Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[TT-SEA]

Ugh... Bellingham missed the memo about the +3 degree bias.

That is true! Good point.

 

So that actually makes me think it is too slow. No joke.

[TT-SEA]

Literally no one has said it is.

Hawks said the ECMWF was too slow.

 

And I actually think he was right.

[Timmy Supercell]

Gusty with wet snow, it's building up to do something!

[bainbridgekid]

Everett down to 34 without any precip falling

I do believe it is about to start snowing here.

[Cloud]

I think BFI to Issaquah could get in on the action late this evening.

 

I am basing that specifically on the ECMWF.

You and the Euro has spoken so it shall be. Good news for me.

[MossMan]

Really coming down now! Temp down to 34.

[Requiem]

Gusty westerly winds here now.

[MikeBC]

The arctic front is stalling in the west of Chilliwack. It should be able to move faster once the system moves out of the Fraser Valley. There is a bunch of precipitation on the way from Naniamo, BC. The front and the moist airmass might collide in the lower mainland and Whatcom in a couple of hours 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

If by "duke it out" you mean more moisture, I agree!  As it is now, I am seeing the sky brighten to the west, and even as I am typing this I see a small patch of blue sky.  

 

I mean an westward-heading arctic front colliding with an eastward-heading onshore wind. All that air has to go someplace, and that someplace is up. In other words, lift. Lift air and it expands, expand air and it cools and condenses moisture. Instant snowstorm. At least two short-range, high-res models are now forecasting this. Another model is saying this should happen but Whatcom will get mostly skunked by the action, so nothing's a sure thing.

 

Don't get too worked up about the blue holes. That the current round of precip would fizzle out was predicted by those models as well. Any convergence-based activity should start sometime around 7 or 8 pm, if the models verify.

[TT-SEA]

You and the Euro has spoken so it shall be. Good news for me.

I have seen all the models be wrong and way more snow than anyone thought. Could happen. It would just have to be a surprise and sometimes nature does that.

[Deweydog]

Physics generally suggest models will be a bit slow with low level cold air advection. I doubt they will ever be able to account for every single boundary layer nuance on a micro level, and those nuances generally slow its progression rather than accelerate it. This of course is most applicable in continental situations.

 

Of course the opposite is the case with low level cold situations when it’s well entrenched.

 

Just food for thought for the newbs and Josh.

[bainbridgekid]

Converging Convergence Zones!

 

I do believe it is about to start snowing here in South Everett.

[GHweatherChris]

Just had a fun 5 minute moderate snow shower roll through, top of my truck got whiteish.

[GHweatherChris]

Moisture building up a notch offshore.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

46F with some light rain. Got up to 49F, barely keeping it below 50F so that's nice.

 

Assuming every day hits 40F for the rest of the month, it will be the first time that Dec-Jan has failed to record a high temp below 40F since Dec-Jan 33-34.

 

That one also had a bush league cold wave at the end of Nov with a couple of sub-40 highs.  If we don't have more than the 1 we had on Nov 30, then this will undisputedly be the worst cold season since I have lived in Oregon and one of EUG's worst cold seasons of all time.

 

I refuse to call it winter now.  It's just fallspring here most years.

[fubario]

I asked him if he had reached wet roads yet... or if there was still snow on the road.

 

That was his response.   He was just answering my question.

 

He loves snow and thinks weather forums are an absolute goofy waste of time.   He is still my son though.  

Well, we do want our kids to be better than us, right?

[Chewbacca Defense]

I mean an westward-heading arctic front colliding with an eastward-heading onshore wind. All that air has to go someplace, and that someplace is up. In other words, lift. Lift air and it expands, expand air and it cools and condenses moisture. Instant snowstorm. At least two short-range, high-res models are now forecasting this. Another model is saying this should happen but Whatcom will get mostly skunked by the action, so nothing's a sure thing.

 

Don't get too worked up about the blue holes. That the current round of precip would fizzle out was predicted by those models as well. Any convergence-based activity should start sometime around 7 or 8 pm, if the models verify.

Ok, sounds good, I've been working today so I haven't really paid attention to the models, just checking Wunderground and looking out the window periodically...

[TT-SEA]

Converging Convergence Zones!

 

I do believe it is about to start snowing here in South Everett.

 

WUNIDS_map (1).gif

 

 

If the ECMWF has a handle on the situation... then the current c-zone north of Seattle will slip south a little and then lift north later this afternoon and then merge with the northern band and that sink south down to about I-90 late tonight.    Then that band will fade another one band will form up around Everett and that one will fade by morning and light snow will be coming up from the SW into King County at that time.

 

 

ECMWF showed that happening.  

[Blizzard777]

39*

[MossMan]

Now 33 and ground turning white.

[HighlandExperience]

39*

Sun going down soon. Now we need moisture

[TT-SEA]

Sun going down soon. Now we need moisture

It was so hot today... glad the sun is finally going down. Now we have a chance.

[MikeInEverett]

Been a drizzle storm here for the last hour or so. Sitting at 33 right now. Looks like some more action is coming soon though.

[runninthruda206]

Nothing here yet - udist

[MossMan]

White goodness!

[TT-SEA]

Here are the next 3 hours based on the WRF... 

 

 

 

 

Precip is now totally done from Seattle northward until Wednesday night.   Sorry to the folks up there... WRF has spoken.   Precip will end in the next minute or so.  

 

The WRF is a complete joke with snow.

[FroYoBro]

Bellingham is down to 39!

[TT-SEA]

Just using precip map... here is what the ECMWF thinks will happen in the next 3 hours.  

 

 

 

Could it be more wrong?   Never trust the ECMWF.  

 

[Esquimalt]

Just using precip map... here is what the ECMWF thinks will happen in the next 3 hours.

 

 

 

Could it be more wrong? Never trust the ECMWF.

 

Can you please post the 18 Z total snow?

[bainbridgekid]

Just using precip map... here is what the ECMWF thinks will happen in the next 3 hours.  

 

 

 

Could it be more wrong?   Never trust the ECMWF.  

 

That's extraordinary. Couldn't draw the radar any better to match up.

[TT-SEA]

Can you please post the 18 Z total snow?

 

24-hour snow total through tomorrow morning...

 

[MikeInEverett]

CZ right over me but precip just isn’t heavy enough right now

[TT-SEA]

Total snow from Monday morning through Tuesday morning.  

 

[bainbridgekid]

24-hour snow total through tomorrow morning...

 

Does it show that snow around North Seattle falling in the next couple hours or later this evening?

[SouthHillFrosty]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24-hour snow total through tomorrow morning...

 

 

Shows a decent amount of snow here. 

[TT-SEA]

Does it show that snow around North Seattle falling in the next couple hours or later this evening?

 

 

Looks like most of it comes late this evening and little more before dawn.

[MossMan]

Down to 32.

[bainbridgekid]

Looks like most of it comes late this evening and little more before dawn.

Excellent. Good to have it wait till temperatures fall enough to make it count.

[TT-SEA]

For those tracking the Thursday storm... the 18Z ECMWF goes out to 90 hours on the surface maps and the low is a little farther north on the 18Z run at that time compared to the 12Z run.