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June 2023 Observations & Discussions


westMJim

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I did a little  research.  Since 2003 Ottumwa  Iowa has had 4 sopping wet years, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 in a row! It has had 10 dry years well below avg precip.  And about  6 years 1 to 3 inches from normal. But here the killer we have had several very wet months outside  the growing season.  Like a 8 inch October  and a 8 inch December.  And in general  the winters  are wetter than normal. So what all this mean? Without  a doubt the  may to septembers have leaned way way drier than avg. Particularly  is this true of  July and Aug!!!  I haven't  specifically  looked that up but its a fact that there  has been few very wet weeks in July and Aug for many years. This is reflected  on us almost perennially  being on the drough monitor!

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Interesting long range discussion by NWS Hastings in their afternoon discussion:  

That front/possible precipitation leans into next weekend, which is when upper heights weaken and a weak trough meanders its way into the southwest United States. According to longer range ensembles, the break down of the high pressure could spark a period of more active weather for about 1 to 2 weeks through the middle and into the latter part of June (roughly starting the 10th-12th). This may be a time of increased severe weather risk as the upper flow/shear increase. Not sure its a guarantee but that seems to be the trend. An even longer looks suggests after this potentially more active weather period, an increase upper heights will settle in by about July 1 and start to spell our move into the hottest time of the year. Despite the mid/late month potential for more active weather and rainfall, the trend that eastern Nebraska/Kansas (and Iowa) will remain drier (relative to normal) than western Nebraska/Kansas remains, and continues to be roughly split down Highway 281. That probably means those who have been drier will favor dry (eastern Nebraska) while those who have been wetter will favor wet (western Nebraska/western-central Kansas). As is usually the case with the weather, it`s good for some and not good for others.

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2 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I did a little  research.  Since 2003 Ottumwa  Iowa has had 4 sopping wet years, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 in a row! It has had 10 dry years well below avg precip.  And about  6 years 1 to 3 inches from normal. But here the killer we have had several very wet months outside  the growing season.  Like a 8 inch October  and a 8 inch December.  And in general  the winters  are wetter than normal. So what all this mean? Without  a doubt the  may to septembers have leaned way way drier than avg. Particularly  is this true of  July and Aug!!!  I haven't  specifically  looked that up but its a fact that there  has been few very wet weeks in July and Aug for many years. This is reflected  on us almost perennially  being on the drough monitor!

This is awesome research and also an interesting trend over the last two decades. I wonder if this is a pattern that will reverse over the coming years or grow. Seems likely that eventually it would shift or reverse altogether at some point, in my opinion.

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 90/62 there was no rain fall the sun was out 72% of the time. There were 11 CDD’s and 0 HDD’s The overnight low here in MBY so far today is 58 and there is a lot of smoke so it looks cloudy. For today the average H/L is now 76/55 the record high of 93 was set in 1899 and 1925 the record low of 32 was set in 1945 there will be the last time the at Grand Rapids the low has reached 32 or less until September 3rd It will come later at Muskegon and Holland at Lansing there have been record lows in every month of 32 or less.

It is now official that this heat wave has reached 5 days in a row of 90 or better at Grand Rapids, Muskegon, and Kalamazoo. At Holland there have been 4 days in a row of 90 or better At Lansing 4 out of the last 5 have reached 90 or better. At Detroit it is 1 out of 5, At Saginaw it is 2 out of 5 and at Flint they have not officially reached 90 yet in 2023. This is now the warmest end of May/start of June at Grand Rapids since 1934.

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The full moon this morning was so big and beautiful to see around 4:30am as I looked out from the patio deck...I should have taken a pic..but pics don't necessarily capture the beauty compared to in person.

Edit: Meant to send this a few hours ago but in any event...Happy Sunday all!

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The Michigan wildfires are not stopping for anything.  Continued dry conditions and temps in the mid 80’s.  
 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Did a little mini chase for the storms around Tulsa yesterday. Got into a microburst with just a few feet of visibility so I pulled over. Some stations in that area recorded 1-2" of rain with as much as 3" in north Tulsa. It was nice to see since its been dry so often for much of the spring.

I'm starting to see some hype about a storm pattern in 7-10 days. I guess we will see. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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6 hours ago, Andie said:

The Michigan wildfires are not stopping for anything.  Continued dry conditions and temps in the mid 80’s.  
 

526D60D0-D601-4084-B3F6-32D0292CB625.webp

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It’s getting bad here for sure.  3 weeks with less than a trace of rain.  No real rain in forecast until maybe next Sunday.   Lawns are dead.   I’d water but at this point there is no point 
 

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My God Stacsh!   
We’re the polar opposite. Texas should go brown in deep summer but up where you are….?!

We expect rain tonight  Getting darker now   

 

CA3C7DE5-AFAE-4C33-9FBE-372F5A490AA8.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It finally rained here!  A tiny, but potent, cell popped over me late this afternoon.  It quickly went from nothing to heavy rain, strong wind, and pea-size hail.  I picked up 0.27" of rain.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Stuff really drying out here. Been a dry pattern here since last October, and now a top-5 driest Jan-May on record since the mid-19th century. 

