Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Deweydog]

Thanks Tim.

[Weiner Warrior]

D**n climate change is messing up the models. They don't know what to think.

[Weiner Warrior]

I'm going to bed until spring

[Weiner Warrior]

Here comes a rainy day

[TT-SEA]

No big deal we just went from the low making landfall just north of the Columbia to the middle of Vancouver Island. Very minor differences overall.

 

 

GFS is so different and actually trended better for Portland... you guys are still in the game on that one.    

 

But obviously confidence would be way higher if the ECMWF was even close.

[Blizzard777]

In these Arctic boundary/CZ situations, you really can't count on any model getting it right or even being close with snow amounts. Some areas tonight will get WAY more snow than any model shows, and some will get less.

 

All part of the fun

 I already know the likely scenario that will play out over my area. Your words above are true and I have seen Federal Way actually score in these events so I do have a chance.  Let the solution play out! 

I’m ready and I’ve got my bread for whatever reason your supposed to have bread in a panic situation 

40*

36 dp

gusty south winds

.24 precipitation 

[OysterPrintout]

GFS is so different and actually trended better for Portland... you guys are still in the game on that one.    

 

But obviously confidence would be way higher if the ECMWF was even close.

 

06z needed like 5 more frames to see where it ended up but it looked more similar to 00z than this disaster.

[ShawniganLake]

Haha

2011

[SilverFallsAndrew]

looks good for scappoose!

 

I see you missed Tim's lecture on phantom snow.  

[Randyc321]

Yeah... I have seen it bust really bad in both directions in these situations.   

 

The ECMWF insists there will be snow even for the Seattle area all the way through Wednesday.

 

Years ago you would post those WRF's as bait when they were overdoing, and use them to crush hopes when they were shadowing the Central Sound but snow was imminent.  I have learned to ignore those even if they show snow and other models don't.  I can't see why Cliff Mass uses them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS provides us a path to salvaging this. The EURO provides us a very clear path towards a total bust. 

[ShawniganLake]

I have a feeling this “arctic front” is going to limp south tonight. Lame.

[Skagit Weather]

SkagitWeather you are looking good!

 

Yeah, we'll see though. That band is so narrow I could miss out entirely with just a slight shift.

[TT-SEA]

I see you missed Tim's lecture on phantom snow.

If the ECMWF from a couple days ago was right with total snow for my area through Sunday... I would have more than half a foot of snow on the ground.

 

I have none.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Years ago you would post those WRF's as bait when they were overdoing, and use them to crush hopes when they were shadowing the Central Sound but snow was imminent.  I have learned to ignore those even if they show snow and other models don't.  I can't see why Cliff Mass uses them.

 

Probably because he helped develop it. 

[Blizzard777]

 

My thoughts on general timing and snowfall amounts:

 

Bellingham: Rain turns to snow between Noon and 2PM. 2-4 inches.

 

Skagit County/San Juan Islands: Rain turns to snow 2PM and 4PM: 1-3 inches.

 

Snohomish County/Whidbey Island: Rain turning to snow showers between 4 PM and 6 PM. 2-4 inches away from the water. 1-3" near the water. Will be watching for where the convergence zone sets up for isolated higher amounts.

 

Seattle/Bainbridge Island/Kitsap: Rain turning to snow showers between 6 PM and 8 PM. 1-3 inches away from the water North of about UW. 0.5"-2" South and along the water. Highly dependent on how far the convergence zone slips South.

 

King County East of Lake Washington: 2-4" North of about I-90. 1-2" South of I-90. Rain turns to snow between 6 PM and 8 PM.

 

Pierce County/Olympia area: 0.5-1.5 inches: Best chance for snow after midnight into Monday morning.

 

Streetlight date tonight!

let the sleep deficit begin

[Deweydog]

18z will be the final nail in the ___________.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The clear message when I see this map is that this is turning into an elevation dependent event. 

 

[OysterPrintout]

18z will be the final nail in the ___________.

 

casket of Tim

[Deweydog]

[Timmy]

Do you think if we sacrificed tim, we could salvage this?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Forget about 26, there is an outside chance PDX doesn't drop below 30 this week. 

[Christensen87]

When can we expect this “WSW” to turn into a “WWA” or just cancelled in general haha

[Deweydog]

Forget about 26, there is an outside chance PDX doesn't drop below 30 this week.

Outside chance? I think that’s probably 50/50.

[MossMan]

And the mood was so much better here yesterday and early this morning. Doom has descended on the forum as cold air and snow are just hours away from many...

[GHweatherChris]

And the mood was so much better here yesterday and early this morning. Doom has descended on the forum as cold air and snow are just hours away from many...

I am ready!

[TacomaWaWx]

And the mood was so much better here yesterday and early this morning. Doom has descended on the forum as cold air and snow are just hours away from many...

yeah...this place is dumb sometimes.

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty frustrating that the euro completely changes the track of that low in a single run like that. Makes it a non factor for everyone. Literally the worst possible track. It is troubling that the GEM and the Euro are now both going down this route. At least we still have time for things to change...

[Blizzard777]

Already 15 pages. Hope you get lots of the white stuff this week.

Will be multitasking between here and the Banter thread.....Busy day ahead!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Outside chance? I think that’s probably 50/50.

 

Yeah I was originally going to say 32, but thought people would freak out on me if I did. Wouldn't surprise me if PDX low for the week is 33/34.

[bainbridgekid]

When can we expect this “WSW” to turn into a “WWA” or just cancelled in general haha

They will probably wait till the CZ forms later this afternoon so they can be more specific about what they issue where.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF for next Sunday looks very much like its 12Z run yesterday.   It does not seem too inconsistent with the overall pattern.

 

It shows close to 50 in Seattle on Sunday and into the mid and upper 50s in Willamette Valley that day.    TWL has a reasonable shot at 60 if its right. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

When can we expect this “WSW” to turn into a “WWA” or just cancelled in general haha

 

It's already turning into a WAAAAAA.

[Deweydog]

Yeah I was originally going to say 32, but thought people would freak out on me if I did. Wouldn't surprise me if PDX low for the week is 33/34.

A GFS scenario would get them into the upper 20’s but I think it’s fairly clear it’s completely off its rocker as to how much cold air will sink into the basin.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z ECMWF for next Sunday looks very much like its 12Z run yesterday.   It does not seem too inconsistent with the overall pattern.

 

It shows close to 50 in Seattle on Sunday and into the mid and upper 50s in Willamette Valley that day.    TWL has a reasonable shot at 60 if its right. 

 

Almost a lock now this ends up as our 3rd straight very warm January. Could one of the warmest for the Willamette Valley if that verifies. Interestingly there was also a major torch after the January 2005 bust. 

[Randyc321]

New HRRR at 4 p.m. today... the c-zone is set up right over Everett and Lynnwood.

 

 

Nice.  I hope is extends that far West.  it can spend a while over North Kitsap and the Island.  We have done well with that before.

 

 

[Blizzard777]

Scrolling past all model runs today.  Looking outside window mode and reading post.  
focusing on the fun playing out and webcam hopping.  
 

[Deweydog]

[Requiem]

Wow. Was feeling confident that we could get 2-5 inches on Thursday, but looks like that ai9n't happening. Thanks EURO.

[El_Nina]

I'm feeling less confident about a dusting tonight because precip looks light. I don't think it's going to drop below 33 so it would take some heavier precip to make it stick. Definitely should see some flakes though. Might drive to the top of the hill at 1000' by my house later tonight and check up there.