Pacific Northwest Weather -June 2023

[TacomaWx]

Got down to 52 this morning 55 now. Looks like unless maybe some thunderstorm activity drops a little rain here tomorrow we will finish June with just 0.45” of rain. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Summer torch recommences on the 06z around July 2nd

Like we could avoid it in this climate. 

[TacomaWx]

We’re running a bit cooler than normal at -0.9F this month but I’m sure this month won’t finish below normal. 

[YahRaEl]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We’re running a bit cooler than normal at -0.9F this month but I’m sure this month won’t finish below normal. 

Here in Eastside Tacoma 71-73° is average at this point of June, 72° true main average but I usually consider a degree below and a degree above the main average to still be about average.

[YahRaEl]

51° low this morning 55° now here at Eastside Tacoma.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

From now on when people offer sulfur aerosol injections as a solution to climate change, I'll just show them this graph.

I read one of the reasons parts of the Atlantic are so warm right now is the lack of dust from the Sahara blowing out over the ocean. Which usually helps block some radiation and keep temps in check. 

[YahRaEl]

Tempest, Davis, Rainwise, WeatherBug, WSDOT and AWOS/ASOS stations are the best I don't take any data information from any other stations especially Ambient and AcuRite they are terrible. Tho with any weather stations placement is very important also a reason for many inaccurate readings from personal home stations.

Realized that yesterday when stations here in Eastside Tacoma was 71-73  one showed 76°.

[Chewbacca Defense]

27 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

Tempest, Davis, Rainwise, WeatherBug, WSDOT and AWOS/ASOS stations are the best I don't take any data information from any other stations especially Ambient and AcuRite they are terrible. Tho with any weather stations placement is very important also a reason for many inaccurate readings from personal home stations.

Acurite is definitely not a good station from my experience, but I have actually had very good luck with my Ambient station.  I did a lot of testing with the temperature reading by placing sensors in other locations (shaded) and they were all within 1-2 degrees of each other.  The only problem with my station is getting accurate wind readings.  I am backed up against a green belt to the south, and my 2 story house is to the north.  The station is offset enough to get a clean shot when we have the Frazier outflows, but our good ole southerly windstorms don't register accurately. 

I haven't been able to convince my wife to let me mount it on the roof, but if I did that it would be 40+ feet in the air and a real b*tch to clean and maintain.

I've been interested in getting a Tempest, but I don't like not having a display in the house.  I recently found a guy who set something up to run on a Raspberry pi & touchscreen, so the Tempest could be back in play.  I might also push for a rooftop mount at that point as it would not really require any maintenance.

 

I suppose to really do it right, I would need to get a set up (presumably Davis) which would allow me to get the wind sensors up on the roof and the temp and rain sensors down closer to the ground.  My biggest problem with Davis is you have to spend a bunch of money on the instruments (which do seem to be worth it) but then you have to fork over another sizeable chunk of change to access/log the data. 

 

[Blizzard777]

Well, here I sit at home trying to figure out a direction for storm chasing. I really don’t want to get pummeled with 1 inch hail and a strobe light of unidentifiable lightning.  I’m looking to be in the right location for some unique formations and of course the possibilities of a twister.  Of course I want to be on my terms in these storms just out of reach with blue skies complimenting the storms!   lol….from my experience so far I haven’t had any luck. I just get swamped in heavy rain and dark clouds. I suppose I’m looking for that sweet area of pop up storms like Texas had yesterday (unfortunately 4 lives were taken in this storm as well  ). 
I’ve been watching Nutrien’s minute report, Ryan Halls outlooks and of course Michael Snyders tubes so I know where the short waves are moving but that’s not the type of storm I want to chase.  I may head towards Leavenworth for a short term fix with the possibilities of storms in the Cascades. Their always picturesque 

[the_convergence_zone]

37 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I read one of the reasons parts of the Atlantic are so warm right now is the lack of dust from the Sahara blowing out over the ocean. Which usually helps block some radiation and keep temps in check. 

It looks like there are ~5 different things going on, it's going to take some detailed studies to sort them all out. Considering all of the global oceans are on fire and the Antarctic sea ice anomaly is nearly as crazy as the Atlantic, the most logical explanation is that global temperatures have shot up during the transition to +ENSO with the added climate change of the last 3 years thrown on top of that. Then you have some of these oceanic oscillations being in unusual states following La Niña which Phil can speak to far better than I can. 