Looks like another wall of smoke from Canada will move in tomorrow afternoon. Have never seen so much wildfire smoke in June before.

All bad omens, I fear. This isn’t how cool/wet niño summers typically begin.IMG_3892.gif

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Went to gas up the truck this evening at a Bosselman’s just south of town about a mile, gas 5 cents cheaper a gallon there. As I’m pulling up it starts to rain, video attached. When I finished, I drove back into town, torrential downpour and small hail. When I got to about 6 blocks from my house, the rain abruptly stopped. I ended with a few sprinkles. Looks like a couple mile wide swath got between 0.50-1.0” in 20 minutes. Water was running down the corn rows. What an odd pattern we are in. 

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Yesterday was a very pleasant early summer day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 82/57 there was no rain fall and 89% of possible sunshine. There were no HDD;s and 5 CDD’s In the last 27 days only 0.04” of rain has fallen at Grand Rapids, in the last 35 days only 0.85” of rain has fallen. So it is getting very dry at this time.

The official H/L for today is 77/55 the record high of 95 was set in 1925 and the record low of 36 was set in 1945. The record rain fall amount of 4.22” fell in 1925. Most of this week looks to have warm days and comfortable nighttime lows. It looks to stay dry for most of the week There is now around a 40% chance of showers over the weekend.

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Yesterday was a very pleasant early summer day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 82/57 there was no rain fall and 89% of possible sunshine. There were no HDD;s and 5 CDD’s In the last 27 days only 0.04” of rain has fallen at Grand Rapids, in the last 35 days only 0.85” of rain has fallen. So it is getting very dry at this time.

The official H/L for today is 77/55 the record high of 95 was set in 1925 and the record low of 36 was set in 1945. The record rain fall amount of 4.22” fell in 1925. Most of this week looks to have warm days and comfortable nighttime lows. It looks to stay dry for most of the week There is now around a 40% chance of showers over the weekend.

Second longest dry stretch in recorded West Michigan history.  If it doesn’t rain in some areas this weekend we will beat that record.  
 

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Our morning low was a below average 48.1. Another mainly dry week in store across the county. High temperatures look to average near normal while overnight lows look to be below normal through much of the week. Normal highs are in the mid to upper 70's with lows in the mid to upper 50's. Our best chance of a little rain looks to be Tuesday night. There are some hints across the longer term models of a wetter period possibly developing by later this weekend into next week. 🤞🤞🤞🤞
Records for today: High 97 (1925) / Low 39 (1948) / Rain 2.39" (1970)
image.png.51c10a9da066711d23526a0c87226372.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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10 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

 

IMG_1337.mov 74.77 MB · 0 downloads  

 

Went to gas up the truck this evening at a Bosselman’s just south of town about a mile, gas 5 cents cheaper a gallon there. As I’m pulling up it starts to rain, video attached. When I finished, I drove back into town, torrential downpour and small hail. When I got to about 6 blocks from my house, the rain abruptly stopped. I ended with a few sprinkles. Looks like a couple mile wide swath got between 0.50-1.0” in 20 minutes. Water was running down the corn rows. What an odd pattern we are in. 

Welcome to the "Tropics"...hit or miss summer time storms...gotta love it...or...hate it...embrace it no matter what Mother Nature throws ya!  Glad to see your scoring "hits" and not misses.  Regarding the bolded, I have to agree, even out here we are certainly experiencing a very odd pattern for the month of June.  I can't remember a time where we have had such a cool pattern that extended into June.  The temps in the extended keep getting lowered and the locals out here are ecstatic.  To add farther, the mountains keep getting moisture as the Monsoon has started WEEKS earlier than normal.  Just amazing.

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27 minutes ago, Tom said:

Welcome to the "Tropics"...hit or miss summer time storms...gotta love it...or...hate it...embrace it no matter what Mother Nature throws ya!  Glad to see your scoring "hits" and not misses.  Regarding the bolded, I have to agree, even out here we are certainly experiencing a very odd pattern for the month of June.  I can't remember a time where we have had such a cool pattern that extended into June.  The temps in the extended keep getting lowered and the locals out here are ecstatic.  To add farther, the mountains keep getting moisture as the Monsoon has started WEEKS earlier than normal.  Just amazing.

This pattern is extremely odd… I can’t remember there being multiple days of pop-up scattered showers and storms that have moved in from the northeast (Iowa) during the month of June, however that’s what we are being dealt. The past few days have been feeling more like late July/ early August weather… widespread rain/ precipitation is still really lacking here. 

