June 2023 Observations & Discussions

[Stacsh]

quite the dry stretch.  Looking hot and dry for the next 10 days.   Latest guidance has temps in mid 80’s warming to the 90’s next week with no relief in sight.   Moderate drought will likely turn into severe drought.  If it weren’t for the wet start to the year things would really be dire.    

[CentralNebWeather]

Dew is back up over 60 after a very pleasant week. NWS Hastings mentioning potential heavy rain tonight through tomorrow morning if a MCC develops over Eastern Colorado and rolls east. Our town is celebrating Swedish Days this weekend. Big Street Dance tonight has been moved to inside our city auditorium. We also have a very large parade tomorrow morning at 10 am. One of the bigger parades yearly in the state. Rain and storms may linger throughout the morning. 

[Timmy Supercell]

On this day last year, we had a high of 95. Today is forecast to be 76. Though it looks like another warm up is coming, with nearly every day at or above average through the rest of June.

We'll see how this summer plays out... June 16th last year was the hottest day in Ashland. I went all of July and August with mostly 80's, with a few 90-91 thrown in. But with the humidity you could say most of the days felt like at least 90.

[chescowxman]

Had a tornado warning as the storm went through and temps went from 70 degrees to 59 in 15 minutes. We lost power for a few minutes and picked up 1.05" of rain here in East Nantmeal.

[Clinton]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Would it be best to get a place on the east side of the lake?  One of the coves by Indian Point and near Moonshine Beach is what I'm thinking.  Thoughts?

I would go to Indian point!

[Phil]

On 6/13/2023 at 1:53 PM, Timmy Supercell said:

Took a break from some forums. In case anyone wondered, I didn't get any t'storms out of this last severe wx event. 

Looks like south central KY had some large hail out of it. But not as widespread as some of the events back in April or March. 

Glad to have ya back, man.

[Phil]

On 6/15/2023 at 10:04 AM, hawkstwelve said:

10-day precip anomaly from the ECMWF continues to not look too good for a large portion of the Midwest, unfortunately. Plains states might start making up for some deficits and the SE continues to look pretty wet.

Hopefully as the ridge builds into Texas over the next week we can start getting some more ridge riding storms over the top that can push more easily into the Midwest/eastern corn belt. It'd also help if we could ever fully kick out the ridge that seems to just love to sit over Ontario so far this season. There are some slight signs as we get towards the end of June but it's still a ways out. Cross your fingers, Midwest folks. 

Drought situation rapidly deteriorating here as well. Trees already dropping leaves, grass going brown, clouds of dust being kicked up from fields and construction sites.

Models have already yanked away most precipitation thru D10, been a theme for awhile now. This evening is basically our only realistic shot at meaningful rain in sight. If it busts..major ouch.

2 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

On this day last year, we had a high of 95. Today is forecast to be 76. Though it looks like another warm up is coming, with nearly every day at or above average through the rest of June.

We'll see how this summer plays out... June 16th last year was the hottest day in Ashland. I went all of July and August with mostly 80's, with a few 90-91 thrown in. But with the humidity you could say most of the days felt like at least 90.

The lack of heat/humidity thus far has been magnificent. Nicest start to summer I can recall in my lifetime.

Only downside is the lack of convection here. Haven’t even heard thunder yet (minus a few distant rumbles). Most of our “cool” summer patterns are very wet/stormy, so this is extremely unusual.

That said, I have a hunch this pattern is on borrowed time. Gets exponentially more difficult to keep the summer monster down after the solstice. Hopefully when it does heat up it will start raining too. Otherwise trees will be bare before the end of September.

[Tom]

Shoutout to our OK boys!  Driving through OKC as we speak.  I can definitely feel the humidity.  Kinda like it!  The desert life dried me out.

[CentralNebWeather]

Getting some surprise storms popping up in the area now, 3:30 pm. This is not associated with the potential mesoscale system that is still forecasted to roll through later tonight and into the morning hours. 

[Andie]

Sitting at 94 and Will top out at 95.  
Dew at 75 ugh  Humidity 55% 

Pretty miserable. They keep threatening us with rain but everyone in Fort Worth isn’t buying it  

Now it’s Excessive Heat Warnings

Indexes of 110-117 !   

 

Already having grass fires.  
Firefighter near Denton Texas rescued a fawn from a grassfire. After resuscitating the baby they turned it over to wildlife rescue.  Having been touched by human hands the mother would abandon the fawn. 

[CentralNebWeather]

35 minutes ago, Tom said:

Shoutout to our OK boys!  Driving through OKC as we speak.  I can definitely feel the humidity.  Kinda like it!  The desert life dried me out.

