June 2023 Observations & Discussions

[Tom]

58 minutes ago, Andie said:

Well, HERE we go! 
 

7 straight days at or over 100.   Could only get 6 on my screen.  So much for that lovely last month.  
Breaks over! 

Same here...the fun is over as there is nothing but 100's in the forecast next 10 days, even creeping up to 107F by Father's Day...it was a matter of time...

[james1976]

Lot of wild fire smoke today. It's gotten thicker as the day has progressed. It's actually made it down to the ground this time and you can smell it. Basically looks cloudy with the sun barely peaking through.

[Andie]

28 minutes ago, Tom said:

Same here...the fun is over as there is nothing but 100's in the forecast next 10 days, even creeping up to 107F by Father's Day...it was a matter of time...

I expect it in Phoenix.  My husband is from Tucson. It gets hot there but it’s higher in elevation.
Phoenix is a whole different hot from hell in that bowl.  No thanks.  

[gabel23]

8 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Not sure about the rest of the areas, but is anyone else noticing how little wind we have for weeks now?  Our area usually has a lot of wind just based on our geography. 

Thought the same thing! I’ll take it, normally I have to wrap my tomato cages to help protect from the wind but didn’t this year! Calm for sure

[james1976]

1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Lot of wild fire smoke today. It's gotten thicker as the day has progressed. It's actually made it down to the ground this time and you can smell it. Basically looks cloudy with the sun barely peaking through.

And also more of a foggy look. Not just hazy. Pretty crazy. Originally today was supposed to be sunny and low 90s but the smoke has kept temps in the low 80s.

[CentralNebWeather]

Windless days continue. So odd. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Potential for more rain in the next 3 days. Keep it coming. 

[Clinton]

Models continue to look good for some beneficial rainfall in the KC area Saturday night.

[Clinton]

The 0z runs of the GFS and UKMET show heavy rains in the KC area Saturday night while the Euro and Canadian seem a bit skeptical.  However looking at the GEFS and EPS I feel good about my chances of some nice rains.  EAX also seems optimistic.

[Clinton]

Oklahoma peeps could see an active weather day, moderate risk issued.

 SPC AC 150601

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0101 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS
   PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widespread severe storms associated with damaging wind gusts, large
   hail and a few tornadoes are expected today across parts of the
   southern and central Plains. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
   diameter and wind gusts above 70 knots will be likely along the more
   intense parts of a fast-moving line of storms. A severe threat is
   also expected to develop in parts of the Southeast, and in parts of
   the Ohio Valley.

   ...Significant Severe Weather Event Expected Today Across Parts of
   the Southern and Central Plains...

   ...Southern and Central Plains...
   A shortwave trough will move into the central U.S. today, as an
   associated 80 to 95 knot upper-level jet moves into the southern
   Plains. Ahead of the jet max, a moist and very unstable airmass will
   be in place from parts of central and north Texas into western
   Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle. At the surface, a low will
   deepen across the southern High Plains as a cold front moves
   southward through the central High Plains. Ahead of the front,
   surface heating and increasing low-level convergence will likely
   result in convective initiation early this afternoon.  Storms will
   rapidly increase in coverage along an axis of strong instability
   from southwest Kansas south-southeastward across the far
   northeastern Texas Panhandle and into western Oklahoma. As storms
   grow upscale, MCS development is expected to occur late this
   afternoon and be maintained through the evening.

   By midday, a narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture is
   forecast from northwest Texas extending north-northwestward into
   southwest Kansas. MLCAPE is forecast to reach the 3000 to 4500 J/Kg
   range by mid afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings have low
   to mid-level lapse rates approaching 9.0 C/km. This potent
   thermodynamic environment will be augmented by an increase of
   deep-layer shear throughout the day, as an upper-level jet moves in
   from the west-southwest. Upon approach, an increase in large-scale
   ascent will be coupled with strengthening deep-layer shear. RAP
   forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear could reach 60 to 70
   knots along the instability axis, which will be very favorable for
   severe storms.

