July 2023 PNW Observations and Discussions

[Chewbacca Defense]

My wife found out about the snow rain on Monday and is really excited about it.  I explained the whole rug pull phenomena and that she shouldn't get her hopes up.  She got really cheesed at me and reminded me how much the she loves the rain, and pointed out that she goes to sleep to a rainfall sounds app. I told her it doesn't matter and the rug pull is just a cold hard reality of wish casting.

Been cooler during the day over the past couple days, but we have not been cooling off at night.  While the A/C is nice for keeping things comfortable for sleeping it still sucks to have not been able to open up and let fresh air in.

[TT-SEA]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

You wake up at 5? When do you sleep?

On week days... usually by 5:30.     Try to sleep from 10-5.   Often don't see the 00Z ECMWF until morning during the week.   All shifts a couple hours on weekends.   I sleep less in the summer and more in the winter just based on daylight.   Not something I try to do... just happens naturally.  

[TT-SEA]

06Z GFS and 06Z ECMWF both took a step back with the rain... shifted north.   Really hope 12Z runs look like the 00Z runs.

[TT-SEA]

Here is 06Z ECMWF... still decent but don't like the shift north after several runs of shifting south.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is 06Z ECMWF... still decent but don't like the shift north after several runs of shifting south.  

Will it rain for Phil?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I think we can all step aside and recognize that climate change doesn't have to literally end humanity for it to be considered a preventable disaster. The benchmark for a 'climate tragedy' does not need to include wiping out a proportion of our population in the range of whole percentage points.

I’m pretty close to the doomer end of the spectrum and even I don’t believe that. (And yes, I know there are people saying it. I wince inwardly whenever I hear it.)

Humans have proven to be such an adaptable weed species that I have a very hard time imagining all of us dying out due to human-caused climate change.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 hours ago, Cloud said:

it just can’t seem to grasp the marine layer this time of year. Days like today will put this model in chaos.

I can typically tell when I walk outside when the marine layer is already in place that the GFS will be wrong with its output.

The marine layer is a form of temperature inversion, and forecast models in general struggle with inversions. They struggle with foggy wintertime inversions, too.

Virtually all of our badly busted high temperature forecasts are caused by models failing to properly model inversions.

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Marine layer actually does get into Seattle by morning per the ECMWF.    But not into my area.    It will still be an underachieving day but not as bad.

ECMWF nailed it... marine layer over Seattle but not out here.    It will be a little warmer compared to yesterday. 

[Snownerd3000]

 

[T-Town]

43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF nailed it... marine layer over Seattle but not out here.    It will be a little warmer compared to yesterday. 

Already breaking up here. Broke up around noon yesterday so well ahead of that. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Clear all night with beautiful stars and now clear and Sunny. Will be another hot day.

[TT-SEA]

36 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 

Personally I think it's enhancing the warming of the world's oceans.   I also know the emerging Nino is a factor.   But this exceeds all previous Nino years.   Even 2014/2015.   Of course it's likely related to many factors and I think Tonga is one of those factors.   Eventually they will probably be able to quantify the Tonga effect.    A couple people on here mock Tonga every time it's mentioned but I think that is just shortsighted.  We know water vapor in the stratosphere is a greenhouse gas.   It has to have some effect.   Yes... the Earth was already warming and Tonga has likely accelerated that temporarily.    I read it takes 5-10 years for water vapor to settle out of the stratosphere.    And that does not mean we won't have cold periods locally.   It's much more nuanced than that.  

It's really interesting to compare SSTA maps from previous Nino years.   Here is a striking example comparing the developing super Nino in the summer of 1982 to right now. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS shifted a little south from the 06Z run.   And also shows Monday being quite chilly due to perfect timing of the front during the day.   @Meatyorologistis not going to end up too far off with his "wild" prediction. 

[TT-SEA]

Nice improvement on the 12Z GEM compared to its 00Z run.   Good model agreement now.

[Meatyorologist]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF shows the timing of the front during the day on Monday... perfectly timed to keep it in the mid 60s.   

@Meatyorologistcall might not be too far off.

I do actually think my thoughts through...

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The marine layer is a form of temperature inversion, and forecast models in general struggle with inversions. They struggle with foggy wintertime inversions, too.

Virtually all of our badly busted high temperature forecasts are caused by models failing to properly model inversions.

On 6/30/21 (two days after the 116 in Portland) there was a pretty unforgettable forecast bust. Temps were forecast to be in the 90s that day with the center of the heat moving inland, but the sheer gradient between the ocean and the inland thermal trough caused a heavy and unforecasted marine layer to move in and last most of the day. Some places busted over 20 degrees low IIRC, which was obviously a very welcome surprise.