Keep coming north @Tom, we have some low 60’s dews for you.

[CentralNebWeather]

Severe storm here with hail. My goodness. Hope the crops are ok. 

 

 

[Blizzard777]

On 6/15/2023 at 7:18 AM, hawkstwelve said:

In the meantime, looking like a hot one here today with highs in the low/mid 90s. Already up to 82.

We have a shot at some thunderstorms tomorrow night. Shear looks pretty meager so probably none of the severe type, which seems to be a theme so far this season. Hopefully we can still get some decent boomers though that can tap into the 1.5+ inches of precipitable water in the atmosphere and drop some good rains. 

I’m trying to do one more road-trip into the mid west within the next two weeks.  
Watching the maps closely to see where my best chance is to see the action .  

[CentralNebWeather]

Have had right at 1.0” of rain so far as of 8 pm. Will see how much more comes later if the mesoscale complex develops. Forecast says 1-2” potential overnight. 

[hawkstwelve]

Well nothing materialized at all here tonight. Lame. Hope tomorrow fares better.

[CentralNebWeather]

This is the complex moving northeast. Might be woken up later. 

[Black Hole]

Yesterday's storms (the 15th) all died on their way into Tulsa so I got nothing with that. I did get a brief heavy shower the next morning at least. I see SPC has us under an enhanced risk for tonight (17th-18th). It does look more promising than most of the set ups this year but as always, we will see. 

Storms will roll in from the northwest in a favorable environment (good instability, mid level shear). There may also be a boundary coming in from the south that will increase the moisture/shear/convergence as the LLJ kicks in during the evening. Anyway, here is to hoping. 

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 76/55 there was 54% of possible sunshine. There were 0 HDD’s and 1 CDD’s The overnight low here in MBY so far is 50. For today the average H/L is 80/59 the record high of 95 was set in 1992 and 1994 (it should be noted that 1992 was a very cool summer so even in cool summers there can be some hot days) the record low of 40 was set in 1980. The record rain fall of 2.01” fell in 1996 and 1956. Since May 9th there has been just 0.24” of rain fall at Grand Rapids. 0.31” at Lansing, 0.54” at Holland and 0.57” at Muskegon. This is one of the driest end of Spring and start of summer in west Michigan history.

[Bryan1117]

10 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Have had right at 1.0” of rain so far as of 8 pm. Will see how much more comes later if the mesoscale complex develops. Forecast says 1-2” potential overnight. 

Send the rain to the east where we need it, darn it… haha! Still nothing here as once again everything dies off once it approaches Omaha/ Lincoln (shocker!).

Hoping we get some rain today, looks like a decent chance this afternoon, however I know better to count on moisture anymore… the CWS being in town seems to always help our chances of rain and storms at least.

 

[Tom]

Good morning from Branson, MO!  We arrived just in the nick of time to have enough daylight to see Table Rock Lake as we took Hwy 165 along the shoreline into town.  I ended up getting a real good last minute deal on Air BNB for a condo at Fall Creek Condo's along the river just SW of town.  It took a good 9.5 hours due to some traffic in OK from road work, but nonetheless, the weather cooperated the whole time.  As we drove into AR, I really loved the landscape and beauty of all the pine trees, forests, and lush landscape along with the big rolling hills.  We took some back roads right before we approached Fayetteville and cruised through small towns over the northern part of AR.  It was a wonderful experience seeing all the small farms that had horses and cows on their properties.  I was surprised to see so many developments of beautiful large modern new homes.  There were at least 10 or more communities that were built up and still more growth to come.  Very interesting to see the rural parts growing so much.

 

Ok, now back to some weather...it is a moist 62F/62F with a lot of dew and a thick layer of low stratus.  Kinda reminds of the "June Gloom" pattern on the So Cal coast.  Heading up into the upper 80's today along with partly cloudy skies.  Very late tonight into Sun morning will bring a very good chance of rain and storms into Father's Day.  

[hawkstwelve]

 

[Tom]

I literally drove through the ENHANCED corridor yesterday and was envisioning monster super cells crossing over I-40.  This looks like a prime set up...

[Tom]

The LR call for the SW Ridge to Fire Up end of June into July is starting to shine...was this a timely exit of the Valley?  Yes!  Moreover, I'm encouraged that the 500mb pattern will deliver "Ridge Rider's" across the Central CONUS.   I'm sure many of you are going to keep a watchful eye, including myself, to see some storms fire up as this will be a classic scenario that should deliver long lasting Derecho's.  The 1st 110F day of the season is looking likely later this month in PHX.

