Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[High Desert Mat?]

Just wanted to say we have 2”/hr rates in Bend right now. Top five for hardest snow I’ve seen in my life. 31 degrees and about 4-5” on the ground now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some good news. Willamette Basin snow pack is up to 50% of average now and Mt. Hood 54%. We should continue climbing for a few days before split flow returns. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just wanted to say we have 2”/hr rates in Bend right now. Top five for hardest snow I’ve seen in my life. 31 degrees and about 4-5” on the ground now.

 

That's great. 

 

Bend airport is reporting light snow and 34 FWIW. Redmond light rain and 36.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's great. 

 

Bend airport is reporting light snow and 34 FWIW. Redmond light rain and 36.

 

Just looked at road cams in Bend. It is definitely dumping snow there...

[TacomaWaWx]

Can't blame the PDXer folks really. After last Feb. I think tensions are a little high. 

I hope it trends better for them.

 

oh well.I Wish it worked out for everyone but not every winter is a December 08. Maybe this February or next year. Lesson is never be more than cautiously optimistic unless it's 48 hours out. I learned that in January 2005 and 2011. I'll get excited but never really too excited until it's a certain thing. It never looked quite as promising for PDX unfortunately that's just the way it goes. Hopefully we all get surprised. We all thought this was going to be a big one but I'll still have fun next week regardless.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In case anyone missed it. 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Cloud]

12z NAM maintained a northern track for the Sunday low. 

 

CZ is stronger at SNO/KING counties line, slowly sink south over next several hours. 

 

The bad news (for PDX) is that the cold air continues get push further north. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z NAM maintained a northern track for the Sunday low. 

 

CZ is stronger at SNO/KING counties line, slowly sink south over next several hours. 

 

The bad news (for PDX) is that the cold air continues get push further north. 

 

Cold air barely makes it to PDX on the 06z GFS. At least the mountains get a few days of snow and my seasonal forecast becomes almost prophetic. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently 37 with light rain. 0.55" since midnight. 

[Cloud]

Cold air barely makes it to PDX on the 06z GFS. At least the mountains get a few days of snow and my seasonal forecast becomes almost prophetic.

So yeah, I didn’t wanna show the map, but the warm nose is there for PDX at hour 84 on the NAM

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So yeah, I didn’t wanna show the map, but the warm nose is there for PDX at hour 84 on the NAM

 

At this point it is quickly slipping away. It would take almost an unprecedented reversal for anything decent. I think the best shot at anything significant PDX-south is with the Monday night system. The 06z had a better track for that, but it was to warm below 1000'. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just not a ton of moisture with the mid-week system and the flow turns onshore much faster. Ironically because it is still a chilly airmass, there is actually less of a chance my location turns to rain before the end of the work week than the great GFS runs which always showed a 12-24 hour warm nose up here at the point the system was better aligned for the valley/PDX.

[TT-SEA]

Snoqualmie Summit is absolutely buried now.    

 

They went from barely being open and warning skiers to avoid obstacles because of low snow cover to this warning this morning...

 

DEEP SNOW SAFETY: Be smart about storm riding! With what will feel like bottomless powder out there, it's absolutely critical you know and practice the basics of deep snow safety. Always ride with a buddy, stay close, maintain visual and verbal contact, and avoid trees. Hit the link below to learn more about how to reduce your risk in deep snow conditions.

 

Live cam...

 

[Blizzard777]

Apparently I will not need to worry about the bananas now.

That kind of worried me

 

45*

3.04 inches of precipitation for the month 

[Blizzard777]

This is actually starting to look like a complete non event for Portland.

 

The reality of how lame this airmass will be is finally showing up on models.

 

Ouch.

Winterized my daughters house in Tigard for nothing  

[TT-SEA]

Here is the 06Z ECMWF at the peak of the c-zone in the 7-10 p.m. period... this area has the best chance of significant snow accumulation.  It does start farther south and move north but it shows it being north of me for most of the evening.  

 

 

 

 

After the big burst of initial c-zone activity... it does finally slip southward in a weaker state by early morning.   So the original and most active part of the c-zone will shift north a little... but once the flow relaxes then should be able to sink south.  

 

   

[Omegaraptor]

Snoqualmie Summit is absolutely buried now.

 

They went from barely being open and warning skiers to avoid obstacles because of low snow cover to this warning this morning...

 

DEEP SNOW SAFETY: Be smart about storm riding! With what will feel like bottomless powder out there, it's absolutely critical you know and practice the basics of deep snow safety. Always ride with a buddy, stay close, maintain visual and verbal contact, and avoid trees. Hit the link below to learn more about how to reduce your risk in deep snow conditions.

