Phil Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, Phil said: There’s also this one (MJO component isolated) which has been remarkably accurate. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html Slide your fingers on the sides of the image to run through the progression. Goes out to mid-August. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 38 minutes ago, Phil said: Slide your fingers on the sides of the image to run through the progression. Goes out to mid-August. Little different look for early July... sort of looks like what we had last year. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 54 minutes ago, Phil said: 2002 analog is screaming at me now. That was the only other year we had this kind of smoke coming from E-Canada. And it just so happened to be coming off a 3+ year -ENSO, near solar max. Oh, and it’s the last time we had a drought like this going into an El Niño, as well. Look at this map from July 2002 and you’d think it was from today. This would have been a completely sunny and bright day otherwise! Definitely had stickage as well! 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 Where is the big cutoff low over California? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Little different look for early July... sort of looks like what we had last year. I just had another flashback to my 1985 self trying to watch a scrambled Cinemax. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 Mt. St Helens racketing up the humor again https://twitter.com/MtStHelensWA/status/1666081472963563520?s=20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Phil said: 2002 analog is screaming at me now. That was the only other year we had this kind of smoke coming from E-Canada. And it just so happened to be coming off a 3+ year -ENSO, near solar max. Oh, and it’s the last time we had a drought like this going into an El Niño, as well. Look at this map from July 2002 and you’d think it was from today. I lived in NH at the time in summer of 2002 and it was the first time in my life I experienced air quality issue from wildfires having grown up in the Carolinas 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 What if the big Canadian ridge were centered directly over the PNW? You could get 4 consecutive weeks or more of 100 or higher in Portland. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 1 hour ago, MossMan said: I just had another flashback to my 1985 self trying to watch a scrambled Cinemax. It was Spectrum for us in Minnesota. Every once in awhile you would get breaks in the scrambling... made it so worth sitting there for 3 hours getting dizzy from the patterns on the screen. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted June 7, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 Ended up with a 91/50 day here. 4th 90+ of the season at this location (we had 88’s or 89’s on a few days back in mid May when PDX did it). Today was the 6th 90+ in this very young warm season there. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 Only 1 day below 70 at SEA on the 00Z GFS (no days below 70 on the 00Z GEFS). Also the 00Z ECMWF is not digging that trough next week as much as previous runs showed. ECMWF just shows a weak marine intrusion on Tuesday morning and then the marine layer is scoured out again and it's back to sunny. This dry spell is becoming quite noteworthy and unusual for so early in the season. Picked up right where we left off last fall. 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 17 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Ended up with a 91/50 day here. 4th 90+ of the season at this location (we had 88’s or 89’s on a few days back in mid May when PDX did it). Today was the 6th 90+ in this very young warm season there. We also managed 90 in late April here which was crazy, hopefully we won't see too many more later this summer 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 10-day forecast looks good for Everett. Wish we had some rain... Nothing too hot expect for Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 6 hours ago, TT-SEA said: In terms of a long dry spell from mid-May through mid-June with a developing Nino... 2009 is a pretty good match for what we have seen recently. SEA went just about 1 month with no rain at all from 5/19 through 6/18 in 2009 which is pretty rare at this time of year. Then we had a 10-day stretch of cooler weather and occasional rain. But early July was hot again... 87 on the 4th that year. 2009, pleasant in late July that year Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted June 7, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 Milder low of 59 so far this morning. Looks like the first 60+ morning of the month at PDX. 00z Euro failed to show really any sort of meaningful cool down. Looks like the operational is an outlier for now in that regard, but wouldn’t surprise me to see it lead the way. Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 The second half of the month could end up much cooler and cloudier... but so far this June is reminding of 2015 in terms of sunshine and consistent warmth. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YahRaEl Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 Quote Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft ☥𓂀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 The app is still calling for rain on Friday! Also today is the warmest day for the foreseeable future. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, MossMan said: The app is still calling for rain on Friday! Also today is the warmest day for the foreseeable future. Models have been hinting at some light rain north of Seattle this weekend but not nearly enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 Didn’t make it to 80 here yesterday…78/51 temp spread. Low of 51 this morning but we should hit the 80s pretty easily this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 Just now, TacomaWx said: Models have been hinting at some light rain north of Seattle this weekend but not nearly enough. I am pretty skeptical... ECMWF has been trending away from rain on the west side on Friday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: I am pretty skeptical... ECMWF has been trending away from rain on the west side on Friday. Not surprising at all. Have been hoping this summer might end up like the 2019 warm season when we flipped to cooler wetter weather in mid summer but so far there’s no sign of that happening yet. You’re probably right about getting a cooler cloudier pattern at some point this month or in early July though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Models have been hinting at some light rain north of Seattle this weekend but not nearly enough. I will take even 5 minutes of drizzle…Anything! 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 Marine layer in Eugene. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 HCS??? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: HCS??? ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 8 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Only 1 day below 70 at SEA on the 00Z GFS (no days below 70 on the 00Z GEFS). Also the 00Z ECMWF is not digging that trough next week as much as previous runs showed. ECMWF just shows a weak marine intrusion on Tuesday morning and then the marine layer is scoured out again and it's back to sunny. This dry spell is becoming quite noteworthy and unusual for so early in the season. Picked up right where we left off last fall. Since I have lived here, once we get in this pattern it doesn’t rain again until September. I know y’all keep sharing stories of the past with summer rain, but I don’t see it happening Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, Deweydog said: HCS??? It’s coming!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 Air quality is definitely hazy and degraded this morning, probably from the Cameron Bluffs Fire that has closed Highway 4 on the Vancouver Island. And so smoke season begins in early June this year. 1 3 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 19 minutes ago, MossMan said: I will take even 5 minutes of drizzle…Anything! About 5 minutes of drizzle is basically all I am expecting. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 14 hours ago, TT-SEA said: With troughing all the way down through the the SW... that might actually result in very pleasant weather up here. Troughing across the North Pacific and into the PNW with ridging in CA is usually what brings us our wettest and gloomiest summer patterns. Promises, promises. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: Since I have lived here, once we get in this pattern it doesn’t rain again until September. I know y’all keep sharing stories of the past with summer rain, but I don’t see it happening I can tell you even the crazy hot summer of 2015 did have some meaningful rain events in July and August. In fact I think August 2015 is in the top 5 wettest at SEA even though the majority of the month was hot and sunny. There were 3 separate significant rain events in the Seattle area that month. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 12Z ICON is much more optimistic about rain on Friday. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 This is just wrong. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Milder low of 59 so far this morning. Looks like the first 60+ morning of the month at PDX. 00z Euro failed to show really any sort of meaningful cool down. Looks like the operational is an outlier for now in that regard, but wouldn’t surprise me to see it lead the way. I suspect that was a one-off outlier, but pattern changes are difficult to predict/model, so Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I can tell you even the crazy hot summer of 2015 did have some meaningful rain events in July and August. In fact I think August 2015 is in the top 5 wettest at SEA even though the majority of the month was hot and sunny. There were 3 separate significant rain events in the Seattle area that month. But what is top 5 wet for August? 6 raindrops? 2 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Phil said: This is just wrong. You don't like the humidity on the East Coast, so now you get to experience West Coast style weather. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ICON is much more optimistic about rain on Friday. This would be pretty awesome 5 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 18 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Entire garden is doing so well... beyond my expectations. I love your garden. 3 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 7, 2023 Report Share Posted June 7, 2023 13 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said: You don't like the humidity on the East Coast, so now you get to experience West Coast style weather. We must have soft lungs because both my gf and I have been coughing intermittently since yesterday afternoon. High humidity is more physically debilitating, but I can always go indoors to avoid it if necessary. Meanwhile this shit is just everywhere, even indoors, despite the air filters running nonstop. 1 1 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.