   The current thinking is that cells will first initiate in the early
   afternoon, with supercells forming rather quickly. A small cluster
   is expected to rapidly expand during the mid afternoon, as a line of
   supercells develops. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in
   diameter, along with a tornado threat will be possible with the more
   intense supercells. As the convective cluster grows upscale in the
   mid to late afternoon, a Derecho will become possible as an
   organized severe line segment moves southeastward across the
   southern Plains. Wind gusts ahead of the more intense parts of the
   line will likely be greater than 70 knots. A few tornadoes will be
   possible, along with a continued threat for large hail from late
   afternoon into the evening. The MCS, associated with a potential for
   damaging wind gusts, could move into the Ark-La-Tex by mid to late
   evening, and into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley during the
   overnight period.

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 73/50 there was no rain fall and 43% of possible sunshine. There were 3 HDD’s and 0 CDD’s. For the month Grand Rapids, Holland and Lansing now have a below average mean for June. Muskegon is still above average.

The overnight low in MBY was 51 and at the current time it is 52 with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is now up to 80/58 the record high of 97 was set way back in 1894 the record low of 43 was set in 1999. The record rain fall amount of 2.51” fell in 2010.

There is a 40% chance of showers today then dry until mid week next week. Today should be the last of the cool mid-June days as it looks to warm up over the weekend and stay warm until Wednesday at least. There is also a better chance of some rain late next week.

[Andie]

Just heard an interview from a Kansas farmer experiencing their worst harvest in recorded history. His harvest is a total bust.   
Meantime Russia is having an exceptional harvest. 
Just an example of weather/climate is history.  

[chescowxman]

Low temperatures last night continued to run about 5 degrees below seasonal averages with most spots in the mid 50's. High temperatures over the next week look to remain slightly below normal levels across Chester County as our chilly spring continues. Shower chances increase again tomorrow PM into Saturday with more showers possible by Monday night as we continue to try to cut into our rainfall deficit.

Records for today: High 97 (1945) / Low 44 (1933) / Rain 2.80" (1908)

[hawkstwelve]

10-day precip anomaly from the ECMWF continues to not look too good for a large portion of the Midwest, unfortunately. Plains states might start making up for some deficits and the SE continues to look pretty wet.

Hopefully as the ridge builds into Texas over the next week we can start getting some more ridge riding storms over the top that can push more easily into the Midwest/eastern corn belt. It'd also help if we could ever fully kick out the ridge that seems to just love to sit over Ontario so far this season. There are some slight signs as we get towards the end of June but it's still a ways out. Cross your fingers, Midwest folks. 

[CentralNebWeather]

[hawkstwelve]

In the meantime, looking like a hot one here today with highs in the low/mid 90s. Already up to 82.

We have a shot at some thunderstorms tomorrow night. Shear looks pretty meager so probably none of the severe type, which seems to be a theme so far this season. Hopefully we can still get some decent boomers though that can tap into the 1.5+ inches of precipitable water in the atmosphere and drop some good rains. 

[Andie]

We’re sitting at 89* with round 2 of some heavy thunderstorms forecast for this evening.   
 

[westMJim]

It is now cloudy and a cool mid June afternoon. The temperature has now fallen down to 70 and it feel very cool out side at this time.

[westMJim]

Boy it is a cool mid June day in much of northern Michigan. There are a lot of mid afternoon temperatures in the mid 40's with fog along Lake Superior. And even away from the lake locations in the UP and in norther lower Michigan are only in the low to mid 50's 

[james1976]

Back door cold front cleared out some of the smoke. Still a bit hazy but nothing like yesterday where we had visibility under 2 miles. Much cooler today as well. Currently 69°

[Minny_Weather]

A lovely 82*F dew point in Galveston, TX currently. Makes the 77*F dew point in Houston seem like a real winner.

