July 2023 PNW Observations and Discussions

[YahRaEl]

Low/Highs today

Downtown Tacoma-Hilltop 59°/83°

Eastside Tacoma 61°/86°

Lakewood (Central) 59°/79°

Spanaway 56°/87°

KTCM=McChord 59°/82°.

Also for fun I looked at Orting hit 89°

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, ChristheElohim said:

A bit out of topic but what is Jury Duty and how can I get out of it I suffer social anxiety I can't go to big gatherings I get seizures. Then with my Asperger's doing anything else not nature or weather related destroys my mind 

If you got a letter for jury duty, there is either a paper excuse form you can fill out or it can be submitted online (for example, Snohomish is electronic I forget what Island does).

Don't elect to defer to a later date because if it's like CA, they will call you at that point.

If they deny your request due to gennuine medical reasons, you can can call the juror pool number the day before and then the day of to see if you are needed. If they call you in, you will show up and wait. Then lawyers will make a very brief summary of the case and ask you to fill out a questionnaire to see if you'll be filtered out or selected. If you are selected, often there will be a recess and you can request a hardship absence which can be granted at the request of a judge.

For example, I was a college student at my local CC and I was selected to serve. This trial would have lasted for weeks at the second half of the semester during school so I would have for sure failed my classes. I wrote this reason out and the judge granted it after lunch recess. Everyone who requested an absence and had a good reason was excused.

My wife used to be excused from jury duty for having a young child. That happened at the first phase where you are sent a letter.

I'm just hoping I or my wife don't get stuck on a grand jury because we would have to travel several hours to Spokane for a long trial. That would suck.

What is the hieroglyphic character on your page?

As for weather it is 96F now and I actually enjoyed a 15 min walk in the heat. It was like a dry sauna but actually relatively enjoyable.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That's more of a convection type deal this time of year. Unusually for a budding El Niño, the next couple weeks look to feature more of a canonical -ENSO type pattern with a stout GOA ridge and throughs riding on its eastern flank from the NW into our region, bringing in unseasonable Pacific influence and maximizing northerly sfc pressure gradients. Great for marine layer days, but not so optimal for appreciable precipitation.

Monday is a special case since the trough is trending increasingly cut off, intensifying warm air/moisture advection from the south and forcing condensation on the frontal boundary. Pretty winterlike. And even then, QPF values are in the tenths of inches; hardly enough to re-green lawns.

One hope I have is in the PSCZ. That could locally boost totals substantially along the King/Snohomish county line.

Troughs happen in the summer.   Even with a Nino.

How do you explain this beast from late July 2015?

 

[YahRaEl]

5 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

If you got a letter for jury duty, there is either a paper excuse form you can fill out or it can be submitted online (for example, Snohomish is electronic I forget what Island does).

Don't elect to defer to a later date because if it's like CA, they will call you at that point.

If they deny your request due to gennuine medical reasons, you can can call the juror pool number the day before and then the day of to see if you are needed. If they call you in, you will show up and wait. Then lawyers will make a very brief summary of the case and ask you to fill out a questionnaire to see if you'll be filtered out or selected. If you are selected, often there will be a recess and you can request a hardship absence which can be granted at the request of a judge.

For example, I was a college student at my local CC and I was selected to serve. This trial would have lasted for weeks at the second half of the semester during school so I would have for sure failed my classes. I wrote this reason out and the judge granted it after lunch recess. Everyone who requested an absence and had a good reason was excused.

My wife used to be excused from jury duty for having a young child. That happened at the first phase where you are sent a letter.

I'm just hoping I or my wife don't get stuck on a grand jury because we would have to travel several hours to Spokane for a long trial. That would suck.

What is the hieroglyphic character on your page?

As for weather it is 96F now and I actually enjoyed a 15 min walk in the heat. It was like a dry sauna but actually relatively enjoyable.

The hieroglyphic character I had up was El Elyon, El Shaddai, Elohim, Anu. Heavenly Father (Most High) it was in Mesopotamia sumerians. Changed it and figured I show myself for once.

[TT-SEA]

You can tell by the visible satellite loop that the marine layer is going to make a run all the way up the Sound tonight and tomorrow is a classic set up for underachieving high temps.  It is already coming in fast from the coast.   Its that first day after a decent push that always messes with the models.    

The 18Z ECMWF shows the marine layer all the way to Bellingham tomorrow morning.

