Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

So....this run was way colder and the deep cold lasts longer.  Hoping for the lengthening trend to continue!

[GHweatherChris]

This low is too far North to bury you, right?

It just doesn't bury me.

[jakeinthevalley]

I cant even begin to read that....good night everyone

Going to bed this early? Lapine is in the Hawaiian time zone. Didn't your partner tell you?

 

Idiot

[Perturbed Member]

Last frame on the GEM

 

Surface temps in PDX already above freezing and 850s on the GEM are no where near the GFS. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Took a little nap and woke up to a tremendous GFS run. WOW. Encouraging GEM too. A bit delayed, but also showing an arctic blast. 

 

GFS bottoms Salem out at -15C and 508 Thickness. Totally nuts. Just a great run from start to finish. 

[Front Ranger]

Advice from Mark Nelsen concerning weather apps:

 

"And, for the love of any sort of deity…stop staring at weather apps! They are good for general weather forecasting during benign weather, but useless in situations like this. Totally automated. Plus, what does a snowflake for next Monday mean; a snowy day? a few flurries?"

 

weather-app-snow-forecasts.png

 

Sounds like a man desperately hoping he won't lose his job to machines.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Best ensemble mean yet for PDX too. 

[snow_wizard]

This is eye popping.  An actual PV chunk right on us.

 

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Anyone know what is the lowest verified thickness over Seattle? 498?

[MossMan]

Early next week has definitely trended drier but I think that mid-week system is still a big wild card.

As long as the snow map verifies that was posted on the last page which shows me getting between 6-8” of snow going into the freezer I would be a-okay with that!

[snow_wizard]

Sounds like a man desperately hoping he won't lose his job to machines.

 

He's right though.

[Esquimalt]

Ensemble mean. Look at all the pretty colors!

Do you have a zoomed in Washington map (that also shows SW bc)?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are still tied and have the ball 3rd down and goal from the 5 yard line. At worse we are about to go up a field goal. 

[snow_wizard]

Anyone know what is the lowest verified thickness over Seattle? 498?

 

My guess would be right around 498.  Jan 1893 may have gone lower.  Anything below 510 is awesome for this area.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

My guess would be right around 498.  Jan 1893 may have gone lower.  Anything below 510 is awesome for this area.

Do you know what 1990 was?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[FroYoBro]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

Surprised to still see so many warmer members January 13th. Still room for improvement.

[Perturbed Member]

I thought the fun would be over on the 00z GFS after that low made landfall in Canada, but the cold air comes right back along with more snow. 

 

I thought it was only the 18z that was drunk, but lately every GFS run has pretty much been putting out drunk results. 

[El_Nina]

DK BigWin.gif

Goodies for everyone!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z GFS compared to the 00z UKMET at day 6.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gfs_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Sounds like a man desperately hoping he won't lose his job to machines.

He's right though. I remember seeing an app calling for rain and a temp of 45 degrees for Leavenworth. It was really 31 and snowing. Meanwhile it was also saying snow and 32 for Yakima. Called my sister who lives there. It was 41 with rain.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Analog Composite
Day 6-10 Top year January 2004!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[seattleweatherguy]

Anyone know what is the lowest verified thickness over Seattle? 498?

Jan 1950? 1949

[TigerWoodsLibido]

81 members. And we're still a week away from this. Godspeed iFred.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z GFS Analog Composite

Day 6-10 Top year January 2004!

 

 

January 2005. LOL

[ShawniganLake]

And finally, the obligatory 384 hour snow map.

 

You just have to...

The Kuchera ratio maps might look a little better, could be some better than 10:1 ratios. It showed 40-70” for east Vancouver Island in a 10 day stretch. That would rival the all time historic events here.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

[Blizzard777]

Gfs is in a giving mood. Happy New year North America 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Have to fall asleep soon to get up early for work so not calculating percentages and differences tonight.

 

Just going to throw the maps out there for KPAE, KSEA, and KPDX 00z GFS individual ensemble member snowfall...

 

 

 

 

Do u have EUG pls?

[GHweatherChris]

Do u have EUG pls?

He needs to get some sleep.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF 1 PM Saturday. Cold air filtering south

 

4 AM Sunday. Cold air blasting south quickly

 

4 AM Monday. MAJOR potentially historic arctic blast!

[Requiem]

 

Do u have EUG pls?

 

 

You are an absolute hero, thank you.

[The Swamp]

00z WRF 1 PM Saturday. Cold air filtering south

 

4 AM Sunday. Cold air blasting south quickly

 

4 AM Monday. MAJOR potentially historic arctic blast!

Holy smokes! That is crazy cold. Any snow with the arctic front?

[Esquimalt]

Holy smokes! That is crazy cold. Any snow with the arctic front?

Next to none it looks like

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5