Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Jesse]

PDX just rocketed into the mid-50s. Even a coolish day is just not in the cards this late January.

[van city]

Free Dewey!

[MossMan]

It was Matt’s exposing of the teleconnections from the last event that did him in.

[Requiem]

Dewey didn’t seem to do anything ban-worthy...

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap I wasn't even looking at the thing for early next week on the ensemble.  Much colder than previous runs.

[snow_wizard]

The Ensemble followed the GFS like a lost puppy dog with the potential cold pattern earlier this month. Hopefully the GEFS has a better handle on it this time.

 

At least tonight the GEFS has a pretty coherent look to it when looking at the 500mb anomaly maps.  The GFS was a bloody mess.

[snow_wizard]

It was Matt’s exposing of the teleconnections from the last event that did him in.

 

He probably had a point that a dash of -EPO might have made it work out very well.  It was too reliant on PNA like Jan 2005.

[snow_wizard]

We have 4 ensemble members that drop to -13 or lower over SEA on tonight's run BTW.

[snow_wizard]

Dewey didn’t seem to do anything ban-worthy...

 

I can't wait to hear what he did, if he was even banned.

[Timmy]

It was Matt’s exposing of the teleconnections from the last event that did him in.

I was thinking that or something to do with MLK, maybe he was trying to warn us all this time?

[Omegaraptor]

Long range GEFS looks good for skiing. 

[jakeinthevalley]

Dewey didn’t seem to do anything ban-worthy...

Emoji overuse

[luvssnow_spokane]

It was Matt’s exposing of the teleconnections from the last event that did him in.

Being above the Frey is the Dewey way. 

[Jesse]

Long range GEFS looks good for skiing.

 

If it didn’t look like that it would be just like 2014-15. Food for thought...

[Esquimalt]

If it didn’t look like that it would be just like 2014-15. Food for thought...

I like how you roast his every comment

[bainbridgekid]

Euro is back to showing a low riding the boundary through Puget Sound and sets up an anafront snow situation during the day Sunday.

 

Can't say I saw that coming. Models had pretty much abandoned that idea the last couple days.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro alert.

[Esquimalt]

Euro alert.

Looks good for you and I

[Requiem]

Euro is back to showing a low riding the boundary through Puget Sound and sets up an anafront snow situation during the day Sunday.

 

Can't say I saw that coming. Models had pretty much abandoned that idea the last couple days.

 

Anything for poor old Portland?

[ShawniganLake]

Anything for poor old Portland?

Nope

[TT-SEA]

Just a bit more snowy...

 

[Requiem]

Nope

 

Sad, but didn't expect otherwise. Next year?

[BLI snowman]

BLI snowman is in on it.

 

Yes. Dewey banned me and then hacked my account. 

[MossMan]

Just think...One year ago right now everyone here was in major meltdown mode since no snow had fallen yet the entire season and the models were taking a dump for the then upcoming February event...Oh the memories!

[Omegaraptor]

If it didn’t look like that it would be just like 2014-15. Food for thought...

 

Yeah I really don't give a sh*t. 

[bainbridgekid]

Just a bit more snowy...

 

I noticed that the runs with the anafront snow during the day Sunday are all warmer and much drier without the CZ snow Sunday night, though.

 

Kind of a pick your poison setup.

[MossMan]

Just a bit more snowy...

 

Excellent! Both the GFS and Euro look good for my area!

[TT-SEA]

Strange day on Sunday per the 00Z ECMWF... way more snow in the morning and then it's in the 40s by early afternoon. Not trolling... just not what I would expect.

 

[BLI snowman]

In another exciting new development, the UKMET is now available on Pivotalweather.

[MossMan]

In another exciting new development, the UKMET is now available on Pivotalweather.

According to Cliff Mass the UKMET is right up there with the Euro accuracy wise!

[bainbridgekid]

Strange day on Sunday per the 00Z ECMWF... way more snow in the morning and then it's in the 40s by early afternoon. Not trolling... just not what I would expect.

 

Which is why I'd much prefer the GFS setup.

 

Both the GFS and Euro show a similar amount of total snow in a very similar location, but they're from completely different setups. The Euro shows it falling early in the day Sunday from an anafront while 850mb temps aren't much below freezing and the GFS shows it falling while 850mb temps are closer to -9 Sunday night.

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like southerlies have broken through at PDX.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Strange day on Sunday per the 00Z ECMWF... way more snow in the morning and then it's in the 40s by early afternoon. Not trolling... just not what I would expect.

 

To be expected... sun angles are legit and impactful. 

[TT-SEA]

To be expected... sun angles are legit and impactful.

Don't think that's the reason.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Don't think that's the reason.

Sarcasm.

[TT-SEA]

Sarcasm.

Actually... the ECMWF does show a fair amount of clearing by noon on Sunday. Might not be totally wrong.

[MossMan]

Sarcasm.

You are no DeweyMatt.

[TT-SEA]

Which is why I'd much prefer the GFS setup.

 

Both the GFS and Euro show a similar amount of total snow in a very similar location, but they're from completely different setups. The Euro shows it falling early in the day Sunday from an anafront while 850mb temps aren't much below freezing and the GFS shows it falling while 850mb temps are closer to -9 Sunday night.

Yeah... the ECMWF would be an instant melt-a-thon as soon as the snow stopped falling. Less than ideal.

[Requiem]

Yeah I really don't give a sh*t. 

 

On the plus side...there was some 40 dbz rain earlier. Potentially not Redding-worthy, but still great!

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is not good after Sunday.