Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hmm, really? I wasn't crushed at all by this EURO run, but having Mark as a voice of reason is still reassuring. Does he mean the current EURO ensembles?

 

Well most recent, which would be 12z. 

[MossMan]

To all of the newbies on the forum...First off welcome! Secondly, what you witnessed by the old timers here after the EURO came out was completely normal.

[Perturbed Member]

And still EURO has that low off the coast-- like the other models (just without the wicked cold). GFS has been very consistent, EURO not so much. With GFS and UKMET on board, that's hard to ignore.

 

 

That mid week low was actually on the previous euro too and it produced plenty of snow. The problem on this run is the cold air never gets here because of the other low near Alaska is much stronger when the ridge and upper level pattern are initially setting up. This has significant consequences for us later on, at the very least it seems to delay the cold. The trough can't dig here quite as aggressively. Hopefully we'll see future runs go back to weakening that low. 

[Deweydog]

Mark Nelsen posted a few mins ago that if you look at the EURO and GFS ensembles they are almost exactly the same. He said maybe we pay too much attention to operational runs.

Oh Mark....

[Requiem]

That mid week low was actually on the previous euro too and it produced plenty of snow. The problem on this run is the cold air never gets here because of the other low near Alaska is much stronger when the ridge and upper level pattern are initially setting up. This has significant consequences for us later on, at the very least it seems to delay the cold. The trough can't dig here quite as aggressively. Hopefully we'll see future runs go back to weakening that low. 

 

Ah, if then, yeah, not the best. But every other model has been drastically weakening that thing, so we'll see how things go...

[kokaneekidz]

My GUT says it is going to snow like I haven't witnessed in my short lifetime, IMHO. If someone will take me up on it I will bet all my chicken stock, beef stock, and vegetable stock that the afformentioned model from a few days ago was and is the truth. My heels are dug in and I will not be swayed.

[ShawniganLake]

The Euro is fine for much of WA.

If you ignore the stuff past Day 10, I think the euro is snowier than the gfs for Western Washington, which is what most people care about

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO control.

 

[Requiem]

EURO control.

 

 

I know control is crazy but that's better than the last one, I think.

[snow_wizard]

The EPS mean is much improved.  Solidly cold in the 8 to 10 day period.  This is evolving into something special I think.

[kokaneekidz]

Has anyone bothered to check the Japanese model. JMA?>? is it worth including>?

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS is unchanged... basically agrees with the operational run with coldest day be on day 9 and then some moderation on day 10.

 

Here is day 11:

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

EURO control.

 

Great run!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Tim's right.  And if anything, at day 10, the 500 mb is slightly improved IMO.   Just a bit better orientation of the ridge/trough.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The EPS mean is much improved. Solidly cold in the 8 to 10 day period. This is evolving into something special I think.

Good to hear.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Has anyone bothered to check the Japanese model. JMA?>? is it worth including>?

The 0Z run of the JMA only goes out 72 hours.  Speaking of other models, Michael Snyder tweeted out that the German Icon is similar to the Euro.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Requiem]

I think if something special happens for PDX it’ll be sometime between next Monday and next Thursday.

[TT-SEA]

The EPS mean is much improved.  Solidly cold in the 8 to 10 day period.  This is evolving into something special I think.

 

I just don't get this stuff.

 

Its essentially the same.   Technically... if you want to drill down on the maps then you will see its actually a little warmer on day 8 and slightly cooler on day 9 and about the same day 10.

 

But basically its unchanged for all intents and purposes.

 

It can always be much improved on every run... are we looking at 850mb temps of -50C now?    Just frustrating.

[snow_wizard]

The EPS keeps the pattern more amplified for a longer time as well.  Yess!

[TT-SEA]

I will say that the EPS looks very much like the ECMWF at day 10... and then it moderates from there.   Noticeably warmer by day 12 as the block weakens and shifts east... which is what the last couple EPS runs have shown.

 

Here is day 13:

 

I am not saying it will happen... but if you want to extrapolate the EPS should be referenced.  

