Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This reminds me of a tamer December 1990. That day of the big arctic front was much like today. There were hail showers and heavy rain showers that fueled the front.

 

If that was a lion today is a prenatal kitten. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Next after Chilliwack it'll be Abbotsford then Bellingham. Roughly 2pm seems about right for Bellingham still.

[Randyc321]

I have not randomly changed to pessimistic.   The ECMWF and WRF changed.   I don't have much else to go on.  I am not going to sit here and make up stuff just to make people feel better.     There is no point in that.   Other people do that... look to them for that kind of stuff.   That is never going to be me. 

 

But I sure as hell am not being negative just to be negative.   I have made literally hundreds of positive posts based on genuinely positive things I have seen.   Those seem to be universally ignored by some people.       

 

 

Time for some jocularity!   

 

Can you guess how many times the above sentiment was written, but in different words?  Over 40,000 posts, it must have been offered as a defense at least 5000 times.

 

Tim-  This reply could be copied and pasted to save you time.  You will need to post like this later again.

 

   

[TT-SEA]

Time for some jocularity!

 

Can you guess how many times the above sentiment was written, but in different words? Over 40,000 posts, it must have been offered as a defense at least 5000 times.

 

Tim- This reply could be copied and pasted to save you time. You will need to post like this later again.

 

No doubt.

 

If people don't want the information then ignore it. I obviously know nothing.

[wxmet]

NAM 3KM 18z has a strong C-zone developing over the metro tonight:

 

[Cloud]

There are definite temps differences under the CZ. It’s 38 in Millcreek and 44 in Seattle.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If that was a lion today is a prenatal kitten.

 

The forecast was 1-3 inches and breezy north winds lol.

[MikeInEverett]

Move north just 2 miles please.

[Requiem]

ICON is further south-- not a good run for PDX anyways but still further south fwiw

[ShawniganLake]

A few flakes mixing into the rain here 38F on the backside of that precip band crossing the south of Vancouver Island . Wind has shifted to the nw

[TacomaWaWx]

Move north just 2 miles please.

you want it over your house in a few hours not now.

[TT-SEA]

If the ECMWF has a handle on the situation... then the current c-zone north of Seattle will slip south a little and then lift north later this afternoon and then merge with the northern band and that sink south down to about I-90 late tonight.    Then that band will fade another one band will form up around Everett and that one will fade by morning and light snow will be coming up from the SW into King County at that time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 37!!!

[jakerepp]

Phone currently says 37 in Lynnwood...and 43 in Bellingham.

Hmmmm

[bainbridgekid]

Next after Chilliwack it'll be Abbotsford then Bellingham. Roughly 2pm seems about right for Bellingham still.

Think it'll take a little longer than that to reach Bellingham. Closer to 3-4 I think.

[bainbridgekid]

If the ECMWF has a handle on the situation... then the current c-zone north of Seattle will slip south a little and then lift north later this afternoon and then merge with the northern band and that sink south down to about I-90 late tonight.    Then that band will fade another one band will form up around Everett and that one will fade by morning and light snow will be coming up from the SW into King County at that time.

Yeah going to be pretty chaotic tracking the CZ's over the next 12 hours.

 

Lot of factors at play.

[Blizzard777]

South winds now gusting 35 mph

43*

[TT-SEA]

Phone currently says 37 in Lynnwood...and 43 in Bellingham.

Hmmmm

Temps are being lowered directly as a result of the c-zone. That is not arctic air on the north side. This is just a traditional c-zone that happens all year long with rain after a departing low.

[Deweydog]

The Euro EXPOSED!!!!

[Front Ranger]

1PM upper level temps put 850mb at -5c for most of Western WA while 925mb sits at 0c.

 

The fabled ECMWF put 925s at 2c and 850s at -3c/-4c at this time. I think it forgot it's own +3 degree bias!!

 

   

[Blizzard777]

Snow echos ......so close yet so far

[TigerWoodsLibido]

48/42 so far for a 45 mean. Roughly a +5 departure.

[bainbridgekid]

Radar filling in like crazy around and West of Bellingham. Could get crazy there in a couple hours if that hangs around as outflow arrives.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heavy snow falling now. Still 37. lol

[TT-SEA]

Yeah going to be pretty chaotic tracking the CZ's over the next 12 hours.

 

Lot of factors at play.

 

 

Ironically... places in far SW King County could finally get in on some snow when it comes up from the southwest and not from the c-zone reaching down there.   At least that is what the ECMWF shows.   That is not my official prediction.    

[Requiem]

Does anyone have any access to the 18Z EURO? Could be very valuable in determining the future of this potential midweek system.

[HighlandExperience]

Radar filling in like crazy around and West of Bellingham. Could get crazy there in a couple hours if that hangs around as outflow arrives.

Wow really is blowing up over there. Hopefully it can switch to snow soon there.

[TT-SEA]

1PM upper level temps put 850mb at -5c for most of Western WA while 925mb sits at 0c.

 

The fabled ECMWF put 925s at 2c and 850s at -3c/-4c at this time. I think it forgot it's own +3 degree bias!!

 

 

I have no idea if it has a bias at the 850mb level or 925mb level.   I have never noticed that.   Could be timing today as well.

 

It does have a cool bias generally when translating the upper level temps to surface temps.

[bainbridgekid]

Does anyone have any access to the 18Z EURO? Could be very valuable in determining the future of this potential midweek system.

It doesn't come out till about 4:00, but there are several members here with access to it.

[TT-SEA]

Does anyone have any access to the 18Z EURO? Could be very valuable in determining the future of this potential midweek system.

 

 

It does not come out until around 4 p.m.

[Blizzard777]

Need someone to poor water over my iPad!  Its beginning to overheat from me gathering data and info!!!!

[seattleweatherguy]

Sticking to grass

[kokaneekidz]

Just went thru Kingsgate (NE160th) on 405 it is coming down cats and dogs. Graupel variety. Odd since the klondike airmass hasn't even passed Sumas border crossing yet. GOTTA LUV THE CZ!!!

[TT-SEA]

Here is a good camera for Vancouver BC... faces west and shows the sky.   I have used this site for years.

 

http://katkam.ca/

 

 

Live view...

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Lots of rain right now. But still mild.

[Deweydog]

It’s running!!!

[wxmet]

Short Term Forecast

National Weather Service Seattle WA
132 PM PST Sun Jan 12 2020

PZZ135-WAZ507-555-556-558-559-122345-
Puget Sound and Hood Canal-Everett and Vicinity-
East Puget Sound Lowlands-Bellevue and Vicinity-
Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-
132 PM PST Sun Jan 12 2020

.NOW...
A strong Puget Sound Convergence Zone will bring locally heavy
rain to southern Snohomish and northern King counties for the
next hour or two. Snow could mix with the rain in places with
brief slushy accumulations possible. Small hail or graupel is also
possible.

[TT-SEA]

Sticking to grass

 

C-zone folks get the benefit of the c-zone lowering temps before the real cold arrives!  

 

C-zones are very effective at dropping the temperature way lower than it is to the north and south.   I have seen it happen here hundreds of times.

[TT-SEA]

Looking at the west side of the c-zone... it appears this one might starting shifting east soon.  

[MikeBC]

Hope BC is already at 24F. Looks like the arctic front is colder than expected as the observations in the north of the front were a few degrees colder for timing of the forecast.