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June 2023 Observations & Discussions


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Did a little mini chase for the storms around Tulsa yesterday. Got into a microburst with just a few feet of visibility so I pulled over. Some stations in that area recorded 1-2" of rain with as much as 3" in north Tulsa. It was nice to see since its been dry so often for much of the spring.

I'm starting to see some hype about a storm pattern in 7-10 days. I guess we will see. 

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6 hours ago, Andie said:

The Michigan wildfires are not stopping for anything.  Continued dry conditions and temps in the mid 80’s.  
 

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It’s getting bad here for sure.  3 weeks with less than a trace of rain.  No real rain in forecast until maybe next Sunday.   Lawns are dead.   I’d water but at this point there is no point 
 

FCBB1637-2972-4198-88D1-9D6501D6864C.thumb.jpeg.9f75b9a01ea36b7efea4f592daa22cb4.jpeg

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My God Stacsh!   
We’re the polar opposite. Texas should go brown in deep summer but up where you are….?!

We expect rain tonight  Getting darker now   

 

CA3C7DE5-AFAE-4C33-9FBE-372F5A490AA8.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It finally rained here!  A tiny, but potent, cell popped over me late this afternoon.  It quickly went from nothing to heavy rain, strong wind, and pea-size hail.  I picked up 0.27" of rain.

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Stuff really drying out here. Been a dry pattern here since last October, and now a top-5 driest Jan-May on record since the mid-19th century. 

Looks like another wall of smoke from Canada will move in tomorrow afternoon. Have never seen so much wildfire smoke in June before.

All bad omens, I fear. This isn’t how cool/wet niño summers typically begin.IMG_3892.gif

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Went to gas up the truck this evening at a Bosselman’s just south of town about a mile, gas 5 cents cheaper a gallon there. As I’m pulling up it starts to rain, video attached. When I finished, I drove back into town, torrential downpour and small hail. When I got to about 6 blocks from my house, the rain abruptly stopped. I ended with a few sprinkles. Looks like a couple mile wide swath got between 0.50-1.0” in 20 minutes. Water was running down the corn rows. What an odd pattern we are in. 

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Yesterday was a very pleasant early summer day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 82/57 there was no rain fall and 89% of possible sunshine. There were no HDD;s and 5 CDD’s In the last 27 days only 0.04” of rain has fallen at Grand Rapids, in the last 35 days only 0.85” of rain has fallen. So it is getting very dry at this time.

The official H/L for today is 77/55 the record high of 95 was set in 1925 and the record low of 36 was set in 1945. The record rain fall amount of 4.22” fell in 1925. Most of this week looks to have warm days and comfortable nighttime lows. It looks to stay dry for most of the week There is now around a 40% chance of showers over the weekend.

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Yesterday was a very pleasant early summer day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 82/57 there was no rain fall and 89% of possible sunshine. There were no HDD;s and 5 CDD’s In the last 27 days only 0.04” of rain has fallen at Grand Rapids, in the last 35 days only 0.85” of rain has fallen. So it is getting very dry at this time.

The official H/L for today is 77/55 the record high of 95 was set in 1925 and the record low of 36 was set in 1945. The record rain fall amount of 4.22” fell in 1925. Most of this week looks to have warm days and comfortable nighttime lows. It looks to stay dry for most of the week There is now around a 40% chance of showers over the weekend.

Second longest dry stretch in recorded West Michigan history.  If it doesn’t rain in some areas this weekend we will beat that record.  
 

8A4ADC6D-8D7C-440A-8328-5A28F22D9FA2.thumb.jpeg.596a1df8d97ffdecd1503a9fecfa716b.jpeg

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Our morning low was a below average 48.1. Another mainly dry week in store across the county. High temperatures look to average near normal while overnight lows look to be below normal through much of the week. Normal highs are in the mid to upper 70's with lows in the mid to upper 50's. Our best chance of a little rain looks to be Tuesday night. There are some hints across the longer term models of a wetter period possibly developing by later this weekend into next week. 🤞🤞🤞🤞
Records for today: High 97 (1925) / Low 39 (1948) / Rain 2.39" (1970)
image.png.51c10a9da066711d23526a0c87226372.png

DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  We ensure there is no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics.  Unlike NOAA, we do not apply post observation adjustments to the historical raw data from the trained NWS observers and spotters.  