Perhaps more interestingly, there are three other potential factors which could explain why the anomalies are so, so far above what might be expected. Those are (1) extra water vapor in the stratosphere from the Hunga Tonga volcano; (2) changes in sulphur emissions of oceanic container ships as a result of a new rule that went into effect in 2020 (thus reducing the aerosol cooling effect); and (3) the lack of dust over the Atlantic. For the sake of humanity I hope that these three are making significant contributions to the anomaly in the Atlantic, but the scary thing is that there are good arguments that all three may be minor and that it's almost all just climate change and ENSO. Which would be terrifying. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Got down to 52 this morning 55 now. Looks like unless maybe some thunderstorm activity drops a little rain here tomorrow we will finish June with just 0.45” of rain. 

Tim's area (of course) looks like it will finish closest to normal, but still a very dry month for most of the area. Would have been a top tier dry June for just about everyone if not for the ULL last weekend.

[YahRaEl]

8 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Acurite is definitely not a good station from my experience, but I have actually had very good luck with my Ambient station.  I did a lot of testing with the temperature reading by placing sensors in other locations (shaded) and they were all within 1-2 degrees of each other.  The only problem with my station is getting accurate wind readings.  I am backed up against a green belt to the south, and my 2 story house is to the north.  The station is offset enough to get a clean shot when we have the Frazier outflows, but our good ole southerly windstorms don't register accurately. 

I haven't been able to convince my wife to let me mount it on the roof, but if I did that it would be 40+ feet in the air and a real b*tch to clean and maintain.

I've been interested in getting a Tempest, but I don't like not having a display in the house.  I recently found a guy who set something up to run on a Raspberry pi & touchscreen, so the Tempest could be back in play.  I might also push for a rooftop mount at that point as it would not really require any maintenance.

 

I suppose to really do it right, I would need to get a set up (presumably Davis) which would allow me to get the wind sensors up on the roof and the temp and rain sensors down closer to the ground.  My biggest problem with Davis is you have to spend a bunch of money on the instruments (which do seem to be worth it) but then you have to fork over another sizeable chunk of change to access/log the data. 

 

I don't own my one myself but if I did I'd have to go with tempest or Davis or if I had the money to afford it those stations that WSDOT owns are very good but are $5000+ per piece. Not the best idea. Weatherbug stations and Rainwise is D**n good to.

[Blizzard777]

Yesterday was lovely and a beautiful morning today ! Last night I got to enjoy this sunset while a pod of orcas were passing just to the right of the photo I took. I couldn’t get them in as they were across the channel.  Binoculars brought them up close and personal though

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

Yesterday was lovely and a beautiful morning today ! Last night I got to enjoy this sunset while a pod of orcas were passing just to the right of the photo I took. I couldn’t get them in as they were across the channel.  Binoculars brought them up close and personal though

Did they sink the yacht?

[YahRaEl]

Cliff Mass really loves TWC (The Weather Channel) forecast while they are pretty spot on accurate we still have to give respect to other forecast providers and models especially the NWS they try hard I know as of lately TWC has been forecasting better than them but that's cause they got money and supported by company that gives them better technology than NWS. Another good one to check out tho is Morecast. Sadly without having a subscription for pivotal weather or weatherbell I have to use Windyapp for readings from Euro, GFS, ICON, MBLUE, NAM, HRRR. And Ventusky for NBM and GEM runs. Wish I can get ahold of the GRAF model, which TWC uses most.

[the_convergence_zone]

5 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Acurite is definitely not a good station from my experience, but I have actually had very good luck with my Ambient station.  I did a lot of testing with the temperature reading by placing sensors in other locations (shaded) and they were all within 1-2 degrees of each other.  The only problem with my station is getting accurate wind readings.  I am backed up against a green belt to the south, and my 2 story house is to the north.  The station is offset enough to get a clean shot when we have the Frazier outflows, but our good ole southerly windstorms don't register accurately. 

I haven't been able to convince my wife to let me mount it on the roof, but if I did that it would be 40+ feet in the air and a real b*tch to clean and maintain.

