1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Hawkeye]

another nice run of the RAP for many reading and still snowing heavily at HR 21-

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011004&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

 

I don't like the way that snow plume is aimed into northeast Iowa.  I'm definitely concerned that strong warm air advection may lead to this.

 

It's going to be a pretty picture just north of that snow/sleet line.... will probably be dumping big flakes.

[Grizzcoat]

I've noticed that as well.  The only real change I expect is a juicing-up of the first wave because the last couple runs have been pretty weak and dry.

Maybe the UKie's had a govt shutdown.... )

[james1976]

I don't like the way that snow plume is aimed into northeast Iowa. I'm definitely concerned that strong warm air advection may lead to this.

Yeah like Grizz said earlier the NW trend could be caused by today's warmth to an extent.

[Grizzcoat]

I don't like the way that snow plume is aimed into northeast Iowa.  I'm definitely concerned that strong warm air advection may lead to this.

I hear ya. Of course when you are in the heavy snow potential - the sleet isn't far away and warm air.  Concerned about that here. But a reason I had some hope being NW of this for most of time was that this would happen and shove things NW. Pick your poison I guess.

[Grizzcoat]

Thing that most outside the weather field fail to understand is how incredibly difficult it is to get a snowstorm (or even several inches this year) as so many atmospheric variables have to be just PERFECT. Too cold- and no moisture. Too warm and it's rain. Too much warm air aloft with cold ground temps = freezing rain etc...The ways NOT to get a snow event are nearly endless and only several ways exist to actually get one and why they are so special (outside the fact  I enjoy winter) meteorologically.

[Hawkeye]

I was a bit annoyed this morning when models were dancing around, but I'm content with whatever happens.  If the waves split me and I get nothing, oh well.  We'll get a good storm again sometime.  If there is little/no snow, I won't have to shovel much and I'll be able to continue to walk outside on dry ground.

 

That said, it'll be tough to take if I get nothing while 10 miles nw gets 4-6" of snow. 

[james1976]

I was a bit annoyed this morning when models were dancing around, but I'm content with whatever happens. If the waves split me and I get nothing, oh well. We'll get a good storm again sometime. If there is little/no snow, I won't have to shovel much and I'll be able to continue to walk outside on dry ground.

 

That said, it'll be tough to take if I get nothing while 10 miles nw gets 4-6" of snow.

I still think you're in a good spot. We'll know in bout 30min lol

[bud2380]

Euro is running out to hour 12

[bud2380]

Pretty similar through wave 1

[jcwxguy]

Euro shows maybe an inch for Omaha/Lincoln

[Money]

Looks similar with first wave maybe a hair more precip/north

 

Second wave looks less organized through hr 36

[bud2380]

Wave one on the euro is solid for Iowa city CR and Dubuque. Wave two is looking weaker.

[bud2380]

Yuck wave two is garbage on the euro. Looks like the GFS

[Money]

6 mb weaker at hr 42

 

Total cave job

[bud2380]

SLP is 6mb weaker this run. Showing 5” for Iowa city and CR. Almost all of it on wave one. Total flip flop on the models. This storm has big bust potential.

[Money]

Milwaukee area still looks to do well with 8+ but yikes

[Hawkeye]

Welp, this is why you can't just throw out the GFS and hug the Euro.

 

Frankly, it does not surprise me that the Euro is going southeast/weak.

[james1976]

So I may get a bit of snow Friday evening and that's it. Crazy stuff. I was never much in the game anyway but that's a slap in the face for you guys east and south.

[Money]

Welp, this is why you can't just throw out the GFS and hug the Euro.

 

Frankly, it does not surprise me that the Euro is going southeast/weak.

First wave coming in much stronger is killing this

[Bellona]

I'll take the NAM and rapids, I have less and less faith in the GFS.

[bud2380]

Well even the euro shows 6” for Iowa city. GFs 5, NAM 7, 3k NAM 10” and HRRR 5” even though the storm isn’t done. So up to 6” is still a real possibility

[Hawkeye]

First wave coming in much stronger is killing this

 

Pretty much.

 

Now, for most of Iowa, it's all about the sleet/snow line Friday/Friday night.

[snowstorm83]

Euro shows maybe an inch for Omaha/Lincoln

 

Yeah yikes. Hopefully the Euro isn't seeing something that GFS and the short term models are. 

[Hawkeye]

00z UK is about as expected.  It's a bit juicier with wave 1, about the same with wave 2.  The GFS/UK/Euro are similar now.

[ToastedRavs]

6z RAP a nice hit for southeast Nebraska into much of SW to NE Iowa. Includes the Des Moines metro. Fun Friday evening commute tomorrow!

[Bellona]

I actually like where I'm sitting right now in Waterloo. We'll see how I feel tomorrow night at this time!

[Hawkeye]

06z HRRR, first wave

 

The HRRR appears to be more like the NAM with wave 2.

 

[snowstorm83]

6z NAM with 6-8" for Omaha/Lincoln. Last model I'm looking at for the night, bedtime for me. I get off work tomorrow at 4, so it could be an interesting commute. Right now it seems like Euro vs. GFS/NAM/RAP/HRRR.... Euro may be outnumbered, but that doesn't mean its wrong. 

[Hawkeye]

NAM now looks more like the RAP..... snow band is sw-ne IA, Cedar Rapids gets mostly sleet.

[ToastedRavs]

First winter storm warning for a lot of Iowans this winter. Congratulations and it's about D**n time!! Let it snow!

[bud2380]

Long write up by DVN. Talking about where the sleet line will setup. That will make or break the forecast. Right now they think mostly snow northwest of Iowa city. Fingers crossed. 4-8”

[Tom]

00z Euro....did the King just cave to the GFS/Ukie???  It's nice to wake up and see that Chitown is back in the game.  I'm still not sold on it but won't lie that it is nice to see the Euro come onboard with a weaker and farther SE track for the main energy.  I hope all of us can share in the wealth that are in the snow dept.  

 

As Bud mentioned, there was a storm earlier on in the season (Dec 14th-18th) that the GFS sniffed out post d7 and consistently advertised a snowstorm while all the other models played catch up.  It was the storm that hit those members around KC and the MW/OHV region.  

 

I've been watching the consistency of the GFS/GEFS and that voice in my head said "there is a chance" the GFS may be right.  With it being less than 36 hours before game time, I feel pretty good getting at least a shovel-able snow and making it look like Winter again.  

 

FWIW, the Euro Control followed suit to the Ukie/Euro/GFS and hits MO/IL/SE WI hard with the defo band....

 

 

00z GEFS...

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

06z GFS...a lot weaker overall which helps bring the snow back farther SE...

 

[Tom]

00z EPS mean....def trended weaker in the snow dept...

[ToastedRavs]

Spoke too soon about my county being in a warning, or even Des Moines. What an idiotic decision by Johnston NWS. Makes zero sense. They say that they don't think second band will make it to metro thus only an advisory despite 6 inch amounts and higher in grids. Frustrating and I will laugh at their stupidity when they have to adjust later this AM. Rant over

 

And they clearly didn't coordinate or agree with surrounding offices. To be in on that conference call.

[jcwxguy]

Rap

[Tom]

06z RGEM...

 

[GDR]

[dubuque473]

DVN still has me for around 7” when it is all said and done. WSW.

Hoping for 4”+

[jcwxguy]

Such a large spread over se Nebraska and Iowa from rap/hrrr to rgem.

 

Riding a fine line for Omaha/Lincoln