I am very glad that we picked up the decent rains this past Thursday because it’s been more “miss” since then (at least in my backyard). Yesterday was a prime example of how frustrating this pattern has been (much like CentralNebWeather’s post above) as we got caught under a very heavy downpour about 2-1/2 miles north of our house, however when we got home there was nothing more than a few sprinkles. I did pick up 0.70” of rain total last week (almost all that came on Thursday) which we will absolutely take, however we still need a lot more to improve the drought here.

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3 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

This pattern is extremely odd… I can’t remember there being multiple days of pop-up scattered showers and storms that have moved in from the northeast (Iowa) during the month of June, however that’s what we are being dealt. The past few days have been feeling more like late July/ early August weather… widespread rain/ precipitation is still really lacking here. 

I am very glad that we picked up the decent rains this past Thursday because it’s been more “miss” since then (at least in my backyard). Yesterday was a prime example of how frustrating this pattern has been as we got caught under a very heavy downpour about 2-1/2 miles north of our house, however when we got home there was nothing more than a few sprinkles. I did pick up 0.70” of rain total last week (almost all that came on Thursday) which we will absolutely take, however we still need a lot more to improve the drought here.

I noticed the radar yesterday was showing this movement from E to W and I found that really odd.  I've seen it happen on occasion in the winter months when the pattern gets blocked up but to see it in the summer is quite odd I'd say.  Anyway, this is the period I have been waiting for to see folks farther east in our Sub to begin to score some hits.  Let's see how this week plays out.  I'm rooting for you!

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14 hours ago, Andie said:

My God Stacsh!   
We’re the polar opposite. Texas should go brown in deep summer but up where you are….?!

We expect rain tonight  Getting darker now   

 

It didn’t happen for us. :(

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Took a drive around the area this morning. Corn about 12-18” tall and soybeans a couple of inches. All ditches are green and lush. Yards look amazing. The small storm last night that hit a small area on the south side of town still has some standing water in the fields. No standing water in other fields on the other sides of town. Forecast says dry for a few days, then rain and storm chances really increase from Thursday night through the weekend. 

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22 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

It finally rained here!  A tiny, but potent, cell popped over me late this afternoon.  It quickly went from nothing to heavy rain, strong wind, and pea-size hail.  I picked up 0.27" of rain.

I also was grazed on the se. edge of a brief, hot cell with just 0.19". It won't go far and didn't soak down much, but it still helps! Just a bit of hail bigger than peas. I could hear it rain and hail more, and maybe half a minute sooner, on the neighbor's steel roofed buildings across the road to the north! And for a spell it sounded like it was raining on the west half of the approximately 800'- 900' building, it was so spotty! Radar estimates show around 1" maybe 1-2 miles nw. And yes, cells generally moved from e. to w. 

Lawns are beginning to get brown and I didn't mow like I usually would at the end of the week. 

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Looks like a pretty good chance of rain here this weekend as a trough moves in. Some talk of severe weather with that still. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Smoke tsunami has arrived, sun blocked out like it’s cloudy.

Look at all this gunk moving in. Do better, Canada. 😒

gif_1686008871.gif

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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On 6/4/2023 at 7:58 PM, Phil said:

Stuff really drying out here. Been a dry pattern here since last October, and now a top-5 driest Jan-May on record since the mid-19th century. 

Looks like another wall of smoke from Canada will move in tomorrow afternoon. Have never seen so much wildfire smoke in June before.

All bad omens, I fear. This isn’t how cool/wet niño summers typically begin.IMG_3892.gif

Well, I'm noticing that the eastern flank of Niño has really spiked the last few days, too. I hope this fades and becomes central based as we go, but I could be wrong. 

I definitely do not downplay the significance of our massive rainfall deficit region either. More than anomalous would be a great way to put it.

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Like a broken record there was no rain fall yesterday. With a hazy but sunny day the H/L was 85/55. There was 79% of hazy sunshine. There were 0 HDD’s and 5 CDD’s The overnight low here in MBY so far has been 59 at the current time it is either cloudy or very hazy. For today the average H/L is 77/56 the record high of 95 was set in 1925 and the record low of 37 was set in 1958. The record rain fall amount of 1.82”  fell in 1928.

Until Saturday it looks to stay dry with highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 and lows in the low 50’s to upper 40’s so it should average just a little below average. There looks to be a pattern change starting Saturday with a better chance of rain and that could hold into the start of next week and it looks to turn cooler as well with highs in the low to mid 70’s and lows in the upper 40’s to low 50’s.

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Some smoke (from Quebec) has been drifting across our area. This will continue peaking this evening before some improvement tomorrow. There is a small chance of a shower today but not likely, Near normal temps for the rest of the week before warming to above normal by the weekend. There continues to be some signs of a pattern change starting Sunday that may lead us to more typical rain pattern across the county.
Records for today: High 99 (1899) / Low 38 (1958) / Rain 2.65" (1928)
image.png.1f5030642b06010da0870cab93582bdc.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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We’re looking at a 9 day streak of temps in the low to mid 90’s. 
Should see our first 100 after that.  
(Breaks over, back on our head). 

High humidity - 55%
High UV  11.0

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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