Pacific Northwest Weather -June 2023

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

With peak fall smoke numbers routinely in the 500s and now peak spring grass pollen numbers in the 1,300s, we Eugenians have a hard time feeling much sympathy for the East Coasters complaining about a little Canadian wildfire smoke.

Good thing I developed tough lungs growing up in inland SoCal during the peak smog years of the 1970s.

Speaking of which, it amuses me when I see all the hysteria over SoCal air quality numbers that are at least 90% better than they were 50 years ago. These people have no concept of how much better they have it today.

 

Oh... and get off my lawn.

The air in SoCal is sooooo much cleaner now than even when we lived there in the 90s.    The difference is truly amazing.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Grotesque. What was the concentration out there in μg/m^3?

I know Silverton had numbers in the 500-600 range during the Beachie Creek Fire. That one was absolutely ridiculous. 

We stayed in Eugene during the evacuation and there was visible ash falling for several days with visibility under a mile for much of that time. We went to the coast once during that event, and even at Florence on the Central Oregon coast visibility was about 1/4 mile with a mixture of fog and marine layer. 

Temps were forecast in the 90s that week, but EUG ended up putting up several highs in the mid-60s instead. 

The day we evacuated the smoke was horrific up here, however, when we came back about a week later, it was much thinner up here and temps were about 20 degrees warmer than in the valley. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

I guess smoke is to east coasters as humidity is to west coasters. Foreign. Don’t know how y’all live with this .

Our pollen counts demolish yours though. 

We never had smoke here during the summer growing up in the 1990s and early 2000s, aside from the annual field burns which were much more common back then. I remember seeing columns of smoke from a couple fires which were over in Central Oregon, but it never settled into the WV. I was told it got pretty smokey during the 2002 Biscuit Fire, but I was in Ohio that summer. 

[TT-SEA]

79 at SEA... looks like they will finally reach 80 again today.   81 here with the deepest blue sky possible.   Suppose we should enjoy that while it lasts.    Certainly getting our money's worth in terms of sunshine during the longest days of the year.

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

79 at SEA... looks like they will finally reach 80 again today.   81 here with the deepest blue sky possible.   Suppose we should enjoy that while it lasts.    Certainly getting our money's worth in terms of sunshine during the longest days of the year.

Been an absolutely torturous 10 day stretch for them.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Been an absolutely torturous 10 day stretch for them.

Its been gorgeous!   

[Omegaraptor]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Been an absolutely torturous 10 day stretch for them.

Water temp at Lake Sandwich still at only 70F. Gonna have to wait a little longer for Cancun / Dominican Republic conditions it seemz.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Water temp at Lake Sandwich still at only 70F. Gonna have to wait a little longer for Cancun / Dominican Republic conditions it seemz.

Yes... I see it plateaued with the recent pleasant weather.   70 degree water temp is still nice but 75-78 is best.   It will probably be there from late June through early September.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Grotesque. What was the concentration out there in μg/m^3?

600+ and we had a stretch of a week over 500+ ppm in Sept 2020. Worst AQI on earth during that stretch. Had to be inside with a gas mask on.

In bad fire years we have ash falling and it looks like we live in the ‘Upside Down’

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My buddy in NYC just sent me this. He said it reminds him of Oregon. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not even close to what we have seen out here pretty much every summer since 2015. Not impressed. 

those guys over there are soooo soft.  is concerning though my late summer/early fall refuge in the Carolinas may be becoming a thing of the past.

[GHweatherChris]

Just a typical June 50 degree temp spread here today, 85/35.

[Phishy Wx]

54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The air in SoCal is sooooo much cleaner now than even when we lived there in the 90s.    The difference is truly amazing.   

government regulation is an amazing thing when used for mass societal benefit said no republicans ever

[Phishy Wx]

55 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know Silverton had numbers in the 500-600 range during the Beachie Creek Fire. That one was absolutely ridiculous. 

We stayed in Eugene during the evacuation and there was visible ash falling for several days with visibility under a mile for much of that time. We went to the coast once during that event, and even at Florence on the Central Oregon coast visibility was about 1/4 mile with a mixture of fog and marine layer. 

Temps were forecast in the 90s that week, but EUG ended up putting up several highs in the mid-60s instead. 

The day we evacuated the smoke was horrific up here, however, when we came back about a week later, it was much thinner up here and temps were about 20 degrees warmer than in the valley. 

spokane had a day in 2020 I think it was (hard to keep track these days) that was forecast to be 92 and it ended up being like 70 due to thick smoke.  so bad we retreated to and stayed in the basement with the door closed for 3 days in august I think it was.

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

those guys over there are soooo soft.  is concerning though my late summer/early fall refuge in the Carolinas may be becoming a thing of the past.

Lol that’s what I say about my west coast family when they visit for the 4th of July and bring spray bottles filled with ice water to the fireworks show.

I won’t confirm or deny whether I realized that was a good idea and did it myself the next year.

[Phil]

NYC looks gunky.

https://twitter.com/bnonews/status/1666218049395990528?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ
 

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at 80 on the hour... ending a long 10-day stretch of sub-80 weather during our extended period of death ridging.   

[TT-SEA]

Up to 83 in North Bend... but humidity is low and there is a breeze so its pretty nice out there.

[TT-SEA]

In the latest Ag Weather update they pointed out how well the MJO has predicted the overall pattern... being stuck in phase 8 recently.   The 'June - Positive ENSO - MJO Phase 8' map shows CA troughing, northern plains ridging, and east coast troughing.    Really close match to what has been happening.    

Eric said the MJO is shifting now but likely will head back into phases 7-8-1 later in the month.   Apparently this is bad news for Midwest farmers dealing with a worsening drought situation.   Also a drier than normal pattern in the PNW.