[Andie]

Ya gotta love!   
Its really how we weed out people that just think they want to live here. They usually head for Colorado.  

We’re under a tornado watch until 10pm.   Overcast and Humidity pretty good, 59%, temp 93*  

That forecast should shake a few newbies up.  

[westMJim]

That was one strong mid June cold front that came thru. It is now 5:08 and the temperature is now down to 63 here in MBY for a very cool mid June early evening.

[Minny_Weather]

5 minutes ago, Andie said:

Ya gotta love!   
Its really how we weed out people that just think they want to live here. They usually head for Colorado.  

We’re under a tornado watch until 10pm.   Overcast and Humidity pretty good, 59%, temp 93*  

That forecast should shake a few newbies up.  

The issue, too, is that this type of heat doesn't really just go away. Once it starts, it doesn't end until the first front reaches in September. The early start to the death ridge just means it'll be a long and miserable summer for the eastern half of Texas.

[Minny_Weather]

50 minutes ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

A lovely 82*F dew point in Galveston, TX currently. Makes the 77*F dew point in Houston seem like a real winner.

Still 82*F on the dew point. It's ridiculous seeing a heat index that is 20 degrees higher than the actual temperature, but that is what it is right now.

[Andie]

For all the hype they are now stating the storms/rain will bring west of Dallas and east of me.  
Skunked again.  

[Andie]

4 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

The issue, too, is that this type of heat doesn't really just go away. Once it starts, it doesn't end until the first front reaches in September. The early start to the death ridge just means it'll be a long and miserable summer for the eastern half of Texas.

Thank heaven I’m not in east Texas.  
I’m considered North Central.  Our elevation is higher than Dallas who gets more rain.  
Tonight the Panhandle town of Perrytown is basically gone.  
A tornado remained on the ground for 20 minutes as it crawled over the farming/ranching town.  
This is really bad.  
Tornado warnings are all over the place yet the air outside SW of Fort Worth if dry. So odd. 

[Clinton]

This is just gross, over 8 inches below normal in mby over the last 90 days.

[OttumwaSnomow]

56 minutes ago, Clinton said:

This is just gross, over 8 inches below normal in mby over the last 90 days.

I should have about 13.5"  in past 90 days. I have 5.35". So Im over a 8 inch deficit in 90 days. The vast majority  of that more than 8 inch deficit  has come since April 22nd probably  over 7 inch shortfall in  52 days!!!! 

[OKwx2k4]

21 hours ago, Andie said:

Just heard an interview from a Kansas farmer experiencing their worst harvest in recorded history. His harvest is a total bust.   
Meantime Russia is having an exceptional harvest. 
Just an example of weather/climate is history.  

Global climate flip. At least where I'm observing or my opinion. Temporary or multidecadal is my question.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 75/59. A strong cold front came through and dropped the temperatures from that high of 75 to the upper 50’s by late afternoon. There was a total of 0.02” of rain fall and 20% of possible sunshine. The overnight low this morning is 55. For today the average H/L is 80/59 the record high of 96 was set in 1952 and the record low of 39 was set in 1917 and 1947. The record rain fall amount of 2.23” fell in 1920.

It will remain dry and a big warm up starts this weekend and it looks like there will be high in the mid to upper 80’s and lows in the lower 60’s for most of next week. A nice and warm start to calendar summer.

