Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Perturbed Member]

Cold air surging south now one week from right now. 

 

 

 

The cold will get there but for the OR low lands, it will be the usual drill of precip running out just as it gets cold enough. I think any shot of significant snow will potentially come later and not with the initial front. 

[Requiem]

Still a very cold run.

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like that weird mid-week low is going to be back. 

 

The mid week low has been around on the GFS for at least 24 hrs now and on the euro as early as today's 12z. It was also on tonight's GEM. 

Model's have been moving it around, sometimes further offshore or more north. I wish the D**n thing would come in much further south to cut down the SW flow as it approaches. 

[Perturbed Member]

East winds at PDX and snow. Nice keeping the center of the low far away to preserve the low level cold a bit better. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The mid week low has been around on the GFS for at least 24 hrs now and on the euro as early as today's 12z. It was also on tonight's GEM. 

Model's have been moving it around, sometimes further offshore or more north. I wish the d**n thing would come in much further south to cut down the SW flow as it approaches. 

 

Here is some snow at hour 246

 

[Requiem]

The mid week low has been around on the GFS for at least 24 hrs now and on the euro as early as today's 12z. It was also on tonight's GEM. 

Model's have been moving it around, sometimes further offshore or more north. I wish the d**n thing would come in much further south to cut down the SW flow as it approaches. 

 

Still plenty cold this run though, while the trailing front approaches land.

[Cloud]

The midweek system moves up drastically on this run. Region wide snow gets there by Thursday Jan 16. 

[Perturbed Member]

Should be a pretty good dump of snow. 

 

[Perturbed Member]

I think as long as the cold air is actually delivered like the GFS shows, at least some widespread snow seems more likely than not. The euro solution with the real cold stuff getting stuck at passport control at the border is what makes me a bit more nervous. Goes to show you that minor nuances with the high level pattern happening in the near term can still derail things easily. 

 

Glad to see the GFS standing firm though. Here is to hoping the 12z Euro comes in line. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That low is so far off shore. If it would trend a bit further south and closer to the coast we would be in great shape. Tons of cold air to the north still if it ever kicks through. 

[Requiem]

Pretty brutal snow event this run. Bitter outflow winds and heavy snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Requiem]

That low will not leave haha

[Perturbed Member]

Warm nosed

 

[Requiem]

Reminds me of 1/6/2004 or even 12/20/08 in some ways.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At some point the cross cascade gradient would probably become more of a gap wind and that warmer air aloft would start mixing down. Plenty of cold air behind that low if it ever moves through.

[Perturbed Member]

The gorge in action

 

 

 

Barely maintaining a snow/sleet profile.

 

I love these battle of the airmasses when it goes from snow to sleet/zr and then back to snow. The back and forths are fun.

[Perturbed Member]

Through HR276, very snow for all of WA lowlands and down through PDX and at least north Willamette valley. There is more snow after this. Another great run from the GFS. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yes, nice to see the arctic air on this run. The long range was very goofy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow from Albany north as moisture floats up from the massive AR going into California.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just up and checked on 6z. The GFS just doesn't back down. Brutally cold. Through Day 7-8 6z GEFS I see the ensembles improved. Seattle mean temp -11c. PDX not many changes -8c. I keep thinking with the GFS consistency, timing edging ahead that we're going to see much colder ensembles soon. Maybe that began with this run. I don't know. Onto 12z. Cya then.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensemble mean bottoms out at -8.2 on the 06z which is about the same as 00z. If we lose a few warm members in that time frame it will drop a bit further. 

[AJ1013]

Hi all!

 

Been following this thread for a few days, I live in Tucson, not the pnw, but unfortunately your SW thread is rather dead. Love the model analysis on here. Keep it coming guys!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like the 06z was a step back. Rats.

[paulstorm]

06z Euro stays the course. (only runs out to 90hrs) Incoming Aleutian/Bering Sea low in the upper 960mbs. A little weaker than the 06z GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting tidbit from the PDX AFD this morning. 

 

Models have been and continue to be in general agreement shortwave
ridging in the Gulf of Alaska will amplify Wednesday night into
Thursday. This will place the region in a cool and moist
northwesterly flow pattern. The next storm system appears likely to
arrive Wednesday night, but in the form of a surface low pressure
dropping southeastward across the eastern Pacific towards the south
central Oregon coast. A more southern path could leave us out of the
heaviest precipitation, but a more northern path could bring a solid
shot of precipitation to the region. With colder air in place, this
could also leave a portion of our CWA susceptible to low elevation
snow depending on the exact track, speed and timing. In fact, a few
ensemble members of the GEFS and EPS systems suggest such a scenario
so it`s worth monitoring, but at this point, the probability appears
quite low. /Neuman 

[FroYoBro]

Starting to warm up a bit, but it is still snow for the ski resorts on Mount Hood right now. Great to see them getting nailed with snow! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Starting to warm up a bit, but it is still snow for the ski resorts on Mount Hood right now. Great to see them getting nailed with snow! 

 

Temps are slowly warming. 40 here staying steady at 38 from midnight to 4am. 

 

Timberline should probably stay all snow however. Santiam Pass may change over to rain by noon, but by then most of the precip will have lifted north anyway. 

[AJ1013]

06z GFS was a noticeable downgrade. Best runs were a few days ago, had a couple inches of snow for the old pueblo (Tucson). Hopefully it trends back in the right direction.

[Esquimalt]

Does anyone have the weather bell total snow map from the 06Z? Thanjs

[AJ1013]

70/34 forecast today here. Last snowfall was on Feb 22nd (1.9”)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

70/34 forecast today here. Last snowfall was on Feb 22nd (1.9”)

 

We talk a lot on here about weather preferences. What kind of weather gets you excited? 

[AJ1013]

We talk a lot on here about weather preferences. What kind of weather gets you excited?

Cold and snow during the winter and thunderstorms during the summer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10" of snow the past 24 hours at Timberline. Their base is now up to 57"!

[The Swamp]

Tim how we looking at day 15-25? Zonal flow with drizzles?

 

Can you show us surface temp maps in the low 40’s.

 

How quick will my snow monster melt? Will it be gone by MLK?

[jakerepp]

Wow, Stevens is reporting 18 inches over the last 24 hours! 

[TT-SEA]

Wow, Stevens is reporting 18 inches over the last 24 hours!

That is awesome... I just saw that Snoqualmie has received a foot now.

[jakerepp]

That is awesome... I just saw that Snoqualmie has received a foot now.

 

And how much is going to wash away today... 

[AJ1013]

We talk a lot on here about weather preferences. What kind of weather gets you excited? 

This is my ideal (fantasy) climate. Thoughts?

 

[TT-SEA]

And how much is going to wash away today... 

 

Still snowing and 31 there... its going to get messy but I doubt it gets warm enough to wash away a foot of new snow.