[TT-SEA]

Also worth noting... tonight is the marine push where the surface gradients flip.   The low cloud intrusion is much weaker tomorrow night into Saturday morning and then almost nothing on Sunday morning per the ECMWF.

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You can tell by the visible satellite loop that the marine layer is going to make a run all the way up the Sound tonight and tomorrow is a classic set up for underachieving high temps.  It is already coming in fast from the coast.   Its that first day after a decent push that always messes with the models.    

The 18Z ECMWF shows the marine layer all the way to Bellingham tomorrow morning.

You think the marine layer will make it up past North Bend tomorrow morning east of exit 38?

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

You think the marine layer will make it up past North Bend tomorrow morning east of exit 38?

Nah... probably up to exit 34.    North Bend should be right on the line... but as soon as you start going up to the east it will be sunny even in the early morning.   Although sometimes you see tentacles of low clouds following the river valley to the east.   Those usually vanish very quickly as soon as the sun comes up.  

[Phil]

Finally caved and purchased a high quality camcorder for weather videography (and other things).

Hoping that MCS in PA makes it here later tonight, would be a nice test run. Though good chance the mountains break it up.

[YahRaEl]

If I recall correctly SEA climatological driest day of the Summer is July 29th. It has lowest chance of precip and barely has recorded rain on that much since weayher records go back for SEA.

[SnowWillarrive]

18 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

The hieroglyphic character I had up was El Elyon, El Shaddai, Elohim, Anu. Heavenly Father (Most High) it was in Mesopotamia sumerians. Changed it and figured I show myself for once.

Just keep quoting that stuff and they will kick you outta jury duty. Don’t worry! 

[YahRaEl]

All I do is study on Ancient Civilization, Weather, Birds. Weather I been doing since age of 5, I'm now 27 basically since I moved up here to WA State. Me having Asperger's makes it hard to focus on any other subject especially without getting irritated. One would think me having that I'd have gone to school and went into Meteorology which I did have the chance but to but me not caring to learn anything else and suffering from severe anxiety stopped me.

 

[YahRaEl]

Recently I stared studying Neuroscience, Genetics, Anatomy, Phycology 

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, lowlandsnow said:

New article by Cliff Mass Cliff Mass Weather Blog

Wow... very pertinent to the discussion on here today.   And he uses OLM to prove a point.  We might want to consider if Jared is actually Cliff Mass.  

 

[YahRaEl]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... very pertinent to the discussion on here today.   And he uses OLM to prove a point.  We might want to consider if Jared is actually Cliff Mass.  

 

I wonder why not PLU in South Hill. Pierce Thun Field it's not built up like the other airfields maybe just about same as OLM 

[YahRaEl]

The PLU station south of Puyallup in South Hill 

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... very pertinent to the discussion on here today.   And he uses OLM to prove a point.  We might want to consider if Jared is actually Cliff Mass.  

 

Cliff Mass. Dude is spot on with this.

[Phil]

Near hurricane force gusts being reported with that MCS. Wonder if it’ll meet derecho criteria should it survive a few more hours.

[YahRaEl]

Can't wait for the group to get very active again during the fall/winter months and Rob gets back on here.

[TacomaWx]

82/59 today. 

[Phil]

Dulles is a UHI hotbox now. Only 4 days below 90°F so far this month (and most of those eeked by with 89°F).

But from an upper level standpoint, this pattern should be average to perhaps slightly cooler than average, which is what my station data reflects. Yet all official observing sites are running positive departures.  

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, ChristheElohim said:

I'd love to see those from out at Fort Steilacoom if the one I'm thinking about in Lakewood.

WA_Fort_Steilacoom.xlsx

[YahRaEl]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

WA_Fort_Steilacoom.xlsx 281.77 kB · 2 downloads

Dang not letting me open file

 

 

 

 

[YahRaEl]

I feel something big is coming between now and 2025. Not just in terms of life with violence, food and water shortages, and many crazy events that's gonna unfold but the sun is gonna do a very huge solar flare exploding that will be life threatening maybe end of matrix/world. The veil is being lifted I think that's the real cause of the extreme weather and heat. 

Notice uptick in UVA, UVB and UVC all over the world even here in WA

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Anecdotally... I went down a rabbit hole recently on weather from the 1300s through the 1700s and there is site that lists and talks about all the major weather events in Europe pulled from different sources.    Extreme cold and extreme wet were seemingly much more detrimental.    Some of the summers during the LIA were pretty brutal on the human population of the time.   Thankfully we have spent the last 100 years coming out of the LIA so during our lifetime the climate is more favorable.  