[Meatyorologist]

10 hours ago, Phil said:

What you say is true. However, abrupt+high amplitude climate change is the rule, not the exception. And that will not change, regardless of what we do.

The present warming is nothing, nada, zippo, compared to the violent, high amplitude warmings (and coolings) that have occurred over just the last 25,000 years.

The more we’ve learned about the climate system, the more we’ve come to realize what an unstable, fickle bitch it is. Back in the 1950s-70s, the prevailing opinion was that climate change is a slow, gradual process. Now, it is understood that is seldom the case, and in fact vast the majority of climate changes occur in the form of rapid vacillation(s) between quasi-stable states of operation. It is disruptive, forces mass extinctions on a regular basis, and is the driver of the evolution of all species. It can (and will) only get worse.

The only remarkable aspect about the climate system over the last 300 years is how “stable” it’s been, compared to what it could be. The only thing humanity can do is learn how to use resources more prudently, and prepare adaptive measures. Because it’s coming, and this is merely the prequel.

This is a pretty hilarious argument. Just because the climate system does change rapidly once every now and again, doesn't mean we should cause it ourselves! That would be like saying we should be allowed to drive drunk because car accidents happen regardless of inebriation, and will always be bad. I consider you to be a fairly intelligent guy Phil and I think after a moment of thought you'd agree.

The consequences will be just as harsh and avoidable as any instance of naturally originating climate change. Why do that to ourselves, especially if we know how 'violent' and 'disruptive' it would be to our lives according to your own words?

Also, I can read between lines. Clearly you are not convinced of the anthropogenicity of modern day global warming. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that (internally) you only 'admit' to roughly ~25% human influence. That would be pretty laughable given the gamut of evidence suggesting otherwise. I'd love to hear your complete honest thoughts on the matter though... And rest assured you will not hear regurgitated CNN talking points in return.

[Meatyorologist]

Seattle may stay below 75F all next week. That is an incredible win for the dead of summer in our warming climate during a developing mod-strong El Niño.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Seattle may stay below 75F all next week. That is an incredible win for the dead of summer in our warming climate during a developing mod-strong El Niño.

My guess is at or below 75 at SEA from Monday-Wednesday.   

SEA had a 4-day streak below 75 during the same week in 2015.

[YahRaEl]

Wish I could find somewhere that consistently stayed around 65-75° that's my favorite temperature range. Below 65° I start to complain it's to cool-cold, above 75° I start to complain it's to warm/hot. 70° is spot on perfect.

[YahRaEl]

Still feel like we might get one more decent heat spike with upper 80s and some 90s in early August before things relax rest of August and going into fall.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

Wish I could find somewhere that consistently stayed around 65-75° that's my favorite temperature range. Below 65° I start to complain it's to cool-cold, above 75° I start to complain it's to warm/hot. 70° is spot on perfect.

Where @NWbyNW lives is pretty close.   It can be in the 90s here and in the low 70s at his house.   Within a mile of the Sound from Everett northward always seems to be much cooler than the rest of the area.

[YahRaEl]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Where @NWbyNW lives is pretty close.   It can be in the 90s here and in the low 70s at his house.   Within a mile of the Sound from Everett northward always seems to be much cooler than the rest of the area.

I'd love to live up around Everett especially in fall/spring with the PSCZ.

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My guess is at or below 75 at SEA from Monday-Wednesday.   

I think you are really going to like Thursday. A 'cool' airmass with a lot of mixing. Should be mid-upper 70s and low humidity with a breeze and plentiful (albeit broken) sunshine.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Wednesday will be the coolest day of the week. Monday may have a late morning warm spike before evapotranspiration takes into effect (that which has a decent chance at underperforming in the afternoon as well.) Tuesday and Wednesday are similar, though the details Wednesday are generally more favorable. Winds atop the boundary layer relax and turn more northerly Wednesday, as do sfc pressure gradients. And this is after a stout marine push Tuesday night... And not to mention the overall airmass cooling a tad.

Thursday and Friday the 'meat' of the trough swing on through, but so does the 'meat' of the upper level windfield, which should maximize mixing. Not going to be warm by any means, with clouds struggling to leave before the early afternoon. But still warmer than Wednesday. I wouldn't be surprised to not see the sun at all from dusk Tuesday through the early afternoon on Thursday. Or maybe even for more than a few hours from dusk tomorrow through the same time Thursday.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I think you are really going to like Thursday. A 'cool' airmass with a lot of mixing. Should be mid-upper 70s and low humidity with a breeze and plentiful (albeit broken) sunshine.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Wednesday will be the coolest day of the week. Monday may have a late morning warm spike before evapotranspiration takes into effect (that which has a decent chance at underperforming in the afternoon as well.) Tuesday and Wednesday are similar, though the details Wednesday are generally more favorable. Winds atop the boundary layer relax and turn more northerly Wednesday, as do sfc pressure gradients. And this is after a stout marine push Tuesday night... And not to mention the overall airmass cooling a tad.