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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10 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

 

IMG_1337.mov 74.77 MB · 0 downloads  

 

Went to gas up the truck this evening at a Bosselman’s just south of town about a mile, gas 5 cents cheaper a gallon there. As I’m pulling up it starts to rain, video attached. When I finished, I drove back into town, torrential downpour and small hail. When I got to about 6 blocks from my house, the rain abruptly stopped. I ended with a few sprinkles. Looks like a couple mile wide swath got between 0.50-1.0” in 20 minutes. Water was running down the corn rows. What an odd pattern we are in. 

Welcome to the "Tropics"...hit or miss summer time storms...gotta love it...or...hate it...embrace it no matter what Mother Nature throws ya!  Glad to see your scoring "hits" and not misses.  Regarding the bolded, I have to agree, even out here we are certainly experiencing a very odd pattern for the month of June.  I can't remember a time where we have had such a cool pattern that extended into June.  The temps in the extended keep getting lowered and the locals out here are ecstatic.  To add farther, the mountains keep getting moisture as the Monsoon has started WEEKS earlier than normal.  Just amazing.

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27 minutes ago, Tom said:

Welcome to the "Tropics"...hit or miss summer time storms...gotta love it...or...hate it...embrace it no matter what Mother Nature throws ya!  Glad to see your scoring "hits" and not misses.  Regarding the bolded, I have to agree, even out here we are certainly experiencing a very odd pattern for the month of June.  I can't remember a time where we have had such a cool pattern that extended into June.  The temps in the extended keep getting lowered and the locals out here are ecstatic.  To add farther, the mountains keep getting moisture as the Monsoon has started WEEKS earlier than normal.  Just amazing.

This pattern is extremely odd… I can’t remember there being multiple days of pop-up scattered showers and storms that have moved in from the northeast (Iowa) during the month of June, however that’s what we are being dealt. The past few days have been feeling more like late July/ early August weather… widespread rain/ precipitation is still really lacking here. 

I am very glad that we picked up the decent rains this past Thursday because it’s been more “miss” since then (at least in my backyard). Yesterday was a prime example of how frustrating this pattern has been (much like CentralNebWeather’s post above) as we got caught under a very heavy downpour about 2-1/2 miles north of our house, however when we got home there was nothing more than a few sprinkles. I did pick up 0.70” of rain total last week (almost all that came on Thursday) which we will absolutely take, however we still need a lot more to improve the drought here.

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3 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

This pattern is extremely odd… I can’t remember there being multiple days of pop-up scattered showers and storms that have moved in from the northeast (Iowa) during the month of June, however that’s what we are being dealt. The past few days have been feeling more like late July/ early August weather… widespread rain/ precipitation is still really lacking here. 

I am very glad that we picked up the decent rains this past Thursday because it’s been more “miss” since then (at least in my backyard). Yesterday was a prime example of how frustrating this pattern has been as we got caught under a very heavy downpour about 2-1/2 miles north of our house, however when we got home there was nothing more than a few sprinkles. I did pick up 0.70” of rain total last week (almost all that came on Thursday) which we will absolutely take, however we still need a lot more to improve the drought here.

I noticed the radar yesterday was showing this movement from E to W and I found that really odd.  I've seen it happen on occasion in the winter months when the pattern gets blocked up but to see it in the summer is quite odd I'd say.  Anyway, this is the period I have been waiting for to see folks farther east in our Sub to begin to score some hits.  Let's see how this week plays out.  I'm rooting for you!