[MossMan]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

I guess smoke is to east coasters as humidity is to west coasters. Foreign. Don’t know how y’all live with this shit.

Our pollen counts demolish yours though. 

Water sports are great in those conditions…You should try it! (That was the only day it was tolerable, we were stuck inside for the rest of that trip) 

[TT-SEA]

81/55 day at SEA.

[Phil]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In the latest Ag Weather update they pointed out how well the MJO has predicted the overall pattern... being stuck in phase 8 recently.   The 'June - Positive ENSO - MJO Phase 8' map shows CA troughing, northern plains ridging, and east coast troughing.    Really close match to what has been happening.    

Eric said the MJO is shifting now but likely will head back into phases 7-8-1 later in the month.   Apparently this is bad news for Midwest farmers dealing with a worsening drought situation.   Also a drier than normal pattern in the PNW.

Given juxtaposition of ER and low pass signal in tandem w/ MJO I don’t think the current pattern will resurface for awhile, once it ends (mid-June). At least not in this exact form.

STJ shifts a bit poleward and the big ridge leaves W-Canada. But that’s actually a warmer pattern for the lower-48, especially the Deep South/SE US.

Meanwhile the cool anomalies in the SW US will probably expand into much of the intermountain west and PNW/BC, at least into late June/early July, before warmth/ridging tries to return to W-Canada in mid/late July.

[Omegaraptor]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Given juxtaposition of ER and low pass signal in tandem w/ MJO I don’t think the current pattern will resurface for awhile, once it ends (mid-June). At least not in this exact form.

STJ shifts a bit poleward and the big ridge leaves W-Canada. But that’s actually a warmer pattern for the lower-48, especially the Deep South/SE US.

Meanwhile the cool anomalies in the SW US will probably expand into much of the intermountain west and PNW/BC, at least into late June/early July, before warmth/ridging tries to return to W-Canada in mid/late July.

Imagine if after all this warmth and dryness we have a washout Fourth. Would actually be pretty f*cking hilarious

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Imagine if after all this warmth and dryness we have a washout Fourth. Would actually be pretty f*cking hilarious

Careful with that Tim trigger...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Boom!! 90F-burger for Eugene-Springfield

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Imagine if after all this warmth and dryness we have a washout Fourth. Would actually be pretty f*cking hilarious

I sort of expect it at this point.  

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Imagine if after all this warmth and dryness we have a washout Fourth. Would actually be pretty f*cking hilarious

From Dr. Roundy’s site: Analog composite based on projected tropical forcing (LP+ER+MJO) rolled forward to 7/4.

Of course ridging returns to W-Canada 2nd half of July, assuming this is correct.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

From Dr. Roundy’s site: Analog composite based on projected tropical forcing (LP+ER+MJO) rolled forward to 7/4.

Of course ridging returns to W-Canada 2nd half of July, assuming this is correct.

With troughing all the way down through the the SW... that might actually result in very pleasant weather up here.   Troughing across the North Pacific and into the PNW with ridging in CA is usually what brings us our wettest and gloomiest summer patterns.   

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Careful with that Tim trigger...

He’s booked reservations in all 50 states just in case.

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

With troughing all the way down through the the SW... that might actually result in very pleasant weather up here.   Troughing across the North Pacific and into the PNW with ridging in CA is usually what brings us our wettest and gloomiest summer patterns.   

Could be. I can’t decipher details like that from an analog composite 4+ weeks out, but hat tip to anyone who can.

[Omegaraptor]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

From Dr. Roundy’s site: Analog composite based on projected tropical forcing (LP+ER+MJO) rolled forward to 7/4.

Of course ridging returns to W-Canada 2nd half of July, assuming this is correct.

Good opportunity for the Pasco tourism board to make their fireworks show extra special this year.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Could be. I can’t decipher details like that from an analog composite 4+ weeks out, but hat tip to anyone who can.

Is your map more up to date?   I just went to Roundy's site to view latest update and this is what I see for the 4th of July... a little different.    

[TT-SEA]

Edit... I see your map has more variables.

Looks like it updates daily?   I will have to start tracking it to see how well it does.

[T-Town]

Surprisingly lively and voluminous day on the forum. 

[TT-SEA]

In terms of a long dry spell from mid-May through mid-June with a developing Nino... 2009 is a pretty good match for what we have seen recently.    SEA went just about 1 month with no rain at all from 5/19 through 6/18 in 2009 which is pretty rare at this time of year.   Then we had a 10-day stretch of cooler weather and occasional rain.    But early July was hot again... 87 on the 4th that year.

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Is your map more up to date?   I just went to Roundy's site to view latest update and this is what I see for the 4th of July... a little different.    

That’s just the low pass, without MJO/ER components.

See the header.

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Edit... I see your map has more variables.

Looks like it updates daily?   I will have to start tracking it to see how well it does.

Sorry missed this update. Yes it does indeed.

[TT-SEA]

My son is at a friend's cabin on Mason Lake north of Shelton... looks beautiful!   Had to look it up on a map.  

[Phil]

There’s also this one (MJO component isolated) which has been remarkably accurate.

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In terms of a long dry spell from mid-May through mid-June with a developing Nino... 2009 is a pretty good match for what we have seen recently.    SEA went just about 1 month with no rain at all from 5/19 through 6/18 in 2009 which is pretty rare at this time of year.   Then we had a 10-day stretch of cooler weather and occasional rain.    But early July was hot again... 87 on the 4th that year.

2002 analog is screaming at me now. That was the only other year we had this kind of smoke coming from E-Canada. And it just so happened to be coming off a 3+ year -ENSO, near solar max. Oh, and it’s the last time we had a drought like this going into an El Niño, as well.

Look at this map from July 2002 and you’d think it was from today.