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June 2023 Observations & Discussions


westMJim

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As of this am, DTX remained bullish on the potential. Hopefully the trend holds. We NEED this bigly

The aforementioned Canadian wave is expected to become cut off from
the northern stream as it drops into the western Great Lakes on
Sunday, deepening considerably through the early week as it slowly
spins across the region before becoming incorporated into the
subtropical jet. All signs currently point to a widespread
beneficial rain some time between late Sunday and Monday when the
resultant surface low swings northward from the Ohio Valley.
Latest 00z operational runs offer a respectable swath of QPF (1"+)
in the vicinity but vary considerably regarding its placement.
Showery unsettled conditions look to linger into Tuesday as the
upper low passes overhead.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NOAA published this today. No surprises   

“There is an 84% chance of greater than a moderate strength El Niño and a 56% chance of a strong El Niño developing by the winter, a statement from NOAA says.

Globally, "we'll see more drought and fire in Indonesia/Australia, more flood damage/extreme rainfall in eastern South America," Schmidt told CNBC.”

Also: A global look

https://phys.org/news/2023-06-el-nino-early-big-sloppy.html

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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The JMA weeklies for Week 2 look hot and dry for TX/OK and the S Plains...cooler/wetter for the Upper MW...MW and Plains near normal with precip.

Screen Shot 2023-06-08 at 11.42.05 AM.png

 

Screen Shot 2023-06-08 at 11.42.14 AM.png

 

Things change for Week 3-4....big trough sets up over eastern CONUS and its cooler/wetter for much of the Sub...

 

 

2.png

Screen Shot 2023-06-08 at 11.44.22 AM.png

 

Screen Shot 2023-06-08 at 11.44.27 AM.png

 

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 77/49 there was no rain fall. There was 87% of possible sunshine and 0 CDD’s and 2 HDD’s  In the last 32 days there has only been a total of 0.04” of rain fall. Today will be day 33.

For today the average H/L is 78/57 the record high of 93 was set in 1964 and 2020 the record low of 37 was set in 1969. The record rain fall of 1.77” fell in 1963.

We are still on tap for a good chance of rain starting on Saturday night into Tueday. It will also turn much cooler for Sunday to Tuesday with highs only in the 60’s Highs that cool in mid June are not unheard of but not all that common either.

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41 minutes ago, Clinton said:

This mornings GFS showing some hope for rain both short and long term for the Lakes region.  Also showing a tropical system targeting the Texas/Louisiana boarder which is one of the LRC hot spots this summer in the long range.

qpf_acc-imp.conus.png

The pattern change many have been yearning for!  Hope it ain't to late for the corn and soybean farmers in the MW.

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Had a surprise storm pop up around 7:30 am and drop 0.20” here in a short time. Now it is very soupy with a temp of 68 and a 66 dew along with fog. Looks like storm chances ramp up tonight and tomorrow with cooler and drier air on Sunday.  Appears storm chances come back next week again as @Clintonshared with the precipitation maps. 

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

A sunny and warm day is on tap here today and the best chance in a long time for some widespread rainfall is still on track for tomorrow.

Tab2FileL.png

As much as i know we need the rain i hope it comes early in the morning or late in the evening. I got outdoor money to make during midday lol 

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31 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

As much as i know we need the rain i hope it comes early in the morning or late in the evening. I got outdoor money to make during midday lol 

I'm in the same boat but I'll take rain anytime at this point.

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

@Andie and @Iceresistance severe weather possible for you guys tomorrow.

day2otlk_0600.gif

Likely our farewell performance till Autumn 🍂 

😢

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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I'm not liking the latest trend on the models.  Instead of looking better after mid month, op models are reverting back to blocky, dry garbage.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

A nice little surprise over-performer here this morning. Hopefully a good sign of times changing!

 

20230609_100452.jpg

This complex of showers and thunderstorms held together just long enough to die out exactly one county to my north... once again nothing but a few sprinkles today in my backyard and back to no measurable precip in a full week, just lovely after things were finally looking up a bit. Kudos to those who are getting the moisture, however plenty more frustration to the others like myself who keep missing out.   