Is there really an ideal climate for human civilization?

Here is the UN’s list of least developed countries:

With the exception of Afghanistan (which is the way it is for a plethora of non-climate related reasons) basically all these countries are in the tropics (or very close). That’s not a coincidence. Tropical climates have two major disadvantages - their soil tends to be poor and excessively acidic for productive agriculture, and they have drastically higher rates of malaria, dengue, parasites, etc. 
 

So I guess neither extreme is good.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

Dang not letting me open file

 

 

 

 

Dang! Maybe an email attachment would work better, just let me know.

[YahRaEl]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Dang! Maybe an email attachment would work better, just let me know.

tyjahvicente@gmail.com

[Cloud]

42 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

82/59 today. 

Seems like the 81F today at SEA is TBD as the inter-hours obs after 5pm has SEA up to 82F. Will have to wait until 11 to see if that counts. The CLI data says it did count though. No sneaky warmth today. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Seems like the 81F today at SEA is TBD as the inter-hours obs after 5pm has SEA up to 82F. Will have to wait until 11 to see if that counts. The CLI data says it did count though. No sneaky warmth today. 

Don't have to wait... official high was 82.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew

[YahRaEl]

Thinking 77-83° tomorrow around Puget Sound Region. Well in the lowlands and King, Pierce, Thurston Counties*.

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Don't have to wait... official high was 82.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew

You never know… we may get a rain of fire sometime now and 11pm  

[BLI snowman]

23 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

tyjahvicente@gmail.com

Sent!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You never know… we may get a rain of fire sometime now and 11pm  

Well we know it won't go down to 81. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

Thinking 77-83° tomorrow around Puget Sound Region. Well in the lowlands and King, Pierce, Thurston Counties*.

SEA will not reach 80 tomorrow.   Mid 70s is my guess.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

27 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

With the exception of Afghanistan (which is the way it is for a plethora of non-climate related reasons) basically all these countries are in the tropics (or very close). That’s not a coincidence. Tropical climates have two major disadvantages - their soil tends to be poor and excessively acidic for productive agriculture, and they have drastically higher rates of malaria, dengue, parasites, etc.

I think that's more historical legacy than anything else. Note how it's mostly sub-Saharan Africa that's in blue. South America has no blue countries yet has lots of tropical ones. A lot of Australia is in the tropics, yet Australia is a wealthy first world nation. Singapore (also first world) is almost smack-dab on the equator, and its neighbor Malaysia is just a notch behind.

[Cloud]

Seems like the Flat Fire is something to watch for going forward. Any southern push is going to get the smoke up this way. 
 

 

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Seems like the Flat Fire is something to watch for going forward. Any southern push is going to get the smoke up this way. 
 

 

Luckily the Canadian smoke model shows northerly wind pushing the smoke from that fire straight south starting tomorrow through the entire weekend.   But the walls are closing in on us and eventually its going to get smokey here unless we can get some regionwide rain.

[ShawniganLake]

33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Don't have to wait... official high was 82.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew

82.  Bit of a chill in the air down south today.  Topped out at 91F here again today.  Same as yesterday 

[HuskyMaestro]

40 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Is there really an ideal climate for human civilization?

Here is the UN’s list of least developed countries:

With the exception of Afghanistan (which is the way it is for a plethora of non-climate related reasons) basically all these countries are in the tropics (or very close). That’s not a coincidence. Tropical climates have two major disadvantages - their soil tends to be poor and excessively acidic for productive agriculture, and they have drastically higher rates of malaria, dengue, parasites, etc. 
 

So I guess neither extreme is good.

Might I add the "resource curse" phenomenon too with plenty of these countries. Acidic soil, a lot of disease that's able to spread at higher rates, and also since plenty of these nations are along the warm tropics, they aren't forced to go into technology, diverse trade/commerce, and industry to survive, compared to countries with a massive lack of resources like Britain and Japan. I'm surprised my Philippines isn't highlighted but they did have industrialize heavily over the last few decades. 

Of course this is a huge generalization and there's a multitude of geopolitical factors over the last several centuries that people can write papers on for days, and it's debatable whether if the resource curse is a real thing, but the tropical climates doesn't help. 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

C'MON!!!