Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Blizzard777]

CZ zone should be gearing up

classic blue sunny skies here now with gusty south winds.

You can see the CZ signature cloud formation on my nest cam!

Doing are part South Sound 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tim's poking fun. Big deal we all do it from time to time.

[IceKing]

CZ zone should be gearing up

classic blue sunny skies here now with gusty south winds.

You can see the CZ signature cloud formation on my nest cam!

Doing are part South South Sound

Livestream your Nestcam for us

[TT-SEA]

Yes, the people responding to his trolling are so sensitive. God, what a bunch of pansies, amirite?

 

Definitely not just people being annoyed with him. No no no. A bunch of sensitive weenies around here!

So frickin sensitive.

 

You are just anxious and taking our your frustration.

[MossMan]

Friend on FB in the Oso area reporting heavy snow.

[Skagit Weather]

18z NAM looks to be just a touch further south with the CZ than the 12z.

 

No!!! Bring that northern section back up north!

[bainbridgekid]

Intense hail in both Edmonds and Lake Stevens per friends' Facebook reports.

[TacomaWaWx]

Sunny and 43 in Tacoma. 0.31" of Rain today...SW breeze 30-35mph here.

[jcmcgaffey]

That post should have no effect on you... just showing current conditions here.

to be fair I have stuck up for you in the past as I like your input and not a ton of wishcasting but I do feel like you are being a little extreme on the side of showing that this won’t happen. It feels like you are trying to prove it won’t happen and not looking at the other side as much. Just like yesterday when the Mets are saying it will happen and you are saying the models show it won’t. You don’t try to figure out why they say it will but just keep trying to show maps that say it won’t even if they are not realistic maps. Ps: I am not saying it will or won’t with this post just observations:)

[TT-SEA]

Another classic. 2 for 2. Can he make it 3 for 3?

Sure.

[TacomaWaWx]

Radar over the strait of Georgia and southern Vancouver island filling in nicely along with a C-zone setting up near shoreline.

[Chewbacca Defense]

To put it simply: KBLI is the red line, CYWL is the blue line. The pressure at the time of this taking at Bellingham was 1006.5 (furthest plot on the left) and the pressure for Williams Lake was a hair under 1012.5. Subtract those and you get the pressure difference, or gradient, which was -6mb at the time.

 

The link below is the official reading from NWS. It's not updated as frequently as the graph is, but definitely easier to read.

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/dients.php

 

 

Ok, so is the rest of the information basically superfluous?  And thank you for the link, and it looks like the chart on that link reads bottom (oldest) to top (newest)?  I am seeing BLI-YWL 12/10 (10Z today) being at -6.4 and 12Z being -9.5?  Am I on track here?

 

Thank you for the assistance.  There have been several times that I would look at the graph, think I understand it then come on here and someone will be reporting completely different values than what I saw...

[Perturbed Member]

News alert... the 12Z EPS mean and the control run show the position of the low to be up near Vancouver Island on Thursday.

 

EPS mean:

 

 

Control run...

 

 

Previous EPS average had it coming in a bit north of the Columbia if I recall. Quite a dramatic change for all or most of the EPS members to flip like that.

[TT-SEA]

to be fair I have stuck up for you in the past as I like your input and not a ton of wishcasting but I do feel like you are being a little extreme on the side of showing that this won’t happen. It feels like you are trying to prove it won’t happen and not looking at the other side as much. Just like yesterday when the Mets are saying it will happen and you are saying the models show it won’t. You don’t try to figure out why they say it will but just keep trying to show maps that say it won’t even if they are not realistic maps.

Stupid.

 

I said to Jim last night that a blend might work out. I have been positive for the areas that I think have a good chance. Not going out of my way to say anything bad just to say it.

 

I posted the WRF and the ECMWF maps. What else are we going to use?   I never said this will not happen at all.

 

But hey... attack the guy posting the snow maps. If the ECMWF is bad then it's really me saying it's bad.

 

I have no idea why the mets were so aggressive. I don't know what they were thinking.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 38! Splat test confirmed!

[Requiem]

Previous EPS average had it coming in a bit north of the Columbia if I recall. Quite a dramatic change for all or most of the EPS members to flip like that.

 

Seems like an oddly unrealistic flip...

[snow_wizard]

The million dollar question is can we possibly end up with as bad of an outcome as depicted on the 12z ECMWF.  Probably the most dramatic model change I have seen at this time frame for that model in years.  It is worse on literally every aspect of this.  We'll see how the 18z GFS and the 0z runs look tonight.

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

It's so funny how sensitive people are to Tim's jokes and reality posts. The butthurt is so high. I laugh Everytime.

You are calm, composed, collected. A wise, old sage. You have the perfect mix of experience, intellect, and perpetual equanimity. We, on the other hand, are fools. While reading the forum, you sometimes ask God, “Why did you make me so smart and others so dumb?” But he never replies, so you’re left standing in amazement of your greatness and just slightly erect at the wonder of it all..

[TT-SEA]

Needing the last word?

 

That's 3 for 3 folks! He's on a roll today!

Interesting

[HighlandExperience]

The million dollar question is can we possibly end up with as bad of an outcome as depicted on the 12z ECMWF.  Probably the most dramatic model change I have seen at this time frame for that model in years.  It is worse on literally every aspect of this.  We'll see how the 18z GFS and the 0z runs look tonight.