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

Forgot to share some of our pictures from the Palisades State Park last weekend. What a beautiful area right outside of Sioux Falls! Feels like you're in a completely different place - almost like Thailand or something with towering Sioux Quartzite rocks coming straight out of the water and lush vegetation everywhere.

Highly recommend a visit!

[CentralNebWeather]

Another 0.75” this early morning. Looks like around 1.85” total, give or take from local reports. As always, not everyone got this much. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Sitting in our lawn chairs at our parade here in town. Rain has stopped. Now cloudy and cool, only 56 degrees. Everyone dressed in jackets and sweatshirts. 

[Andie]

Dog days are here. It would appear our week is set. 
Highs 98-100

Dew points and Humidity : You guessed it: High

UV: uh-huh. High   Stay Cool!

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Talked to people at the parade today. Several had 2-3” or more last night. Unfortunately, it looks like there was some hail damage in my area. One farmer said it doesn’t look good just north of town due to hail damage and flooded fields. 

[Bryan1117]

Another miss on the rain… had a few sprinkles however most of the rain dissipated this morning and then storms blew up in Iowa this afternoon - this pattern just sucks!

[Andie]

98 today  50/50 chance of severe T storms.
Likely a week of 98s. Hoping for that rain to blow up this evening.  Won’t hold my breath.  

 

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Another miss on the rain… had a few sprinkles however most of the rain dissipated this morning and then storms blew up in Iowa this afternoon - this pattern just sucks!

Just isn’t fair. I know, life isn’t fair sometimes. I see Eastern Colorado, Western Kansas, and Southwest Nebraska are having their wettest stretch in history over the last couple months according to met. Eric Snodgrass. To see the the precipitation flip in Nebraska from east to west is really unbelievable. I’ve been fortunate to get the rains we’ve had. Might be more favorable for your area later next week from what Snodgrass said in his video below. 
 

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

Today I drove from Ottumwa  Iowa to Dayton Ohio. I honestly  have never seen 450 miles of burned up lawns in mid June.  Only the north side of Indianapolis  looked the normal  lush  green for mid June. Im sure after a weak snow season  and now this literally  1000s of small landscape  companies  are hurting. My company  is okay since we do lots of other things like dirt work etc. But the real CONCERN FOR ALL  should  be the affect this could have on food cost.  I literally  have seen very little  corn or soybeans  east of Desmoines  that may get near the customary  yields in recent years.  Feeding animals  like beef, pork, poultry will become extremely  expensive  if this doesn't  turn around.  Iowa and Illinois  has decent crops given the rain deficits but cant wait much longer. And east of indy the planting seems to have been delayed so therefore  is not good and also at extreme  risk to me.

[CentralNebWeather]

Nebraska precipitation should be flipped in a typical year. Very odd 9 months for sure. 

[Madtown]

looks like no rain for the next 10 days....brutal 

[Andie]

Looks like Clinton in Oklahoma is getting my rain!!

Our storms went around us. Some nice air out of it but got skunked on the rain.

[Stormy]

A nice line of storms on my doorstep for the first in a long time. Sad to see it's mostly or totally missing Ottumwa. Hoping for a miracle 1". We desperately need it for the crops! 

[Stormy]

23 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Sitting in our lawn chairs at our parade here in town. Rain has stopped. Now cloudy and cool, only 56 degrees. Everyone dressed in jackets and sweatshirts. 

That's what I did in our local town yesterday (Sat.) afternoon as well. Some of our family was in the parade. Also watched locals play softball and play music. I love summer!

[Stormy]

Well had a decent downpour with several loud cracks of thunder, but the line quickly weakened as it arrived. On and off showers may continue a bit longer, but may not even get half an inch, which doesn't go far when it's this dry! 

[Black Hole]

I'll try and add some more details later, but we got absolutely raked here in Tulsa tonight by a derecho. It was warned for winds of up to 100 mph with the radar showing 120-130 mph winds just off the surface as it was coming in. Based on the damage we are seeing that 100 might have verified too. 

Right around my office we have a few trees down, with some metal poles that were bent. The bank next door had a wall blown down on the drive through. I saw several transforms blow right outside the office.  It was pretty nutty. The word/speculation is that power might be out for several days in the worst of the damage. 

[Tom]

6 hours ago, Andie said:

Looks like Clinton in Oklahoma is getting my rain!!

Our storms went around us. Some nice air out of it but got skunked on the rain.

Checking into the severe wx reports, it appears @OKwx2k4 got hail and wind out of that line of storms... @Clinton is up in W MO area.... 

 

@Black Hole, overnight storms are the worst...that line eventually made it up to Branson around 3:30am and had some loud claps our rolling thunder.  Woke me up!  Glad your safe and have power...No Power in a hot and humid airmass is NOT fun.