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June 2023 Observations & Discussions


westMJim

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Welcome to June and meteorological summer! It has kind of felt like summer now for the last 5 days or so. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 90/64 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 94% of the time. There were no HDD’s and 12 CDD’s A new record high was set at Muskegon with a high of 90.

For today the average H/L is 75/54 the record high of 102 was set in 1934 and the record low of 36 was set in 1993. The record rain fall amount of 2.75” fell in 1970. The next 5 days look to stay on the hot (for Michigan) hot side. With highs in the low 90’s up to Saturday before dropping into the low to mid 80’s there are several chances of thunderstorms.

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Here is a quick look at how May 2023 played out across southern lower Michigan. At Grand Rapids the mean was 58.9 that was a departure of -0.3. the high was 90 on the 30th and 31st and the low was 36 on the 1st There was just 0.84” of rain fall that is the 2nd lowest rain fall for any May. At Lansing the mean was 59.1 that was +0.7 the high was 90 and the low was 36 there was 0.96” of rain fall that was the 5th driest May on record. At Muskegon the mean there was 59.6 that was a departure of +1.7 there were record highs of 92 on the 30th and 90 on the 31st there was just 0.86” of rain fall that is the 5 lowest for any May. At Holland the mean was 58.8 that is a departure of +0.5 They had 1.03” of rain fall and that is the 10 lowest for any May.

On the east side of the state Detroit had a mean of 59.7 that is a departure of -0.6 the high for the month was 86 and the low was 37 They had 0.92” of rain fall that was the 5th lowest for any May. At Flint the mean was 57.1 for a departure of -0.3 their high for the month was 89 and the low was 32 they had 1.08” of rain fall that was the 11th least for any May. And at Saginaw the mean there was 57.4 a departure of -0.8 they had 0.80” of rain fall that was the 3rd driest May on record there.

The one item that stands out is that May 2023 was dry across southern lower Michigan. The month started out cold and many locations seen a trace of snow early in the month. The end of the month had became very hot (by Michigan standards) and very dry (by Michigan standards) The month ended at most locations less than a degree above or below average. All of the east side of the state was cooler than average

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Welcome to June and the official start to Met Summer!  @westMJim, thanks for firing up this thread...

We are enjoying some splendid weather out in the Valley of the Sun as the trough has made its way into the 4 corners region.  In fact, it is directly overhead and some rain showers are rotating up near the Grand Canyon at the moment...

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Temps have only topped out in the low 90's in the valley yesterday and may barely hit 90F out here in Fountain Hills where it's a touch cooler than Sky Harbor Airport.  Not a cloud in the sky that past few days.  It's unreal how clear the skies have been...not even one Chem Trail! 

Oh ya, the unofficial start to the fire season has begun as some random brush fires sprung up across the valley yesterday afternoon and the strong winds didn't help firefighters.  They weren't big fires but did catch people off guard as the were closer to the the PHX metro area.  There was one that fired up a few days ago about 10 miles to my east along Hwy 87 but was taken care of quickly.  Lots of fuel out there from the abundant moisture and vegetation that has dried out from the wet winter and spring.  Needless to say, the firefighters and emergency response units are ready this season even though the wildfire fire season isn't in a High alert this year. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I had a pop-up roll over my house yesterday and picked up .30 inches of rain and some pea sized hail.  Some hope for some today but it won't be enough. 

 

 

Nice!  I love those type of summer days where its exciting to see and track storms pop up randomly on the radar in a "bubbly" airmass.  Good luck again today!

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Area of storms with heavy rain just 2 counties to my west this morning in central Iowa, but it's just not budging to the east.  Some very beneficial rains for those under this cell.  Sadly, doesn't look like we will get in on the action here.  It hasn't rained in quite awhile so we really could use it.  

 

image.png.5641a058c27d1118f409c11dc211cf08.png

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1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

 

Area of storms with heavy rain just 2 counties to my west this morning in central Iowa, but it's just not budging to the east.  Some very beneficial rains for those under this cell.  Sadly, doesn't look like we will get in on the action here.  It hasn't rained in quite awhile so we really could use it.  

 

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Started off June with some light rain this morning which was nice to finally see, unfortunately only 0.03” in the rain gauge. This was the first measurable rainfall in over 3 weeks so it’s nice to know liquid can still fall from the sky here LOL… really hoping we can score some more moisture later today.

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3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

May was pretty dang rough for the eastern half of the Plains. Let's hope the script flips this month and the wealth can be shared.

FxinNWIaUAEepRt.png

Thankfully we are off to a great start here, now up to a 1/2 inch of rain so far today from a few rounds of showers and storms (some dropping some decent downpours). We picked up more rainfall the first 12 hours of June then we had the whole month of May. Looks like we might pick up a bit more this afternoon… as well.

