Mom described it only she was a bit more detailed.

[Phil]

The GFS (or at least the old GFS) has historically had a bias to over-propagate forcing out of the IPWP domain and into the WHEM. However, the ECMWF can get bogged down over the IPWP (and the Canadian is the worst by far with this respect to said MC barrier effect).

 

But yeah, one could expect a tropically-forced wavetrain evolution such as this one to be rushed by guidance that would be more inclined to do so anyway.

[Winterdog]

Over 5,000 posts in this thread during the first six days of January in anticipation of the upcoming snowpocalypse and now we are left with the 12z Euro...

 

What a waste of 5,000 posts.

Nahh, they have been quite entertaining at times.