Models are looking good for widespread decent rains over the weekend in Eastern Nebraska, however we have been duped too many times lately to trust anything, well until it's actually raining.  

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18 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

This complex of showers and thunderstorms held together just long enough to die out exactly one county to my north... once again nothing but a few sprinkles today in my backyard and back to no measurable precip in a full week, just lovely after things were finally looking up a bit. Kudos to those who are getting the moisture, however plenty more frustration to the others like myself who keep missing out.   

Models are looking good for widespread decent rains over the weekend in Eastern Nebraska, however we have been duped too many times lately to trust anything, well until it's actually raining.  

I actually thought of you as I saw the radar die out. Been there too many times to count over the years. Hopefully the multiple storms developing now can produce. 

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I actually thought of you as I saw the radar die out. Been there too many times to count over the years. Hopefully the multiple storms developing now can produce. 

It looks like everything out west is diving straight south or dying out as it enters the Omaha metro. I have a feeling this weekend's widespread rains will mostly miss us again here in East Central Nebraska (I would love to be wrong)... ugh! 

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32 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

It looks like everything out west is diving straight south or dying out as it enters the Omaha metro. I have a feeling this weekend's widespread rains will mostly miss us again here in East Central Nebraska (I would love to be wrong)... ugh! 

Just had a buddy text me that our dome was in effect. Storm coming in from the west just jumped over Holdrege and re-formed just to our east. I told him I was laughing about it as I watched it occur. NWS basically said they will pulse up then die off. I guess we can’t ever assume the storms will hold together. 

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On 6/8/2023 at 1:45 PM, Tom said:

The JMA weeklies for Week 2 look hot and dry for TX/OK and the S Plains...cooler/wetter for the Upper MW...MW and Plains near normal with precip.

Screen Shot 2023-06-08 at 11.42.05 AM.png

 

Screen Shot 2023-06-08 at 11.42.14 AM.png

 

Things change for Week 3-4....big trough sets up over eastern CONUS and its cooler/wetter for much of the Sub...

 

 

2.png

Screen Shot 2023-06-08 at 11.44.22 AM.png

 

Screen Shot 2023-06-08 at 11.44.27 AM.png

 

Little two week blast of heat before June closes. Will feel pretty summerlike after all these storms pass. 

By the drought map posted in another post above, the rain is right on time. Short-term surface drought conditions are in effect.

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40% chance of severe storms tomorrow. 
High of 96. Muggy.   
We have a chance of golf ball size hail and high winds.  Ahh, Spring. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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What is wrong with the Ukie Model? That thing is clueless, earlier showing a weird nw/se heavy band of rain right over the center of Iowa unlike any other model, then recently it looked more similar to others though strangely heavy here, now it's a total wiff and south!🤮🤯 And many other models aren't too impressive either. I'ld like to get at least a half inch, (which isn't nearly enough) but I'm having a bad feeling about this, and then I'll probably have to wait at least another week if this system underperforms. 

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At Grand Rapids the official H/L yesterday was 77/50 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 98% of the time. There were no CDD’s and 1 HDD’s.  For today the average H/L is 78/57 the record high of 93 was set in 1933 and 1999 the record low of 36 was set in 1980. The record rain fall of 1.37” fell in 1979.

It has been extremely dry in much of Michigan and at Grand Rapids there has only been 0.04” of rain fall since May 8th. And there has only been 0.86” since May 1st and going back to April 22nd just 1.15” of rain has fallen. During that time there has just been one thunderstorm. Most of lower Michigan is mow is the short term dry category.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx

In looking at some past drought maps there seems to be a lag in the time from when a area enters a drought and also when an area leaves a drought. We will see how this plays out in the days ahead

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22 hours ago, Tom said:

The pattern change many have been yearning for!  Hope it ain't to late for the corn and soybean farmers in the MW.

