Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[kokaneekidz]

Yeah... I have seen it bust really bad in both directions in these situations.   

 

The ECMWF insists there will be snow even for the Seattle area all the way through Wednesday.

Then that might suggest that the klondike express never quite makes it thru and gets hung up somewhere. OR a low is going to spin up off Tofino and continually provide the goods to us all. Neither likely but still a possible outcome. These models have been flakey at best and negligent at worst with this entire cold episode. At least the GFS upgrade was worth every dime of taxpayer assistance since it was first to notify us .....

[bainbridgekid]

Yeah... I have seen it bust really bad in both directions in these situations.   

 

The ECMWF insists there will be snow even for the Seattle area all the way through Wednesday.

Generally speaking, the drier runs are much more likely to bust than the moister ones in situations like this IMO.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

You will see sticking snow in the next five days. I'm willing to wager my super NES version of Donkey Kong Country II, complete with a strategy guide that I spilled mountain dew on in 1996.

Ugh was never a fan of that game compared to the first one. Plus you don’t even get to play as DK in that one.

[BLI snowman]

CMC is much more amplified with the mid week system than previous runs with the low tracking north.

 

Hoping it's out to lunch. Would be a pretty quick transition.

[TT-SEA]

Since Snowmizer is up at his cabin frolicking in the bounties of snow loveliness over there (all of us need a cabin in the snowy land) I am going to speak for him...

 

“The WRF is a steaming pile of donkey s**t, don’t trust it...”

 

Unless it shows lots of snow!

[bainbridgekid]

The reason the WRF is so dry is that it blasts the Northerly flow in very quickly this afternoon. By 5 PM North wind has already reached Tacoma.

I know from years of living on Bainbridge and waiting and hoping for the CZ to slip South that it almost always takes significantly longer than the WRF shows.

[MossMan]

JAYA’s latest!

[bainbridgekid]

Noticed that basically the entire Fraser River Canyon is 32-33 degrees from Hope, BC to Abbotsford right on the border.

Will be interesting to track the progress of the cold air once the low slides East of there.

[MossMan]

My phone just told me that my screen time was up 16% for the week...figured it would have been even more.

[TacomaWaWx]

Noticed that basically the entire Fraser River Canyon is 32-33 degrees from Hope, BC to Abbotsford right on the border.

Will be interesting to track the progress of the cold air once the low slides East of there.

Lytton BC is 19 degrees with strong north winds. So it's on the move somewhere between there and Boston bar.

[TT-SEA]

The reason the WRF is so dry is that it blasts the Northerly flow in very quickly this afternoon. By 5 PM North wind has already reached Tacoma.

 

I know from years of living on Bainbridge and waiting and hoping for the CZ to slip South that it almost always takes significantly longer than the WRF shows.

 

For comparison... the ECMWF does not show any north wind in Tacoma until maybe late tomorrow afternoon... 24 hours later than the WRF.

[Dave]

Off topic, but I consider myself a bit of an enthusiast of the original donkey kong. I was able to score a couple hundred thousand and get way up there on the arcade version scoreboards. If you are a video game geek like me, watch the King of Kongs.

 

Btw, I no longer feel me and TWL are gonna get completely shafted. My guess is about 2 inches total, but not necessarily depth.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tim do you think the pass will stay open today westbound?

[TT-SEA]

New HRRR at 4 p.m. today... the c-zone is set up right over Everett and Lynnwood.

 

 

 

And then here is 8 p.m.

 

 

 

And midnight...

 

[TT-SEA]

Tim do you think the pass will stay open today westbound?

 

Sure as hell hope so!

 

I have one son supposedly driving to WSU today and another son going skiing.   

 

Or maybe none of that will happen.

[wxmet]

UKMET 12z with a similar low position to the CMC at day 5 west of Washington.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow all the way through Wednesday afternoon per the 12Z WRF... has to be wrong for all the reasons mentioned.   

 

[MossMan]

New HRRR at 4 p.m. today... the c-zone is set up right over Everett and Lynnwood.

 

 

 

And then here is 8 p.m.

 

 

 

And midnight...

 

Not terrible for my house...at least between 4-8pm.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Already 15 pages. Hope you get lots of the white stuff this week.

[TT-SEA]

For reference... here is a link to the site where you can monitor the air mass in real time:

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=11&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1#

[GHweatherChris]

For reference... here is a link to the site where you can monitor the air mass in real time:

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=11&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1#

Hourly.

[TT-SEA]

Hourly.

 

Close to real time.  

[GHweatherChris]

[TT-SEA]

[bainbridgekid]

Mid-late week storm looks very healthy on the NAM.

 

[GHweatherChris]

Close to real time.

Meh, not really.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Noticed that basically the entire Fraser River Canyon is 32-33 degrees from Hope, BC to Abbotsford right on the border.

 

Will be interesting to track the progress of the cold air once the low slides East of there.

It's technically the Fraser Valley until you get to Hope, where the Fraser Canyon starts. The arctic front is presently someplace between Lytton and Hope.

[TT-SEA]

Meh, not really.

 

You will literally nitpick everything I say just for the sport of it.   

[GHweatherChris]

You will literally nitpick everything I say just for the sport of it.

My point was valid, not a nit pick. This time.

[TT-SEA]

My point was valid, not a nit pick. This time.

 

Of course it was valid... it updates hourly.   Much better than waiting every 6 hours for a model to initialize.    Hourly is very close to real time for tracking 850mb and 925mb temps.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I would be surprised if I got 2 inches here into Monday. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

The cold air is actually over the water now, just north of Vancouver Island.  You can see it clearly here (Observe the falling temps since Midnight.  Some are quite cold:):

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=5&scroll_zoom=false&center=40,-97&boundaries=false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&tab=observation&hazard=true&hazard_type=all&hazard_opacity=70&obs=true&obs_type=weather&elements=temp,wind,gust&temp_filter=-80,130&gust_filter=0,150&rh_filter=0,100&elev_filter=-300,14000&precip_filter=0.01,18&obs_popup=true&obs_density=60&obs_provider=ALL

 

I just need to get to Beaverlodge some day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the GFS ensembles trended south with that low too.

[TT-SEA]

New 12Z ECMWF shows temperatures between 35 - 37 degrees in Bellingham and in Vancouver BC even at 5 p.m. this evening.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF between 4-7 p.m. 

 

[TT-SEA]

7-10 p.m.

 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through 4 a.m. tomorrow... quite a bit less than the 00Z run showed for the same time.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just like the last few years the euro has no idea how to handle the low level cold imo.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through tomorrow afternoon at 3 p.m.

 

[MossMan]

ECMWF between 4-7 p.m.

 

Just about 5 miles south and I’m good.