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14 hours ago, Andie said:

My God Stacsh!   
We’re the polar opposite. Texas should go brown in deep summer but up where you are….?!

We expect rain tonight  Getting darker now   

 

It didn’t happen for us. :(

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Took a drive around the area this morning. Corn about 12-18” tall and soybeans a couple of inches. All ditches are green and lush. Yards look amazing. The small storm last night that hit a small area on the south side of town still has some standing water in the fields. No standing water in other fields on the other sides of town. Forecast says dry for a few days, then rain and storm chances really increase from Thursday night through the weekend. 

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22 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

It finally rained here!  A tiny, but potent, cell popped over me late this afternoon.  It quickly went from nothing to heavy rain, strong wind, and pea-size hail.  I picked up 0.27" of rain.

I also was grazed on the se. edge of a brief, hot cell with just 0.19". It won't go far and didn't soak down much, but it still helps! Just a bit of hail bigger than peas. I could hear it rain and hail more, and maybe half a minute sooner, on the neighbor's steel roofed buildings across the road to the north! And for a spell it sounded like it was raining on the west half of the approximately 800'- 900' building, it was so spotty! Radar estimates show around 1" maybe 1-2 miles nw. And yes, cells generally moved from e. to w. 

Lawns are beginning to get brown and I didn't mow like I usually would at the end of the week. 

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Smoke tsunami has arrived, sun blocked out like it’s cloudy.

Look at all this gunk moving in. Do better, Canada. 😒

gif_1686008871.gif

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On 6/4/2023 at 7:58 PM, Phil said:

Stuff really drying out here. Been a dry pattern here since last October, and now a top-5 driest Jan-May on record since the mid-19th century. 

Looks like another wall of smoke from Canada will move in tomorrow afternoon. Have never seen so much wildfire smoke in June before.

All bad omens, I fear. This isn’t how cool/wet niño summers typically begin.IMG_3892.gif

Well, I'm noticing that the eastern flank of Niño has really spiked the last few days, too. I hope this fades and becomes central based as we go, but I could be wrong. 

I definitely do not downplay the significance of our massive rainfall deficit region either. More than anomalous would be a great way to put it.

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Like a broken record there was no rain fall yesterday. With a hazy but sunny day the H/L was 85/55. There was 79% of hazy sunshine. There were 0 HDD’s and 5 CDD’s The overnight low here in MBY so far has been 59 at the current time it is either cloudy or very hazy. For today the average H/L is 77/56 the record high of 95 was set in 1925 and the record low of 37 was set in 1958. The record rain fall amount of 1.82”  fell in 1928.

Until Saturday it looks to stay dry with highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 and lows in the low 50’s to upper 40’s so it should average just a little below average. There looks to be a pattern change starting Saturday with a better chance of rain and that could hold into the start of next week and it looks to turn cooler as well with highs in the low to mid 70’s and lows in the upper 40’s to low 50’s.

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12 hours ago, Phil said:

Smoke tsunami has arrived, sun blocked out like it’s cloudy.

Look at all this gunk moving in. Do better, Canada. 😒

gif_1686008871.gif

Yeah I'm in DC and noticed it last evening when sun was going down

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Some smoke (from Quebec) has been drifting across our area. This will continue peaking this evening before some improvement tomorrow. There is a small chance of a shower today but not likely, Near normal temps for the rest of the week before warming to above normal by the weekend. There continues to be some signs of a pattern change starting Sunday that may lead us to more typical rain pattern across the county.
Records for today: High 99 (1899) / Low 38 (1958) / Rain 2.65" (1928)
image.png.1f5030642b06010da0870cab93582bdc.png

DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  We ensure there is no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics.  Unlike NOAA, we do not apply post observation adjustments to the historical raw data from the trained NWS observers and spotters.  

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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00z GFS dropping some 2-4 inch rainfall totals in spots that could really use it. 06z GFS looked similar.