Thursday and Friday the 'meat' of the trough swing on through, but so does the 'meat' of the upper level windfield, which should maximize mixing. Not going to be warm by any means, with clouds struggling to leave before the early afternoon. But still warmer than Wednesday. I wouldn't be surprised to not see the sun at all from dusk Tuesday through the early afternoon on Thursday. Or maybe even for more than a few hours from dusk tomorrow through the same time Thursday.

Are you making forecasts just from projected soundings?    ECMWF does the work for you and its incredibly good at predicting cloud cover.    Wednesday is quite sunny per the ECMWF but only mid 70s.   Thursday is sunny from the start.   Monday is really the only day that is cloudy in the afternoon.

Tuesday onward does not look like a set up with a solid marine layer taking a long time to burn off.    Its broken and quite sunny.

[YahRaEl]

Whatever happened KOMO 4's Scott Sistek? I miss reading his thoughts on the weather him and Shannon O'Donnell the only ones I relied on from that station and I usually don't like news forecasters. Kiro, King and Q13 Mets suck tho. If I was in Portland I'd only be for Mark Nelsen. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Are you making forecasts just from projected soundings?    ECMWF does the work for you and it incredibly good at predicting cloud cover.    Wednesday is quite sunny per the ECMWF but only mid 70s.   Thursday is sunny from the start.   Monday is really the only day that is cloudy in the afternoon.

Yes, in addition to 850mb/700mb winds and sfc pressure. I'd rather not put all my faith into what one model says without looking at the details, even if it is the 'infallible' Euro.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yes, in addition to 850mb/700mb winds and sfc pressure. I'd rather not put all my faith into what one model says without looking at the details, even if it is the 'infallible' Euro.

You can tell right away by looking at the cloud loop on the ECMWF that this won't be solid marine layer taking all day to burn off situation.   Upper levels are too cool.   Monday should be the coolest day thanks to lots of mid level clouds and some rain moving in during the peak time for heating.  

[TT-SEA]

Already up to 75 here with no marine influence this morning.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is running +8 compared to yesterday.    Should get to 80 today and tomorrow with even less marine influence tomorrow. 

[TT-SEA]

Noon on Monday per 12Z ECMWF.    Doesn't get any better to minimize warming.   

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Personally I think it's enhancing the warming of the world's oceans.   I also know the emerging Nino is a factor.   But this exceeds all previous Nino years.   Even 2014/2015.   Of course it's likely related to many factors and I think Tonga is one of those factors.   Eventually they will probably be able to quantify the Tonga effect.    A couple people on here mock Tonga every time it's mentioned but I think that is just shortsighted.  We know water vapor in the stratosphere is a greenhouse gas.   It has to have some effect.   Yes... the Earth was already warming and Tonga has likely accelerated that temporarily.    I read it takes 5-10 years for water vapor to settle out of the stratosphere.    And that does not mean we won't have cold periods locally.   It's much more nuanced than that.  

It's really interesting to compare SSTA maps from previous Nino years.   Here is a striking example comparing the developing super Nino in the summer of 1982 to right now. 

100%

[Phishy Wx]

would

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Nice batch of rain during the mid-afternoon on Monday.    Second map is projected high temps... might be a tad too warm.

[Omegaraptor]

Tonga was the largest global eruption since Pinatubo. Regardless of what gases the thing belched into the stratosphere it's going to have some sort of impact on global climate. 

Doesn't mean the #1 explanation for extreme warmth events like October 2022 and May 2023 is Tonga.

[TT-SEA]

Big improvement on the 12Z ECMWF compared to its 06Z run for areas south of Everett.   

[TT-SEA]

Tuesday afternoon...

[TT-SEA]

And Wednesday afternoon...

[LowerGarfield]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Noon on Monday per 12Z ECMWF.    Doesn't get any better to minimize warming.   

For Eastern WA the nice thing is it keeps us pretty normal for what you'd expect this time of year. I would certainly take this.

[TT-SEA]

Trough moves through faster later in the week on the 12Z ECMWF.    That would mean 4 days below 75 at SEA which would match the 2015 trough at the same time.   

Here is Thursday and Friday...