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Finished with 0.60” of rainfall today from multiple rounds of showers and storms… it looks like my parched lawn soaked up every single drop of it. Still a long way to go to make up for the long term moisture deficits, however it was nice to get some moisture today.

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Scattered storms finally popped in my area this afternoon/evening, but I did not see a drop.

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season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Morning all. 
Current 71,  Dew 66 and Humid- 82%. 

Rain tomorrow and this weekend.  
It’s certainly acting like there’s an El Niño out west.  We usually don’t see this much rain forecast in June in Niña years.  It’s a bit early. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The official H/L yesterday was 91/63 at the airport there was a reported 0.01” of rain fall. Several other areas also had some rain fall. That was not the case here in MBY as I did not receive any. There was 55% of possible sunshine and there were 12 Cool Degree Days.

The overnight low here in MBY was a warm 62 the current reading here is 65. For today the average H/L is 76/55 the record high is 95 set in 1934 and the record low of 35 was set in 1956. The record rain fall amount of 1.92” fell in 2007.

Today and tomorrow look to be the last two days of this early summer “heat wave” and there is a chance of some thunderstorms tomorrow with the lake breeze and then cold front. Highs today and Saturday should be in the 90’s but will drop down to the 70’s for next week. Lows next week look to be in the 40’s so we will have a week of “don’t have to weather” I will be taking a day trip up to Bay City today. It will be cooler there with a NE wind off of Saginaw Bay temperatures should be in the low 80’s or upper 70’s

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21 hours ago, bud2380 said:

 

Area of storms with heavy rain just 2 counties to my west this morning in central Iowa, but it's just not budging to the east.  Some very beneficial rains for those under this cell.  Sadly, doesn't look like we will get in on the action here.  It hasn't rained in quite awhile so we really could use it.  

 

image.png.5641a058c27d1118f409c11dc211cf08.png

Here are the radar rainfall estimations from that event

iowa_q2_1d (1).png

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A few brief small cells dropped around 1" of rain a few miles south and northeast of me early last evening. The first cell died just as it moved in directly toward me then refired just ne. Ugh what a teaser! Only 0.05" here. At least it cooled off from around 30mph outflow and dampened the surface.  Also some lightning including 2 close strikes, and had some cloudiness yesterday from earlier storms to the west. 😀

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22 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Forgot it was June.   Posted in May thread, but here is latest drought monitor.

drought.JPG.f5a0bd401f2f2375ad6520717809f0ae.JPG

 

 

The drought has greatly expanded all the way into PA and MD! 🙁 So don't feel to bad @OttumwaSnomow though I realize you really are in a small  area that got less rainfall this spring. 

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Yesterday was the 2nd day in a row that ORD got hit by storms that bubbled up and dropped 0.88" of rain in less than an hour, accompanied by 52 mph wind gusts and brings the 2-day total to 1.17"!  Boy, the "havs and have not's" of summery rains...glad to see the tables have turned for some as we flipped the calendar into June.  Had a good feeling the pattern would turn wetter farther east.  Now we just need a few more members to get in on the action.

 

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Many spots across the county saw temps in the mid-80's yesterday - here in East Nantmeal we could do no better than the low 80's. Today many spots will take a run at their first 90 degree day of the season. Some of the higher ridge top locations will likely stay in the upper 80's. A strong cold front will be dropping through the area from North to South during the evening. There is a 40% chance of showers. It looks to be hit and miss type showers but let's hope some of us get under a shower or 2 to help cut into the current rain deficit which has grown to almost 7 inches through today.
Much cooler weather tomorrow with some spots not escaping the 60's. The cooler than normal weather should continue for at least the next week.
Records for today: High 95 (1895) / Low 37 (1927) / Rain 3.11" (1946)
image.png.71a050995d37ae6b4090e93c8cba2337.png

DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters.  Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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The JMA weeklies from yesterday look very promising for the rest of the Sub who have been missed by the storms this week....the 2nd half of the month as a broad large scale trough centered over the central/eastern CONUS.

Week 2...

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Temp...

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Precip...

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Week 3-4...keep it going!

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Temp...

 

image.png

 

Precip...

 

image.png

 

 

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" The period from Jan 1 through April 5th 2023 was the wettest on record at GRR for that stretch by almost 1.5", then we flipped a switch and the period from Apr 6th through June 1st has been the driest on the record by more than 0.5"

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NWS Hastings says 1-2” of rain in 50 mile wide swath across some areas of Central Nebraska. I was outside the band and got 0.20”. They said it wasn’t forecasted well at all. I keep hoping for a heavy band like that, but I’ll take the 0.20-0.40” types I’ve had this week. Pattern looks to dry out next week. Those who have gotten little to nothing the last 2 weeks will be in some trouble for their crops. 

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Another day, another miss.  This time a storm popped and got very close, but I only got thunder and sprinkles.  That will probably be it for several days.