 

Live cam...

 

I just got to Mt Hood Meadows. Loads of pow, windy, stormy weather. 12” reported in the last 12 hours. Can’t wait for the lifts to get going.

[Omegaraptor]

 

Current state of the Timberline snow stake. At the very least we can cheer on the fact that we probably won’t have a drought this spring and summer if this keeps up.

[TT-SEA]

The ICON is finally catching on as well... shifting the low north with each run.   

 

Now it shows the low to our northeast around midnight tomorrow night and that puts the c-zone up around the King/Snohomish line and probably tilted slightly from SW to NE.    The c-zone usually points towards the location of the departing low.

 

[TT-SEA]

The current situation right now also illustrates c-zone behavior.

 

Here is where the low is this morning...

 

 

And you can see the c-zone signature pointed in a more NW to SE orientation...

 

[TT-SEA]

I just got to Mt Hood Meadows. Loads of pow, windy, stormy weather. 12” reported in the last 12 hours. Can’t wait for the lifts to get going.

 

My sons are heading up to Snoqualmie Summit this morning.   I told them they have to stay together.

 

A really good friend of theirs lost his dad last year on a day like this... fell into a tree well.   He was an expert skier for 30 years.   Texted his wife at the top of the run and said it was his last run and he would be home soon.   Never made it to the bottom.

[Prairiedog]

Next Thursday is just a chilly raw, rainy day.

 

Time to rip off my Bill Walton tie dye shirt and run thru the yard catching cold raindrops on my tongue.  What's a guy to do?  Time to drag the sled out and chase steelhead.  Thought the possible cold and snow would keep me off the river.  Now it's just putting up with cool temps with high humidity.  Not fun for these old bones but its Oregon winter fishing weather. 

[TT-SEA]

Just crazy at Snoqualmie Pass... I-90 is in there somewhere.

 

[High Desert Mat?]

Just looked at road cams in Bend. It is definitely dumping snow there...

Ya. It still is and now there’s 7” in most spots. Nothing in Redmond. Crazy

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is probably going to look confusing... at 4 p.m. it shows the low in central WA but the cold air is actually a little farther north at that time than the 00Z run.

 

 

 

That looks perfect for a c-zone over south King County... but I think that is just a broad area of low pressure out there and the center is ill-defined.

 

The next frame shows the low center farther north like the ECMWF has been showing.

 

[Timmy]

Hell or high water, Tim will get his CZ!

[Blizzard777]

Here it is!

 

Now would actually be the proper time to watch this....sally 

 

Still watching for Mother Nature to throw all of us off guard and sneak up and bite us! 

That’s happening now 

[Requiem]

Good Lord y'all are depressing. Honestly never seen this place so upset in my time here. Sure this could have been better...still hasn't even happened yet. Could be some surprises. Still looks fun in my area. Not going to be depressed about what could have been and enjoy the event most of us in western WA should have fun.

Yeah, you Western WA people should be just fine and dandy like usual. Same can’t be said for this garbage city.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I foresee an OR/WA civil war on the board where the OR posters have to make their own page for a while.

[HighlandExperience]

Much more intense CZ on the 12z NAM.

Hope that is wrong. The CZ looks pathetic. Confined to a very small strip

[MikeInEverett]

Yikes

[TT-SEA]

That low keeps trending north on Monday... its getting close to actually being good for the Seattle area.   

 

[Cloud]

Worth watching the Tuesday system for Puget Sound, trending a bit north in this run after the 06z hinted this. If this keeps up more moisture will get to SEA.

[TT-SEA]

Worth watching the Tuesday system for Puget Sound, trending a bit north in this run after the 06z hinted this. If this keeps up more moisture will get to SEA.

 

 

You mean Monday?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

So despite all the bust-o-rama last night, both NWS and EC are still going with cold and snow on Sunday up this way? Weird.

 

 

Sunday

Rain before 10am, then snow. Temperature falling to around 30 by 5pm. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. Breezy, with a south southeast wind 18 to 22 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

[Blizzard777]

That low keeps trending north on Monday... its getting close to actually being good for the Seattle area.   

 

My B–DAY might be saved 

[Cloud]

You mean Monday?

The southern system right? Yeah. Is it Monday or Tuesday?

I thought that’s 4pm Tuesday

[HighlandExperience]

12z icon looks snowy for Puget Sound.

[Timmy]

The southern system right? Yeah. Is it Monday or Tuesday?

I thought that’s 4pm Tuesday

Monday 4pm