Crop hybrids these days are much improved and more drought resistant than they used to be, being bred for that and other things. Crops here still look good, but really need rain. A few organic farmers are still waiting to plant beans till it rains as it doesn't do any good to plant in dry soil where some might sprout, but most wouldn't. July 4 is the cut-off date for planting beans around here, so there's still some time. With moisture they'll pop up in short order with the warmer soil temps this time of the year! Organic farmers usually wait a little longer to plant as organic seeds aren't treated for cool soils etc, and by working the soil later they can kill a crop of weeds before planting, etc. 

Edited by Stormy
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8 hours ago, Andie said:

40% chance of severe storms tomorrow. 
High of 96. Muggy.   
We have a chance of golf ball size hail and high winds.  Ahh, Spring. 

96 and muggy means no shortage of energy, hopefully you avoid the hail and get some nice rains.  

Image

Red River area looks to remain active going into next week.

day4prob.gif

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I can believe it.
The afternoons have felt intense.  I just don’t want hail. From the map it looks more likely to strike east of me.  I’m barely in the highest risk area. 

We’re starting out at 89* at  7:15
Dew point 66  Humidity 49%

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

96 and muggy means no shortage of energy, hopefully you avoid the hail and get some nice rains.  

Image

Red River area looks to remain active going into next week.

day4prob.gif

That's a pretty good sized enhanced risk area.

By the end of latest GFS run, Andie and myself may have a rainfall contest. Bad news is that part of it comes from a hurricane.

Storming at my place now. Fun stuff. 

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

First round of rain is weakening but right at my door step, looks like a nice soggy day.  Better chance of heavier storms this evening through tomorrow morning.  Hope these amounts EAX is predicting verify.

May be an image of map and text that says 'AFew Strong Το Isolated Severe Storms This Evening Main Threats Will Be Small Hail and Gusty Winds Severe Weather Threat Today Omaha Lincoln Lamoni Maryville Rainfall Forecast Thru Sunday Burlington St.Joseph Kirksville Chillicothe Quincy Beatrice 0.5-1" Marysville 0.5-1" 1-1.5" 0.5-1" 0.5-1" Maryville Bethany Kirksville Falls ,1-1.5" City Chillicothe Manhattan Topeka Kansas City AStrong solate Sever Storms Clinton Emporia Wichit WichitThis Eyening Columbia 1-1.5" St. Joseph 1-1.5" Kansas 0.5-1" "Manhattan 1-1.5" Topeka Bolla 0.5-1" Moberly Joplin Springfield 0.5" Ottawa Emporia 70 1-1.5" Columbia Sedalia 1-1.5" Jefferson City- 1-1.5" Rolla 1-1.5" Butler 1-1.5"'

I'm really glad to see your starting to turn things around for your region and parts of the MW...NW flow and more storm chances later next will keep things busy...unfortunately, it may put a damper on Father's Day weekend.   Euro keeps it dry but I have found it is playing "catch up" inside the 3-4 day range.  

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Just now, Clinton said:

I'll feel better about things if I can get an inch this weekend because the heat looks to make a comeback next week.

Bailed some hay yesterday and it looks like our hay crop will be 40-50 percent of average 😔 

Dang, that stinks...how often do you bail hay?  Once a season or do you allow it to grow again for another round?  Not sure how that process works.  You use it to feed your cattle, right?

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Temps should warm to near normal today after yet another below normal low this morning...some low spots across the county touched the 40's this AM. This is the coldest start to June since 2017. Tomorrow should be the only above normal day until later in the upcoming work week. Rain chances finally look likely as we move into Sunday night through Monday. As always the models show a variety of options. These include as little as 0.25" to as much as 1.25" on the European Model. Fingers and toes crossed we get some much needed rain. After today we will be approaching a rain deficit of nearly 8" so far this year!
Records for today: High 94.7 (2008) / Low 37 (1972) / Rain 2.13" (2013)
image.png.a63add5c7fb75addf1f61dada724b475.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Dang, that stinks...how often do you bail hay?  Once a season or do you allow it to grow again for another round?  Not sure how that process works.  You use it to feed your cattle, right?

We usually do 1 hay crop because we need the grass for the cattle but many people bail again in the fall.  Everyone will only be doing 1 this year unless things change.

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