 

The ECMWF has been pretty schzio lately. Last night it showed non stop light snow and amazing snowy weather towards the end of the week. Not sure we can trust it at this point. 

[Requiem]

The million dollar question is can we possibly end up with as bad of an outcome as depicted on the 12z ECMWF.  Probably the most dramatic model change I have seen at this time frame for that model in years.  It is worse on literally every aspect of this.  We'll see how the 18z GFS and the 0z runs look tonight.

 

Even that outcome gives Portland a sloppy transition event a la January 2012, so that's decent and such a weirdly dramatic flip that I can't help but wonder if models even have a handle on where this storm will go.

[snow_wizard]

Previous EPS average had it coming in a bit north of the Columbia if I recall. Quite a dramatic change for all or most of the EPS members to flip like that.

 

Right now it looks like we are in trouble.  Thank goodness we will probably get another try at this later in the winter.  At least many of us should see something over the next few days.

[Blizzard777]

Livestream your Nestcam for us

Never looked into doing this but perhaps someday.

 

[Perturbed Member]

Seems like an oddly unrealistic flip...

 

Several models had gone back and forth from showing this kind of track before so it isn't completely out of the blue. Right now the Euro, UKMET and GEM are in a similar boat showing a non event track for most of us. GFS ensembles look pretty good right now. Hopefully the euro will cave to the GFS in the way it did in Feb 2019 for that low going south!

 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF has been pretty schzio lately. Last night it showed non stop light snow and amazing snowy weather towards the end of the week. Not sure we can trust it at this point. 

 

I agree.  We need to see some more runs of other models.

[TT-SEA]

The million dollar question is can we possibly end up with as bad of an outcome as depicted on the 12z ECMWF. Probably the most dramatic model change I have seen at this time frame for that model in years. It is worse on literally every aspect of this. We'll see how the 18z GFS and the 0z runs look tonight.

I remember seeing the ECMWF changing details for several events and then changing back on the next run... probably when I was tracking nice days in the summer. But it's happened.

[ShawniganLake]

40F with some drizzle here. The breezy SW winds are subsiding

[Requiem]

Several models had gone back and forth from showing this kind of track before so it isn't completely out of the blue. Right now the Euro, UKMET and GEM are in a similar boat showing a non event track for most of us. GFS ensembles look pretty good right now. Hopefully the euro will cave to the GFS in the way it did in Feb 2019 for that low going south!

 

 

I'm hardly looking at GEM because it's been waffling so dang much the past week or two-- but this run is still better for us than a few runs ago. But EURO made a really unnerving turn, and I can't see how the ensembles suddenly flipped that fast either.

[Requiem]

NAM has no grasp on the midweek low, but it's pretty far south.

[The Swamp]

I love the look of the satellite picture.  I have a feeling there is going to be a massive CV somewhere up north that just nukes them. 6-10" of snow.

[HoodCanalBridge]

Pretty cool video from Skunk Bay Weather (Camera in North Kitsap looking across at South Whidbey) showing the convergence zone:

 

Looking North toward the mouth of the Hood Canal it looks like blue skies at the moment.

[MossMan]

JAYA!

[Chewbacca Defense]

LOL thought I just saw a large snowflake swirling around in a wind eddy outside my window but it turns out it was just schmutz on my glasses.  

 

Looks like the pressure has bottomed out at my house after consistently dropping since yesterday, been at 29.45 for about 45 minutes now.  Wind has also gone calm after being out of the South all morning.

[Perturbed Member]

Right now it looks like we are in trouble.  Thank goodness we will probably get another try at this later in the winter.  At least many of us should see something over the next few days.

 

Yeah it looks like that midweek event is on life support now but I'll waive the white flag if the GFS caves. GEFS looks pretty good and the GFS has showed  similar track for several runs in a row. 

[TacomaWaWx]

LOL thought I just saw a large snowflake swirling around in a wind eddy outside my window but it turns out it was just schmutz on my glasses.  

 

Looks like the pressure has bottomed out at my house after consistently dropping since yesterday, been at 29.45 for about 45 minutes now.  Wind has also gone calm after being out of the South all morning.

Something's coming...

[bainbridgekid]

NAM has no grasp on the midweek low, but it's pretty far south.

Sure is. Actually jumped South of the 12z.

 

[TT-SEA]

My Coug son was first in line when the pass re-opened... he is now over the pass and making slow progress towards Pullman.

[kokaneekidz]

Years ago you would post those WRF's as bait when they were overdoing, and use them to crush hopes when they were shadowing the Central Sound but snow was imminent. I have learned to ignore those even if they show snow and other models don't. I can't see why Cliff Mass uses them.

He utilizes them because he is employed by the university of Washington. They run the computations on campus for those.... Fwiw

[kokaneekidz]

I love the look of the satellite picture. I have a feeling there is going to be a massive CV somewhere up north that just nukes them. 6-10" of snow.

I concur. V for victory. Juiced up atmosphere

[umadbro]

You are calm, composed, collected. A wise, old sage. You have the perfect mix of experience, intellect, and perpetual equanimity. We, on the other hand, are fools. While reading the forum, you sometimes ask God, “Why did you make me so smart and others so dumb?” But he never replies, so you’re left standing in amazement of your greatness and just slightly erect at the wonder of it all..

That about sums it up!

 

Did we just become best friends?