[westMJim]

We now are halfway through June 2023 and it is time to see where we stand so far for this month. At Grand Rapids the mean so far is 65.9 that is a departure of -1.0. the high for the month so far is 91 and the low is 47. There has only been 0.21” of rain fall. At Muskegon the mean is 65.6 that is +0.1 the high there so far is 93 and the low is 45 they have had 0.45” of rain fall. At Holland the mean is 65.1 that is -1.0 the high so far is 91 and the low is 47. They have had 0.49” of rain fall. At Lansing the mean there is 65.5 that is a departure of -0.6 and they only have had 0.15” of rain fall so far. To the east at Detroit the mean there is 66.5 a departure of -1.0 and they have had 1.35” of rain fall. At Flint the mean is 62.7 with 0.41” of rain fall at Saginaw their mean is 64.3 and they have recorded 0.31” of rain. To the north Alpena has a mean of 60.8 a departure of -0.4 and 0.74” of rain. At Houghton Lake the mean there is 59.9 a departure of -2.3 and 0.50” of rain fall. And UP at the Sault the mean is 61.3 +2.0 and they have had 1.72” of rain fall. So far this month all of Michigan is dry and most locations are cooler than average. It looks to warm up for a while so most areas will end up warmer than average.

[Tom]

Hello from the Great state of Texas!  I left the Valley of the Sun yesterday morning around 7:30 and drove non-stop to Amarillo, TX that took just under 10 hours.  I'll post a cool video clip of the wall of dust that got kicked up from the outflow boundary from the monster severe storms that hit the TX Panhandle. 

It is a cool 55F this morning and actually kinda feels very comfy outside and I didn't expect to feel the low DP's lower for TX standards which are in the low 50's right now.  Our next stop is Branson, MO and plan on staying there a couple nights (weather permitting).  

Oh, I stopped and picked up an 18 oz Steak at the The Big Texan right off of I-40, and boy, that place is massive and was packed to the max!  I read that this place delivers over 550,000 lbs of Beef!  That's a lot of cattle!  Have a great Friday!

[Tom]

Here is the vid showing the wall of dust crossing the highway with Amarillo, TX just a few miles away…it got really gusty (50mph) as we got into town and a tint of brownish color in the air.  The smell of cattle farms was evident!  It certainly felt like I was in Texas.

 

 

 

 

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

I know many on here can certainly be concerned about drought and i dont mean to be a echo bird.  But my local situation  is now critical.  Because  it basically  stopped raining  April 21st.  These numbers are since  then. I have 2.17" but shockingly drakesville  Iowa to my south only has 1.02 since April 22.  How can anything  grow? Or even live?   Other than the area around  Omaha  no where else compares  to this idiotic  place.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Clinton]

42 minutes ago, Tom said:

Hello from the Great state of Texas!  I left the Valley of the Sun yesterday morning around 7:30 and drove non-stop to Amarillo, TX that took just under 10 hours.  I'll post a cool video clip of the wall of dust that got kicked up from the outflow boundary from the monster severe storms that hit the TX Panhandle. 

It is a cool 55F this morning and actually kinda feels very comfy outside and I didn't expect to feel the low DP's lower for TX standards which are in the low 50's right now.  Our next stop is Branson, MO and plan on staying there a couple nights (weather permitting).  

Oh, I stopped and picked up an 18 oz Steak at the The Big Texan right off of I-40, and boy, that place is massive and was packed to the max!  I read that this place delivers over 550,000 lbs of Beef!  That's a lot of cattle!  Have a great Friday!

Have a great time in Branson.  Be sure to check out table rock lake while your there.  It's beautiful!

[Tom]

25 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Have a great time in Branson.  Be sure to check out table rock lake while your there.  It's beautiful!

Would it be best to get a place on the east side of the lake?  One of the coves by Indian Point and near Moonshine Beach is what I'm thinking.  Thoughts?

[james1976]

@Tom you on your way back to Chicago? Have a great trip!

[chescowxman]

Some showers and a couple t-storms already starting to pop both to the West and SE of Chester County PA. We should see this activity ramp up over the next couple hours. Most models have at least 0.25" with the NAM showing almost an inch for those lucky spots that get underneath one of the storms.

Tomorrow looks nice with slightly below normal temps in the upper 70's. This chilly start to June is the 17th coldest first half of the month across 130 years of records for here in Chester County!

Records for today: High 97 (1957) / Low 43 (1961) / 2.60" (1916)