Crossing my fingers this upcoming pattern change can really start to put a dent in ongoing drought conditions across a large portion of the Midwest.

gfs_apcpn_ncus_64 (1).png

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We’re looking at a 9 day streak of temps in the low to mid 90’s. 
Should see our first 100 after that.  
(Breaks over, back on our head). 

High humidity - 55%
High UV  11.0

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Good Day all!  Yesterday, PHX torched and hit a season high of 107F.  Locally, it is a cool 67F this morning and quite refreshing.  I smelled the wild fires in the air that are burning near the HWY 87 Beeline not far from my place.  In the mornings, while winds are calm, you can see the smoke layer on the camera shots across the valley acting like a "bowl", pooling all the smoke.  Just to let you know, the wild fire season isn't as bad as years past.  They are manageable and the continued Monsoon rains are really helping the situation.

Is there a pattern change looming?  Finally, a storm system will traverse out of the 4 Corners/Rockies and towards the GL's/OHV region by this weekend.  The models are showing what was a very common theme over the course of the last cold season as a weak SLP will form out in the Sb Plains and track East bringing a ribbon of much needed moisture to the Eastern Sub.  Some signs of a summer version OHV cutter??

 

111.gif

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There is a chance of rain/storms as the backdoor cold front moves through later today, but it looks pretty scattered.

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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34 minutes ago, Tom said:

Good Day all!  Yesterday, PHX torched and hit a season high of 107F.  Locally, it is a cool 67F this morning and quite refreshing.  I smelled the wild fires in the air that are burning near the HWY 87 Beeline not far from my place.  In the mornings, while winds are calm, you can see the smoke layer on the camera shots across the valley acting like a "bowl", pooling all the smoke.  Just to let you know, the wild fire season isn't as bad as years past.  They are manageable and the continued Monsoon rains are really helping the situation.

Is there a pattern change looming?  Finally, a storm system will traverse out of the 4 Corners/Rockies and towards the GL's/OHV region by this weekend.  The models are showing what was a very common theme over the course of the last cold season as a weak SLP will form out in the Sb Plains and track East bringing a ribbon of much needed moisture to the Eastern Sub.  Some signs of a summer version OHV cutter??

 

111.gif

Some widespread rainfall would be nice, looks like there is a chance of that happening near mby this weekend. 

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Just now, Clinton said:

Some widespread rainfall would be nice, looks like there is a chance of that happening near mby this weekend. 

Hope this system can somehow "share the wealth" as we would say in the Winter months.. 

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3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

There is a chance of rain/storms as the backdoor cold front moves through later today, but it looks pretty scattered.

Backdoor front will be in my area tomorrow.  Timing could be good for some scattered strong storms, we often get some strong winds with this type of setup. 

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Backdoor front will be in my area tomorrow.  Timing could be good for some scattered strong storms, we often get some strong winds with this type of setup. 

How often do you get a backdoor cold front? We get them from time to time here but not really that often. We have had much more NE winds so far this year than average. On the east side of Michigan there is a lake breeze that will bring a NE wind but not so much on the west side of the state.

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52 minutes ago, westMJim said:

How often do you get a backdoor cold front? We get them from time to time here but not really that often. We have had much more NE winds so far this year than average. On the east side of Michigan there is a lake breeze that will bring a NE wind but not so much on the west side of the state.

Not often maybe once or twice a year in the summer. We had one last week and it didn't do much.

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There is so much smoke high in the air you can not tell if it is cloudy or not. The sun is shining thru so it should be smoke. Any way I just took a step outside and with low DP and the wind we do have it feel rather cool out there. At the current time there is filtered sun and 77 here in MBY. On the east side of the state there are a lot of low 60’s and in the up near Lake Superior 50’s are the rule.

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6 hours ago, westMJim said:

There is so much smoke high in the air you can not tell if it is cloudy or not. The sun is shining thru so it should be smoke. Any way I just took a step outside and with low DP and the wind we do have it feel rather cool out there. At the current time there is filtered sun and 77 here in MBY. On the east side of the state there are a lot of low 60’s and in the up near Lake Superior 50’s are the rule.