I've been interested in getting a Tempest, but I don't like not having a display in the house.  I recently found a guy who set something up to run on a Raspberry pi & touchscreen, so the Tempest could be back in play.  I might also push for a rooftop mount at that point as it would not really require any maintenance.

 

I suppose to really do it right, I would need to get a set up (presumably Davis) which would allow me to get the wind sensors up on the roof and the temp and rain sensors down closer to the ground.  My biggest problem with Davis is you have to spend a bunch of money on the instruments (which do seem to be worth it) but then you have to fork over another sizeable chunk of change to access/log the data. 

 

A few years ago I was involved in a project where we placed all-in-one stations (ATMOS-41, which are more expensive than home stations but still pretty cheap) next to >$10,000 Mesonet stations with aspirated T/RH sensors and compared the temperature readings. They were almost identical. The solar gain corrections that the all-in-one stations use are amazing. Sensor drift is the biggest issue. The Mesonet stations have two temperature sensors and they often end up 1-2 F apart from each other. I'm not sure how much the all-in-one sensors drift but I'm sure that they do over time and you'll probably end up with a bias if you don't replace the sensors or get them calibrated (which may not be possible?). 

I have an Ambient station on my roof, it's the best $300 I have ever spent. It was super easy to get the data sent to CWOP and from there I can see it on my phone with the PWS Monitor app. The rain gauge definitely undercatches on the roof by 5-10% (I have compared it to a CoCoRAHS gauge) but considering the investment it is a bargain. And given the price if I have to replace the entire station after 5 years it's not a big deal. 

 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Colorado Springs has 9.34” of rain so far this month!

New June record, and record for any month. Previous record was 8.15" from May 2015.

Probably will end up as the wettest May/June on record for many places around here.

[Eugene-5SW]

22 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Tim's area (of course) looks like it will finish closest to normal, but still a very dry month for most of the area. Would have been a top tier dry June for just about everyone if not for the ULL last weekend.

 

#1 driest May+June on record for EUG, as noted yesterday.

At least the models are showing a very warm (EPS) to ridiculously hot (GFS 06z op) period beginning around 7/1 and lasting into eternity. That'll help.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Colorado Springs has 9.34” of rain so far this month!

Lmao, I only have 5.5" of rain for the whole year

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Lmao, I only have 5.5" of rain for the whole year

That is crazy... you live in a cold/dry place.

North Bend is at 21 inches on the year and the Cedar Lake station just to my east at 1,500 feet is almost to 40 inches this year.    And those totals are still drier than normal.   

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is crazy... you live in a cold/dry place.

North Bend is at 21 inches on the year and the Cedar Lake station just to my east at 1,500 feet is almost to 40 inches this year.    And those totals are still drier than normal.   

We are way way below normal out here. We have been dry for 12 months now. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

We are way way below normal out here. We have been dry for 12 months now. 

Plus, rain shadow versus rain forest.

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, GobBluth said:

Summer torch recommences on the 06z around July 2nd

The 12Z GFS is way more reasonable for the week of the 4th.

[Eugene-5SW]

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

We are way way below normal out here. We have been dry for 12 months now. 

Not a very long period of record at Port Angeles Fairchild Airport, but 2011, 2012, and 2013 were all drier for the water year to date than 2023.

Driest water year to date on record for BLI, though.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z GFS is way more reasonable for the week of the 4th.

Plus, still a long ways out. I know some here act as if only long-term arctic blast forecasts tend to bust, but it is not so.

[Eugene-5SW]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z GFS is way more reasonable for the week of the 4th.

We need a "whew!" emoji.

[Eugene-5SW]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Plus, still a long ways out. I know some here act as if only long-term arctic blast forecasts tend to bust, but it is not so.

True, although it sure feels like heatwaves have verified a lot more often than arctic blasts over the last dozen years or so.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

Not a very long period of record at Port Angeles Fairchild Airport, but 2011, 2012, and 2013 were all drier for the water year to date than 2023.

Driest water year to date on record for BLI, though.

PA has not been shadowed as much as my location (I am halfway between both) and Sequim this year. I only have 6 years of water records for my back yard. This year is the driest so far. 