[snow_wizard]

No reason to be disappointed by the models at all tonight.  Anyone disappointed by the ECMWF really needs to look closer at day 10.  The 7 to 10 day period is decent itself, but the stage is set perfectly at day 10 for a major event as a low is set to take a perfect track to bury some lowland locations.  We could be looking at something really great here.

[kokaneekidz]

It is just the timing of this thing being less than 20 days after the shortest day of the year that allows me to see this having a unique chance at being a legitimate snow outbreak that brings sticking snow to any and all surfaces. Call me crazy but even last year was lacking in compact snow and ice on majour thoroughfares, this is what I want to witness. An ability to take my flexible flyer down the mukilteo speedway and not have any sparks (hit pavement) ., The last time I remember this happening was the crazy 90 dec snow and the 96 post xmas snowbowl,.

I just don't get this stuff.

 

Its essentially the same.   Technically... if you want to drill down on the maps then you will see its actually a little warmer on day 8 and slightly cooler on day 9 and about the same day 10.

 

But basically its unchanged for all intents and purposes.

 

It can always be much improved on every run... are we looking at 850mb temps of -50C now?    Just frustrating.

[TT-SEA]

EPS day 14... make your own decisions about the data.

 

 

[Requiem]

Gut feeling (though nature doesn’t give a crap about those ofc): someone in the lowlands gets slammed and we get decently cold (but not GFS levels). Next week looks like a lot of potential.

[MikeInEverett]

Tim and Jim are saying the opposite things lol

[Jbolin]

You might want to get that checked out 

My GUT says it is going to snow like I haven't witnessed in my short lifetime, 

[Requiem]

Tim and Jim are saying the opposite things lol

I don’t know if Tim thinks there’ll be snow, but we’ll see.

[TT-SEA]

Gut feeling (though nature doesn’t give a crap about those ofc): someone in the lowlands gets slammed and we get decently cold (but not GFS levels). Next week looks like a lot of potential.

 

 

There will almost definitely be lowland snow... the only issue could be that low cutting off a little farther to the north and west which seems to be a trend right now.   Fine line between easterly flow and overrunning snow and SE and S winds and cold rain at that point.

[Requiem]

There will almost definitely be lowland snow... the only issue could be that low cutting off a little farther to the north and west which seems to be a trend right now. Fine line between easterly flow and overrunning snow and SE and S winds and cold rain at that point.

I will say that the low cut off seems to be more of a trend with the EURO than the steadfast GFS, but let’s just hope for the best I guess.

[TT-SEA]

Don't worry Tim, I'll ban them so the frustration can stop.

 

People can celebrate whatever they want... I love that.

 

But I don't like inaccurate statements that are misleading.    The EPS is not "much improved" in the 8-10 range... its about the same.   And the EPS moderates from there.   Let the maps speak for themselves I guess.

[Deweydog]

At the very least I think this pattern will finally get PDX into the 30’s this decade.

[TT-SEA]

EPS at day 15:

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

People can celebrate whatever they want... I love that.

 

But I don't like inaccurate statements that are misleading.    The EPS is not "much improved" in the 8-10 range... its about the same.   And the EPS moderates its from there.   Let the maps speak for themselves I guess.

 

[snow_wizard]

To be fair to Tim, I didn't realize the 12z EPS was as cold as it was. Not sure how that got by me.  This run is a little lower on heights and bit shaper with the trough, and does stay more amplified after day 10.

[kokaneekidz]

It's a veritable heatwave. Are we talking Puerto Vallarta weather or Haiku Maui?>

EPS at day 15:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Since when did we start posting every frame of every model run. 

[Deweydog]

16 years ago right now I think it was just about to start snowing.

[TT-SEA]

EPS is a pretty important model.   In hindsight... it might end up being the most accurate and stable of all the models for this entire cold period.

 

People can make up their own minds about the EPS.  I will just post the maps.  When it agrees with the ECMWF run at day 10... then I use it for a view into the 10-15 day period.   Often times it is consistent and then it usually ends up being pretty close.   Its consistent as hell right now.  

[kokaneekidz]

All joking and tomfoolery aside. Thanks for the analysis by all(Tom, Fred, Andrew, Jim, Jesse, Dewey et al), even though some is hard to stomach since I am so gungho on this alleged klondike express.