The Canadian reports are humbling. In the Earth forum there are a couple links you might find interesting.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

Good Day all!  Yesterday, PHX torched and hit a season high of 107F.  Locally, it is a cool 67F this morning and quite refreshing.  I smelled the wild fires in the air that are burning near the HWY 87 Beeline not far from my place.  In the mornings, while winds are calm, you can see the smoke layer on the camera shots across the valley acting like a "bowl", pooling all the smoke.  Just to let you know, the wild fire season isn't as bad as years past.  They are manageable and the continued Monsoon rains are really helping the situation.

Is there a pattern change looming?  Finally, a storm system will traverse out of the 4 Corners/Rockies and towards the GL's/OHV region by this weekend.  The models are showing what was a very common theme over the course of the last cold season as a weak SLP will form out in the Sb Plains and track East bringing a ribbon of much needed moisture to the Eastern Sub.  Some signs of a summer version OHV cutter??

 

111.gif

I'm wondering if it really makes sense that all models are totally reversing this pattern in the 10-15 day ranges, putting a huge ridge in its place across the heartland and up through the lakes. I don't know if I can agree with them just yet. We'll see.

I'm truly glad to see precipitation in any form on the drought regions. 

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6 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

The GFS is showing a tropical cyclone hitting LA in fantasyland.

image.thumb.png.967d03422162c5bc32174ba26f3b2109.png

 

Mini Katrina. Well....

Its never good to see a left turning tropical cyclone/hurricane. Would fit part of my summer predictions, though, if it came true. 

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12 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

There is a chance of rain/storms as the backdoor cold front moves through later today, but it looks pretty scattered.

Well, it was a big dud for Cedar Rapids.  The pavement got wet.  Next chance is this weekend.

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This weekend looks like it will bring the best chance in a long time for some widespread rains to my region 1-2 inches possible and so badly needed!  Euro and GFS showing nice rains for some.

0z Euro:

qpf_acc-imp.us_mw.png

qpf_acc-imp.us_c.png

0z GFS

qpf_acc-imp.us_mw.png

qpf_acc-imp.us_c.png

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There was once again a lot of high-level smoke over the area yesterday. The official H/L was 78/53 there was no rain fall. In the last 29 days Grand Rapids has only had 0.04” of rain fall. There was a reported 45% of filtered sunshine yesterday. There was 0 HDD’s and 1 CDD’s

The overnight low here in MBY and the official overnight low so far has been 48 this is the coldest low in 10 days. For today the average H/L is 77/56 the record high of 94 was set in 1911 and the record low of 38 was set in 1958 the record rain fall amount of 1.87” fell in 1939.

The rest of this week looks to be dry until Saturday when there is a chance of some rain. There is at least a 50% chance of rain on Sunday. Temperatures look to be around average until Sunday and then fall to below average for the start of next week along with several chances of some much-needed rain.

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Currently 69* and on our way to 91.  
Humid morning at 83% …eww.

Very warm weekend ahead - 95*. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 hours ago, westMJim said:

There was once again a lot of high-level smoke over the area yesterday. The official H/L was 78/53 there was no rain fall. In the last 29 days Grand Rapids has only had 0.04” of rain fall. There was a reported 45% of filtered sunshine yesterday. There was 0 HDD’s and 1 CDD’s

The overnight low here in MBY and the official overnight low so far has been 48 this is the coldest low in 10 days. For today the average H/L is 77/56 the record high of 94 was set in 1911 and the record low of 38 was set in 1958 the record rain fall amount of 1.87” fell in 1939.

The rest of this week looks to be dry until Saturday when there is a chance of some rain. There is at least a 50% chance of rain on Sunday. Temperatures look to be around average until Sunday and then fall to below average for the start of next week along with several chances of some much-needed rain.

I've never looked forward to 60's and rain in June before, but this will be a first.  

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