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season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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10 hours ago, tStacsh said:

I had a cell forming right over my house yesterday.  Dropped about .000001" of huge raindrops that sounded like, but wasn't, hail.  Sun never stopped shining and it lasted about 30 seconds. 

About the same luck here except I only felt a few small sprinkles of .0000001"😂. Anyway it was the same story as yesterday with brief small cells literally all around by a few or more miles, but slowly moving wnw. this time. Lots of thunder rumbling at times too. Some people are reporting rain both days of up to 0.50" to 1". Looks like I'll probably have to wait another week or more now 😕

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4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Another day, another miss.  This time a storm popped and got very close, but I only got thunder and sprinkles.  That will probably be it for several days.

I guess I better not get up my hopes for chances early next week. 

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14 hours ago, Stormy said:

The drought has greatly expanded all the way into PA and MD! 🙁 So don't feel to bad @OttumwaSnomow though I realize you really are in a small  area that got less rainfall this spring. 

Indeed, I was told today bwi only had .50 in May?   Drakesville Iowa  near me here has .52 since April 23.  If that continues  until June 23rd?  A incredibly  dry   period!   That 60 days in our area here easily  pushes 10 inch normals for decades! What Ive noticed  about this part of SE Iowa is this if Missouri  gets extremely  dry it gets us, if  north or west  Iowa gets dry it usually  gets us. If Illinois  gets dry so are we here. Especially  since 2012.  Warm season  averages  must be plummeting   over the past 11 yrs!  But historically  this has happened  before. 1930s  and 1950s many recurring  droughts. 2017  rivaled a drought im may june july early 1880s!  But friends this one means business! Corn is under extreme  stress here now. Some soybeans havent poked thru in 20 days! 2012 or 2017  didn't  compare! And the geographic  enormity of this!!!  But that being said many here in Iowa where popups drenched this week are  in much better shape now.

Screenshot_20230602_214201_Gallery.jpg

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May ended up quiet, just like the rest of the month. I'm hoping June turns out differently! It does look like we have a chance of some storms tomorrow for Tulsa and maybe around next Tuesday or so. Still, nothing major as best as I can tell. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Sounds like I may have gotten a nice thunderstorm yesterday afternoon, I received a notification that power was out due to storm damage.  The family and I are camping this weekend at Lake of the Ozarks and the weather has been nearly perfect but a little sticky. 

 

Screenshot_20230602_190727_Messages.jpg

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Sounds like I may have gotten a nice thunderstorm yesterday afternoon, I received a notification that power was out due to storm damage.  The family and I are camping this weekend at Lake of the Ozarks and the weather has been nearly perfect but a little sticky. 

 

Screenshot_20230602_190727_Messages.jpg

I miss the Lake of the Ozarks...such a wonderful place and so much fun...are you by the Party Cove?

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Hello from Washington D.C.! Wife and I flew into DC yesterday from MSP. Gonna do some sightseeing and drive up to Philadelphia tomorrow. We return to MSP next Wednesday. Weather looks great while we're out here. Hope you guys can score some rainfall back home!

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Another hot one back in Chi, ORD topped out at 91F (4 days of 91F day highs)...looks like Summer has come early this year...hmmm, is that 1977 going to be an analog for next cold season?  Would be nice!  I believe 1977-78 was a weak Nino that came on late in Summer but especially Autumn/Winter.

 

1.webp

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Plenty of spots across the county hit 90 degrees including my poorly placed roof top thermometer which hit 93 degrees. However, my 2 ground based thermometers could do no better than around 89 degrees. Much cooler today through the rest of the upcoming week with temps remaining in the 70's.
Records for today: 98 (1919) / 36 (1986) / Rain 1.16" (1978)
image.png.97488cdc8a2fa9763dae3c0a5ab2d748.png

DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters.  Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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In the last 26 days there has only been 0.04″ of rain at Grand Rapids. 0.06″ at Fremont, 0.10″ at Ionia, 0.11″ at Muskegon, 0.17″ at Lansing and 0.18″ at Holland. And there is not much if any chance of rain in the next week. This is probably the driest May into the start of June in our area in recorded history.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Another hot one back in Chi, ORD topped out at 91F (4 days of 91F day highs)...looks like Summer has come early this year...hmmm, is that 1977 going to be an analog for next cold season?  Would be nice!  I believe 1977-78 was a weak Nino that came on late in Summer but especially Autumn/Winter.

 

1.webp

76-77 and 77-78 were the twin weak-mod Niño episodes that marked the great climate shift. 

I'll have an order of 77 with a side of 1995. With a 2009 as a cherry on the top.

I find it remarkable that we talked a few times about the end of last year and beginning of this one about 2008-09 and things are still really tracking in that way...In my opinion anyway. 

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