I do have 25 years of "last frost date" records that the previous owner kept. This year was the latest for that too (6/19). 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z GFS was quite a bit warmer than the mean, though I wouldn't necessarily call it an outlier. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

True, although it sure feels like heatwaves have verified a lot more often than arctic blasts over the last dozen years or so.

I think part of it is your location, which is far better placed to capitalize on radiational cooling (so-called “fake” cold) than advective cooling (“artic blast”). I have experienced some pretty good arctic blasts in the last few years (December 2021 here had the coldest temperature in around 50 years).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

52 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think part of it is your location, which is far better placed to capitalize on radiational cooling (so-called “fake” cold) than advective cooling (“artic blast”). I have experienced some pretty good arctic blasts in the last few years (December 2021 here had the coldest temperature in around 50 years).

I would say since February 2014, places south of PDX have done horrifically in accessing true arctic air. Some of the better upper level patterns have occurred at essentially the wrong time of the season, such as February 2022 and 23, or even late February 2019. Decemember 2016 and January 2017 had modified arctic air, but wouldn't qualify as "blasts," and the main thrust of arctic air just didn't dig this far south in 2020, 2021 (X2, ice storm in February, maritime polar in December). 

[Front Ranger]

It's been a wild ride recently along the Front Range.

Dozens injured by hail storm last night at Red Rocks: 

Severe flooding and hail down in Colorado Springs yesterday: https://www.fox21news.com/weather/photos-severe-weather-and-hail-hit-colorado-springs/

Twin tornadoes on the eastern plains yesterday: 

 

 

And a blizzard on Pikes Peak last week: 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

It's been a wild ride recently along the Front Range.

Dozens injured by hail storm last night at Red Rocks: 

Severe flooding and hail down in Colorado Springs yesterday: https://www.fox21news.com/weather/photos-severe-weather-and-hail-hit-colorado-springs/

Twin tornadoes on the eastern plains yesterday: 

 

 

And a blizzard on Pikes Peak last week: 

 

WILD

[Eugene-5SW]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would say since February 2014, places south of PDX have done horrifically in accessing true arctic air. Some of the better upper level patterns have occurred at essentially the wrong time of the season, such as February 2022 and 23, or even late February 2019. Decemember 2016 and January 2017 had modified arctic air, but wouldn't qualify as "blasts," and the main thrust of arctic air just didn't dig this far south in 2020, 2021 (X2, ice storm in February, maritime polar in December). 

Undoubtedly true, but I didn't mean "arctic blasts" in a technical sense. I just meant that it seems like warm periods modeled, say, 7+ days out seem to verify more often than cool periods do. I admit a lot of it is probably perceptual.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

Undoubtedly true, but I didn't mean "arctic blasts" in a technical sense. I just meant that it seems like warm periods modeled, say, 7+ days out seem to verify more often than cool periods do. I admit a lot of it is probably perceptual.

I agree it seems that way, but it probably is largely perceptual. A really hot run like the 06z GFS doesn't generate the same level of excitement a random run showing an arctic blast in December would. If we end up with a week of 85-90 degree highs as opposed to 100-105, people won't remember it as a big bust, and the 06z GFS on June 22nd will have largely already been forgotten. 

Edited June 22, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Rubus Leucodermis]

26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

WILD

 

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

It's been a wild ride recently along the Front Range.

Dozens injured by hail storm last night at Red Rocks: 

Severe flooding and hail down in Colorado Springs yesterday: https://www.fox21news.com/weather/photos-severe-weather-and-hail-hit-colorado-springs/

Twin tornadoes on the eastern plains yesterday: 

 

 

And a blizzard on Pikes Peak last week: 

 

I don’t need the scary hail !

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I agree it seems that way, but it probably is largely perceptual. A really hot run like the 06z GFS doesn't generate the same level of excitement a random run showing an arctic blast in December would. If we end up with a week of 85-90 degree highs as opposed to 100-105, people won't remember it as a big bust, and the 06z GFS on June 22nd will have largely already been forgotten. 

Excellent point, sir.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

36 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

I don’t need the scary hail !

Stay away from the Front Ranges (most hail-prone region in North America, IIRC).

[MossMan]

Lovely Skykomish kind of day!